Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Waking up, the crypto market once again experienced a "Monday flash crash."
After BTC briefly rose above $97,000 last Monday, it ultimately closed the week above $95,000. Just as the market hoped BTC could lead a recovery in the overall crypto market, a long-awaited "significant correction" struck again—within just a few hours, BTC fell below $92,000, temporarily reporting around $92,750; ETH dipped below $3,200, temporarily reporting $3,213; SOL quickly fell below $140, temporarily reporting around $133. Coinglass data shows that in the past 4 hours, the market saw liquidations of $593 million, with long positions accounting for as much as $566 million; the number of liquidated individuals in 24 hours reached 238,400.
The main trigger for this "Black Monday" may still be a series of erratic actions by Trump.
Federal Reserve Chair Nomination Situation Changes: "Dovish" Hassett May Be Out, "Hawkish" Kevin Warsh's Odds Surge
As the "heart of the American economy," the Federal Reserve has always played the role of the "hand of God" in the US economy and even the global economic system with its monetary privileges, independent status, and detached attitude. The choice of the chairperson of the Federal Reserve is the most critical figure behind this "hand of God." With current chair Powell set to leave, the nomination of the new chair is crucial and is seen as a "market barometer."
Previously, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett was considered a popular candidate due to his "pro-Trump" and "support for interest rate cuts" dovish stance. However, Trump has not provided a clear statement. Recently, the nomination for the new Federal Reserve chair has narrowed down to include Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, former governor Kevin Warsh, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, and Hassett. Recommended reading: “Countdown to the Federal Reserve's Leadership Change: 5 Major Candidates Revealed, Who Will Be the Final Winner?”.
Latest news shows that Hassett may be out, while Kevin Warsh's odds have surged. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated that Trump is likely to keep him in his current position, which would remove him from the race for the next Federal Reserve chair. Last week, Trump expressed reservations about nominating Hassett to replace current chair Powell. At an event at the White House, he told the National Economic Council director, "To be honest, I actually hope you can stay in your current position." Hassett also mentioned on Sunday regarding the White House: "There are many excellent candidates, and the president is likely to make the right decision, thinking that this (the White House) is my best position." He felt "surprised and grateful" for Trump's comments about his future, calling the president "a really good person." Recommended reading: “Is the 'Strict Principal' of BTC Coming? If He Leads the Federal Reserve, the Crypto Party May Come to an Abrupt End”.
After Trump's speech, traders on the prediction market site Kalshi raised the likelihood of Warsh getting the job to 60%, while Hassett and Waller's chances were only 16% and 14%, respectively. Polymarket traders expressed similar dynamics, with Warsh's support at 60%, Hassett at 15%, and Waller at 13%. Previously, Warsh and Hassett's odds were evenly matched.
Powell's term as Federal Reserve chair will end on May 15. The selection process is led by US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Interestingly, last night, Treasury Secretary Yellen stated: "Trump is committed to ensuring the independence of the Federal Reserve. We have four outstanding candidates for Federal Reserve chair. I believe the Senate will be satisfied with any of these four candidates."
Previously, Trump stated he would appoint Powell's successor this month but did not provide a specific date. As Trump approaches the one-year mark in office, the market may not have developed enough resilience to face his indecisive approach, leading to a significant drop in confidence in the crypto market, which directly caused the market crash.
Trump's "Tariff War Hat Trick": Greenland Situation Dispute, EU-US Tariff War Resurfaces
On another front, from the perspective of the global economic situation, instability factors continue to increase.
Greenland Becomes Political Focus for Europe and America, Tariff Storm Reignites
As a major enclave of the EU, Greenland has long been viewed by Nordic country Denmark as its "backyard," but this status may soon change.
Last May, Trump boldly claimed not to rule out the possibility of "militarily seizing the island"; six months later, at the beginning of this year, this bold claim was again reiterated by White House Press Secretary Levitt: discussions are currently underway regarding the purchase of Greenland. The possibility of using force to seize Greenland is not ruled out, and all options are on the table.
After the "Lightning Strike on the Venezuelan Presidential Palace, Capturing Maduro," this external statement undoubtedly caused alarm among Greenland, several EU countries, and even globally.
Previously, the Trump administration considered spending money to persuade Greenlanders to break away from Denmark and "join" the US, with the cost being a one-time payment of $10,000 to $100,000 to 57,000 Greenlanders. It must be said that in Trump's unconventional approach, there is always an "economic account" behind the politics.
Ultimately, this "Greenland crisis" evolved from a territorial dispute into a "high-tariff trade war"—on January 18, Trump publicly stated that due to issues related to Greenland, starting February 1, the US will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US, with plans to raise the rate to 25% on June 1. These tariff measures will remain in effect until an agreement is reached on the "comprehensive and complete purchase of Greenland." This shows his resolute attitude, which can be described as "not stopping until the goal is achieved."
As a result of this news, several EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on goods worth €93 billion exported to the US.
Last April, the same "tariff trade war" was initiated by Trump, and this factor remains a key influence on the crypto market and even the global economy.
Moreover, Trump's actions not only pertain to a "territorial dispute" but also carry a sense of "economic counterattack."
Trump: EU's Huge Fines on US Tech Companies Are Extremely Unfair
On January 15, President Trump stated that the EU's hefty fines on American tech companies are extremely unfair and discriminatory against American excellence in technology and taxation. Relevant data shows that in 2024, the total fines imposed by the EU on US tech companies will reach €3.8 billion, while the total income tax of all publicly listed European internet tech companies during the same period is only €3.2 billion. Currently, American tech giants like Apple, Google, and Meta are facing fines or tax decisions from the EU amounting to billions of euros. It is evident that Trump has long been dissatisfied with the EU's "high-pressure policy" regarding economic sovereignty.
"Crypto-Friendly Bill" Encountering Obstacles May Become a Potential Factor for Market Decline: CLARITY Faces Consensus Crisis
Aside from macro-level influencing events, the CLARITY bill, which is closely related to the crypto market, encountering obstacles may also provide some support for the surge in sell-offs and the price crash.
Viewpoint: US Senate's Crypto Market Structure Bill Delayed, Regulatory Uncertainty Rises, Related Assets Under Pressure
Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn previously stated that the Senate Banking Committee's scheduled hearing on the crypto market structure bill has been postponed, highlighting deep divisions between Congress and the industry on several key issues, particularly focusing on stablecoin yield mechanisms and DeFi-related provisions.
This delay occurred just hours after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew his support for the bill. Armstrong publicly opposed the bill's references to tokenized securities, DeFi restrictions, and stablecoin yields. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott subsequently announced the postponement of the hearing, but no new timetable has been announced. Since the Senate will be in recess next week, the earliest possible restart time may be between January 26 and 30.
Alex Thorn pointed out that within just 48 hours, the bill draft was released late at night, over 100 amendments were submitted, and stakeholders continued to discover new points of contention at the last moment, significantly increasing the difficulty of political coordination. On the market side, after the news of the delay was announced, crypto assets generally declined, with Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping about 2% that day; related US stocks also faced pressure, with Coinbase down 6.5%, Robinhood down 7.8%, and Circle down 9.7%.
It is believed that although there is a considerable consensus on the "market structure" itself, there are insurmountable political divides surrounding non-core but highly sensitive issues such as stablecoin yields, DeFi compliance, and granting the SEC regulatory tools in the area of tokenized securities. "The apparent gap in disagreements is not large, but the substantive divide is deep."
Previously, several tokenization companies, including Securitize, Dinari, and Superstate, refuted Coinbase's opposition to the CLARITY bill. For more details, recommended reading: “Why Is There Such a Serious Disagreement in the Industry After the CLARITY Review Was Suddenly Delayed?”.
Summary: The Correction May Continue, Traders Taking Profits in Stages
Last weekend, trader Eugene stated in a personal channel that due to the market performance of related investment targets not meeting expectations, he chose to take profits in stages and has basically exited his long positions in altcoins. However, the core Bitcoin long positions are still held, and cash positions have been significantly increased to wait for the next round of trading opportunities.
As BTC fluctuated and rebounded from the $85,000 to $90,000 range to above $97,000, considering the macro expectations for interest rate cuts, the global political and economic situation, and the rising prices of precious metals like gold and silver, taking profits may be the best choice.
From this perspective, the correction in the crypto market may continue in the short term, and whether it can return to a bull market curve may, as last year, still depend on Trump's "TACO-style performance."
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
