In January 2026, under East 8 Time, Canaan Creative received a delisting warning from Nasdaq: if the stock price cannot rise above and maintain at least $1 per share before July 2026, this veteran Bitcoin mining machine manufacturer will face the risk of being kicked out of the main board trading system. At this time, Canaan's trading price on the US stock market was only about $0.79, which not only had long fallen below the warning line but also spread a sense of urgency that "time is running out" in the market. Concurrently, the largest institutional investor, Streeterville Capital, liquidated approximately $439 million of its holdings, a move seen as a decisive vote from the capital market against Canaan's business model. The delisting red line, institutional withdrawal, and the profit squeeze following the fourth halving in the industry together formed a sharp proposition: against the backdrop of the Bitcoin mining halving cycle and the dual contraction of capital market patience, this once-leading mining machine company is being forced into a high-pressure game concerning its survival.
Stock Price Falls Below $1: The Delisting Countdown Truly Begins
Nasdaq has clear and cold rules for low-priced stocks: if a company's stock price remains below $1 for an extended period, it will trigger a delisting warning, followed by a limited grace period for rectification. The notice received by Canaan in January 2026 had a core requirement: the stock price must return to above $1 per share before July 2026 and remain stable within the specified time frame; otherwise, delisting procedures may be initiated. On the surface, this is a "procedural" warning, but in essence, it presents a clear and brutal life-and-death line in front of the capital market. When the market focuses on Canaan's real-time stock price, it sees the figure of approximately $0.79, indicating that the stock price not only continues to fall below $1 but has also formed a significant distance from the warning line, leaving the company and investors with a countdown that is increasingly compressed by time rather than a leisurely repair window.
At this price level, the sentiment in the secondary market began to exhibit a near-qualitative interpretation: the stock price being long-term below $1 was seen by many investors as a direct signal that "the company's transformation ability is not recognized." Some viewed the trend during this period as a reality vote on Canaan's narrative, believing that the management's story about future layouts did not reflect sufficient persuasiveness in actual performance and business structure, ultimately being ruthlessly discounted in price. Thus, the delisting risk was no longer just a compliance issue but became part of the market consensus, a collective judgment pointing to "capital no longer believes in you," exacerbating the negative expectations surrounding Canaan.
Institutional Liquidation of $439 Million: Big Money Votes with Their Feet
What truly pricked the market's nerves was not just the delisting warning issued by the trading system but also the sensitive and drastic actions on the funding side. Reports show that Canaan's largest institutional investor, Streeterville Capital, has liquidated approximately $439 million of its holdings. From the timing, this was a decisive choice made during a phase when the company's stock price continued to weaken and delisting risks gradually surfaced. For a single stock, the "complete withdrawal" of the largest institutional investor is often not just a position adjustment but is interpreted as a symbolic negative conclusion about the company's long-term business model.
Simultaneously spreading with this action were doubts in the capital market about whether the "pure mining machine model still possesses sustainability." The logic behind Streeterville Capital's liquidation, in the eyes of many observers, resonated highly with the overall industry environment: against the backdrop of Bitcoin mining revenues being further compressed by the fourth halving and marginal pressure on mining machine demand, companies heavily reliant on a single mining hardware model were viewed as representatives of "high volatility, low certainty," lacking confidence in future cash flow and valuation stability. Thus, when this institution holding $439 million chose to exit, many small and medium shareholders felt not just the short-term selling pressure brought by a large sell-off but also a psychological impact of being "abandoned by professional investors."
The ensuing chain reaction was evident. On one hand, the withdrawal of large funds weakened the liquidity thickness of the individual stock, making it easier for any subsequent negative news to amplify price fluctuations, and the market's absorption capacity decreased; on the other hand, under the narrative of "the largest institution has run away," the holding mentality of small and medium investors became more fragile, increasing behaviors of reducing positions or even cutting losses during rebounds. This self-reinforcing cycle on the funding side made it even more difficult for Canaan's stock price to build a solid bottom in the short term, further compressing its operational space to recover and push back above $1.
Bitcoin Halving Squeezes Profits: The Ceiling of the Mining Machine Business Approaches
From a longer-term perspective, Canaan's current predicament is not an isolated event but is layered on the systemic pressure following the fourth halving in the Bitcoin mining industry. Each halving of block rewards means that the amount of Bitcoin miners can obtain per unit of computing power is halved; if the coin price and transaction fees are insufficient to fully offset this change, the overall revenue for miners will substantially decline. For mining machine manufacturers, this revenue compression directly translates into hesitation and reduction in equipment procurement demand: the payback period for mining extends, the pace of phasing out old models slows, and the marginal uplift for new machine orders is naturally limited.
The long-term weakness of Canaan's stock price is closely linked to this highly cyclical business characteristic. During high-profit phases of mining, mining machine manufacturers can enjoy the dual benefits of increased orders and elevated valuations; however, in the profit-squeezed phase following the halving, the market tends to amplify concerns about their revenue volatility, viewing them as typical targets "highly exposed to a single track." The report mentioned that the entire mining industry is currently in a profit compression period following the fourth halving, and investors have become more stringent regarding any single-line business model reliant on Bitcoin block rewards. For companies like Canaan, this strictness is reflected in valuation terms, as the capital market no longer grants high premiums for peak period profits and significantly lowers tolerance for trough periods.
Against the backdrop of industry-wide pressure, the pricing logic for "pure mining machine companies" has undergone explicit changes. In the past, during upward cycles, a concentrated single business was viewed as an advantage, maximizing the capture of bull market dividends; however, when the industry as a whole enters a squeeze period, such concentration is seen as a risk amplifier. Thus, Canaan's stock price has long hovered at low levels and has gradually approached or even fallen below $1, interpreted by many investors as a concentrated reflection of the capital market's "decreasing tolerance" for this model.
Competitors Bet on AI Chips: Canaan's Transformation Story Fails to Resonate
The internal differentiation within the industry has also been amplified at this juncture. The report pointed out that Canaan's competitor, Bitmain, has achieved a certain degree of diversification through its AI chip business, attempting to use the demand for artificial intelligence computing power to hedge against the uncertainties brought by the halving of block rewards in the context of high volatility in the mining cycle. This path may not necessarily succeed, but at least in terms of capital narrative, it provides investors with a logical anchor of "there is a second growth curve beyond mining machines." In contrast, Canaan's pace in technology and business expansion appears more conservative, with its R&D investment ratio disclosed in the 2025 financial report being below the industry average, a point explicitly mentioned in the report.
When the market examines leading players in the same cycle and track together, a low R&D investment ratio is no longer just a numerical difference in accounting terms but is extended to be interpreted as a reflection of the company's attitude towards new business and technology layouts. In the current context where AI chips and computing infrastructure are widely viewed as potential incremental tracks, investors are increasingly inclined to see R&D budgets as an advance bet on "future stories." Canaan's conservatism in this dimension makes its transformation narrative appear weak, and the market naturally lacks confidence in its ability to "tell a new story."
Therefore, when outsiders mention that "the stock price remaining below $1 indicates a lack of confidence in its transformation ability," they are pointing not only to the current figure of $0.79 itself but also to the gap between the narrative and reality behind the number: on one hand, the company needs to prove to the capital market during the delisting countdown that it is not just a mining machine manufacturer manipulated by cycles; on the other hand, the existing structure of R&D investment and progress in business diversification struggle to support a sufficiently persuasive long-term story. This misalignment is being reflected in an extreme manner by the price.
50,000 Mining Machine Order Fails: Order Good News Cannot Save Model Doubts
If we go back to an earlier time point, in October 2025, there was a piece of good news that briefly made the market optimistic. At that time, Canaan announced that it had secured a large order of 50,000 mining machines. After the news was disclosed, some investors viewed it as a signal of a turnaround in fundamentals, believing that being able to secure such a large order in a challenging industry environment at least proved the company's competitive advantage in product capability and customer resources. For a time, the judgment that "orders are back" and "demand is not too bad" circulated in the market, with some expectations that this might become the starting point for the stock price to reverse its downward trend.
However, the subsequent development of the trend provided a cooling answer to this optimism: under the multiple backgrounds of the fourth halving cycle, a single business model, and low R&D investment, this 50,000 order did not change the overall downward trend of Canaan's stock price. The reason is that the market's focus is shifting from "looking at order volume" to "looking at long-term business models." Even if a single order boosts revenue in the short term, it is difficult to change the underlying structure of the business's high dependence on the mining boom; when investors have begun to view the company from a longer-term perspective, the weight of one-time good news in the valuation system is significantly compressed.
This also reflects the shift in the capital market's pricing framework: in the past, order data was often regarded as a core indicator for assessing a company's prosperity, especially in the hardware manufacturing industry, where a single large order could bring significant elasticity to the stock price. Now, in the face of mining halving, diversification of competitors, and multiple manufacturers seeking new directions in AI computing power, investors are more willing to allocate resources to those companies capable of building second and third business lines amid cyclical fluctuations. Even if Canaan secured a 50,000 mining machine order in October 2025, it is difficult to fully offset the systemic doubts about its long-term model within the new valuation discourse.
From Delisting Warning to Self-Rescue Game: A Renegotiation of Trust Between Mining Machine Companies and Capital
Pulling the timeline from 2025 to 2026, the situation Canaan faces is no longer just a negative or positive impact from a single piece of news but the result of multiple structural factors overlapping. On one end is the stock price falling below $1, facing the July 2026 deadline set by Nasdaq, with the delisting red line becoming an imminent regulatory constraint; on the other end is the liquidation of $439 million by Streeterville Capital, representing a large fund withdrawal that deepens the market impression that "professional investors are no longer willing to provide long-term companionship"; further up is the systemic squeeze on the entire mining industry's profits following the fourth halving, with the cyclical volatility endured by the single mining machine business further amplified. At the intersection of these three pressures, Canaan's survival window in the capital market has been significantly narrowed.
In the coming months, the market's observation of Canaan will focus more on several key variables. First, whether the company can demonstrate a clear direction for diversification in its business, whether along computing power, AI chips, or other related technology extensions; capital needs to see not just vague verbal plans but gradually materializing paths and rhythms. Second, whether R&D investment will reflect a more positive tilt in financial reports, responding to the criticism of "R&D accounting for less than the industry average" through changes in budget structure. Third, how the company will handle the delicate balance between capital structure, investor relations, and stock price performance within the compliance framework during the delisting countdown—these specific measures have not yet been disclosed in the report and cannot be anticipated in advance by the outside world, leaving it to time to validate.
Expanding the perspective to the Bitcoin mining sector itself, the predicament faced by Canaan is, to some extent, a question that all "pure mining machine companies" must answer: in a market driven by algorithms that periodically initiate halving, macro liquidity that drives prices, and technological competition that reshapes the computing power landscape, can merely relying on the sale of mining machines still support a long-term business story that is trusted by the capital market? Before the next complete cycle arrives, how these companies provide new proof in terms of business models, technological paths, and profit structures will directly determine whether they can stand at the center stage again in the next bull-bear rotation. Canaan's delisting warning is merely a high-decibel footnote to this renegotiation and a reality that the entire mining equipment industry must confront.
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