Veteran crypto researcher and founder of Cyber Capital Justin Bons has made a bold prediction regarding the future of Bitcoin (BTC). Bons argues that Bitcoin has structural and long-term security problems that will cause it to fail within the next 7 to 11 years.
Falling miner incentives could expose Bitcoin to attacks
According to Bons, Bitcoin’s security depends on miner revenue, as they get paid through block subsidies and transaction fees. He observed that the revenue from mining activity is shrinking as a result of halving events, which occur every four years.
The crypto veteran maintains that Bitcoin’s price cannot realistically continue to double every four years. He noted that doubling indefinitely would place it above global GDP.
Additionally, it is unlikely for transaction fees to stay high in a competitive market. As such, miner revenue — which acts like the "security budget" of BTC — will keep falling.
BTC will collapse within 7 to 11 years from now!
First, the mining industry will fall, as the security budget shrinks
That is when the attacks begin; censorship & double-spends
Core will then have to increase inflation beyond 21M, splitting the chain & that will be the end! 🧵… pic.twitter.com/HqFmhW480L
Bons opines that this will expose the flagship cryptocurrency to attack. This could lead to censorship, panic and the coin’s eventual collapse. He explained that the attacks will begin once miner revenue drops low enough, and this might happen in the next two to three halving events.
In Bons's opinion, attacking Bitcoin after that would require a few million dollars, while the reward could hit hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. This is what will make malicious actors want to take on the leading crypto.
He offered two solutions to this challenge for the blockchain, which include increasing Bitcoin’s 21 million supply or remain capped and deal with the attacks.
Bitcoin community pushes back against collapse prediction
The crypto analyst also addressed a possible counterargument of Bitcoiners. He highlighted that Bitcoiners may claim that the security of Bitcoin is not limited to just miner revenue but is multidimensional.
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Generally, Bitcoiners consider hashrate and energy costs, among others, as the key ways BTC maintains security.
However, Bons argues that raw hashrate does not protect a network. Rather, it is how expensive it is to attack, that discourages malicious actors. In his analysis, in the next 11 years, this will become affordable, making Bitcoin attack-prone, which could lead to its collapse.
It is worth mentioning that although Justin Bons appears to be sounding a security warning, many in the Bitcoin community do not agree with his prediction. A user noted that Bons's prediction failed to factor in possible innovations that Bitcoin could adopt to counter the alleged threats from attacks.
Bitcoiners have strongly defended the flagship crypto asset, with JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon alleging he received death threats in the past for his stance against the coin.
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