Bitcoin surged to around 96,500 early yesterday morning before quickly retreating to around 95,000. The subsequent intraday recovery was limited, with prices mostly consolidating in the range of 95,500–94,700, showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and market enthusiasm for chasing prices noticeably cooled. As the evening session in the U.S. began, stimulated by macro news, Bitcoin rose again, briefly spiking to around 98,000 in the early hours, but selling pressure at high levels soon emerged, causing prices to pull back. This morning, the downward adjustment continued, with prices currently consolidating around 96,500, overall presenting a high-level oscillation structure after the rebound.
From a macro perspective, several Federal Reserve officials spoke last night with a generally dovish tone. Milan reiterated that there could be a cumulative rate cut of 150 basis points this year, and Kashkari also indicated that there is room for further rate cuts later this year. These statements reinforced the market's pricing of easing expectations, boosting risk appetite in the short term and driving a rebound in crypto assets. However, it is important to note that this is more of an emotional recovery driven by expectations, rather than a reflection of policies that have already been implemented, and there remains significant divergence in the market regarding future data and policy pace.
On the technical front, Bitcoin quickly surged after breaking the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, but structurally, it leans more towards an emotional rally following a breakout rather than the initiation of a trending market. Although the daily moving averages have turned upward, they remain within a mid-term consolidation range; the four-hour RSI has entered a clearly overbought zone, and momentum is beginning to slow; hourly indicators have turned and entered a corrective state, indicating a demand for profit-taking in the short term. The current price is approaching the important psychological and technical resistance zone of 98,000–100,000, which has historically been a key area for institutions and medium-term funds to reduce positions, so caution is warranted for concentrated selling pressure at high levels.
In terms of rhythm, the focus today is on whether the downward correction and recovery will continue. The short-term support below remains at the consolidation range of 95,500–94,700 as the first defense line; if this area is lost, the space for a pullback will further open up, potentially revisiting the 94,000–93,000 area; the resistance for the rebound above continues to be at 98,000 and the 100,000 round number. Until an effective breakout with volume is formed, the current market should be defined as a rebound within a large range, rather than a one-sided bullish trend. It is not advisable to chase prices high; instead, it is more suitable to wait for structural confirmation after a pullback.
As for Ethereum, its movement still correlates with Bitcoin, but the strength is noticeably weaker. It briefly surged to around 3,400 during the rebound in the early hours but also failed to hold that level and subsequently retreated. Structurally, ETH is still operating below the rebound high from December, leaning more towards a pressured rebound structure. Short-term support is focused on the 3,270–3,240 area, while resistance is primarily at the 3,400 level and the previous high area of 3,450, where selling pressure remains evident. Until an effective breakout occurs, it should still be treated as a rebound, and caution is advised when chasing prices.
In summary, both Bitcoin and Ethereum currently belong to a rebound market stimulated by macro expectations, rather than a trend reversal. Prices are in a high area, and increased volatility and intensified divergence are likely events. In terms of operations, more emphasis should be placed on rhythm and position rather than the direction itself.
Tonight, the focus will be on the weekly initial jobless claims data and further remarks from Federal Reserve officials regarding their impact on market expectations, which could trigger significant volatility again. Attention should be paid to position control and risk management.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jian Crypto (follow the official account: Jian Crypto) and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only; risks are borne by the reader. Trade with reasonable position control, and avoid heavy or full positions. Developing good investment habits is essential for a positive cycle!
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