On January 14, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, the latest on-chain data regarding long-term Bitcoin holders and the off-exchange liquidity pattern is reshaping the pricing narrative of this asset. Over the past year, the selling pressure from the OG group, who have held their coins for more than five years, has significantly cooled down, and the average holding time of old chips has been further extended. The "old coins," which used to be sold off at highs, have begun to collectively go into hiding. In parallel, the STXO indicator, which measures the pace of long-term chip monetization, has notably declined after experiencing a phase peak, while the cycles of options and altcoin markets have generally lengthened, gradually revealing a market profile that is slower and more reliant on liquidity. Against this backdrop, the traditional four-year narrative centered around supply halving is fading, and a new liquidity and institution-led paradigm composed of compliant products like ETFs and DATs is beginning to emerge as a more critical clue for explaining price fluctuations.
OG Selling Halved: Old Coins Are Stagnant…
If in the previous cycle many OGs chose to cash out in batches during the rapid price peak, this time, the on-chain behavior tells a completely different story. According to on-chain statistics, the 90-day moving average of STXO, which represents the intensity of long-term chip expenditure, once climbed to a peak of about 2,300 BTC during this cycle, and has since fallen back to around 1,000 BTC, roughly halving the selling pressure. This change does not mean that OGs have disappeared; rather, it indicates that they have significantly slowed down their selling pace over the past year, with more chips continuing to be locked in cold wallets, and the frequency of transfers for monetization has noticeably decreased. Unlike the previous cycle's high-volatility environment where there was a pattern of cashing out at highs, in this cycle, when prices experienced multiple rapid surges, the old coins on-chain did not show a proportional wave of exits, with STXO only showing a brief uptick before cooling down again.
Behind this behavioral contrast is the OGs' repricing of future yield structures. On one hand, after ETFs and DATs opened up compliant buying channels, long-term holders began to view institutional funds as more stable and larger potential buyers. Compared to competing with short-term retail investors at emotional peaks, they are more willing to wait for a longer cycle of institutional premiums. On the other hand, as discussions around mainstream institutions' long-term allocations to Bitcoin heat up, signals including buy ratings and target price upgrades for leading holding companies are reinforcing an expectation: the upward potential for Bitcoin may no longer be confined to the two years surrounding the halving, but rather extended to a broader macro liquidity and compliance expansion cycle. For OGs, selling is no longer about "catching the top of this bull market," but more like choosing to rebalance during a longer asset revaluation process, which naturally diminishes their direct influence on short-term price fluctuations.
ETF and DAT Attracting Capital: Liquidity…
Meanwhile, compliant products represented by ETFs and DATs are transitioning from marginal innovations to the primary entry point for mainstream funds. Since the approval of Bitcoin-related ETFs, the pathways for off-exchange funds to flow in have been significantly simplified, gradually concentrating from individual and institutional self-built wallets and OTC channels to a few clearly regulated and mature compliant channels. Structured products like DATs are bringing conservative funds that were previously hard to reach on-chain into Bitcoin positions through brokerage and wealth management systems, allowing incremental funds to circulate more within regulatory frameworks rather than being scattered across various opaque trading venues.
It is under this structure that analysts have proposed the judgment that "this cycle has provided OGs with excellent selling opportunities": on one side, there is a continuous influx of passive and long-term buying through ETFs and DATs, while on the other side, there is the OG group with historically low costs and highly concentrated chips, which naturally forms an ideal counterparty. In other words, whenever an OG chooses to cash out, they are likely facing an institutional world that is slowly accumulating behind ETF subscriptions and DAT positions, rather than the emotional retail buyers of the previous cycle. And when OGs as a whole choose to extend their holding periods, this portion of potential chips available for compliant funds to take over is instead locked deeper.
Liquidity thus presents a dual-track concentration: one track is the positions accumulated on compliant vehicles like ETFs and DATs, while the other track consists of trading and arbitrage pools primarily priced in USDT, USDC, etc. The former enhances Bitcoin's stability as an "asset allocation product," allowing some chips to settle long-term within the regulatory framework; the latter maintains the depth and elasticity needed for short-term market games. The direct result of this centralization is that the elasticity of prices during trading is reshaped: under the premise of continuously expanding compliant product scales and smoother subscription and redemption rhythms, the impact of a single large sell order on prices is relatively diluted. However, once macro-level or regulatory expectations change, collective subscriptions and redemptions in compliant channels may amplify directional volatility.
Options Trading Doubles: Professional Players…
Beyond the spot and compliant channels, changes in the Bitcoin options market also reflect the structural upgrade of this cycle. According to statistics, Bitcoin options activity has doubled year-on-year over the past year, with overall trading volume increasing by about 2.5 times from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025, rapidly evolving from a niche market once considered marginal to one of the main battlegrounds for professional and institutional funds. Whether it is cross-period strategies targeting halving nodes or volatility trading around macro data releases, options products have become important tools for funds to express expectations and adjust risk exposure.
The popularization of systematic options strategies has changed the transmission mechanism between OG selling pressure and spot volatility. In the past, concentrated outflows of old chips often led to short-term "flash crashes" in the spot market, but now, institutions and large players can hedge downside risks by buying put options or use straddle and strangle strategies to profit during heightened volatility, allowing them to more calmly absorb spot positions both psychologically and in terms of holdings. This not only dulls the impact of single sell-offs to some extent but may also amplify certain directional trends at specific points in time through options expiration, gamma hedging, and other mechanisms, causing prices to fluctuate around "implied volatility" rather than purely emotional responses.
An increasing number of market participants are thus defining the current stage as a "more mature" market. Pricing power is shifting from being driven by early emotions and narratives to being shaped by a complex system of implied volatility curves, on-chain liquidity, and the inflow and outflow of compliant funds. The activity in options not only signifies a richer toolbox but also indicates a qualitative change in the market's understanding and management of risk, further weakening the traditional singular causal narrative of "the market must behave a certain way around halving."
Altcoin Bull Market Extended: Wealth Effect and…
If the options market reflects the evolution of professional players, then the rhythm of altcoin assets makes the impact of this cycle on retail investors more subtle. Data shows that during this cycle, the average duration of the altcoin bull market phase has significantly extended from about 20 days to approximately 60 days. The strong periods within the same sector or theme are no longer "topping out in just a few daily candles," but instead rotate and clear slowly over a longer time frame. This extension not only means a slowdown in rhythm but also indicates that the transmission method of the wealth effect has been reshaped.
When Bitcoin and Ethereum first embarked on a relatively stable upward trajectory, accumulating new paper profits, this portion of profit began to spread to altcoins along a longer chain. Unlike the early brief cycles of "sharp rise—sharp fall," the current market often continues to attract attention over several weeks, with leading and catching-up assets within the sector repeatedly performing, allowing funds more time to rotate and maneuver. This structure, on one hand, reduces the frequency of extreme daily volatility, weakening the instantaneous risk of "buying high and standing guard"; on the other hand, it makes it easier to attract previously hesitant retail investors back into the market over a longer cycle.
Combined with signs of "retail interest returning" in social media heat and search data, it can be seen that the return of retail investors is no longer a short-term emotional outburst but rather a process slowly enveloped by a longer rhythmic market. They gradually increase their positions during a longer upward window, enhancing their risk tolerance through repeated fluctuations, thus participating alongside institutions and OGs in this cycle reshaped by liquidity and regulatory frameworks.
Halving Narrative Deviating: The Era of Institutions…
Behind all these changes, the most striking aspect is that the narrative around "halving" is quietly deviating. A leading liquidity provider institution bluntly stated in a report, "The traditional four-year halving cycle has been broken." Looking back at the price trajectory since the last cycle, it is increasingly difficult to summarize the overall picture with a simple "start before halving, accelerate after halving, peak in the bull market, and correct in the bear market." Prices, driven by multiple factors such as macro easing and tightening, fluctuating regulatory attitudes, and the launch of compliant products, have repeatedly started and ended major trends ahead of or behind the halving time nodes. The halving itself seems more like a time marker that the market trades in advance and continuously amplifies through narratives, rather than a mechanism-driven switch.
As OG selling pressure significantly decreases, the accumulation power of ETFs and DATs continues to strengthen, and systematic options hedging becomes standard, the marginal impact of the reduction in the number of newly issued Bitcoins is being diluted and preempted. The market often completes the price response to "supply contraction" through spot and derivatives months or even earlier before the anticipated halving arrives, and once it actually enters the halving year, the dominant factors for prices gradually shift to macro liquidity, regulatory trends, and institutional allocation rhythms. At this point, simply predicting the market with "halving must lead to a bull market" or "halving will trap people" is already difficult to grasp the complex capital game.
For this reason, the view that "the future will emphasize fundamentals and compliance" is beginning to gain consensus. Under the new framework, Bitcoin is being considered within a broader context of asset allocation and international liquidity: on one hand, it is essential to pay attention to fundamental signals such as hash rate, miner costs, on-chain activity, and mainstream institutional holdings; on the other hand, it is crucial to observe changes in the scale of ETFs and DATs, the monetary policy rhythms of major economies, and the marginal tightening or loosening of the regulatory environment. This framework no longer sees halving as the sole main line but rather as one part resonating with multiple factors such as liquidity, regulation, and institutional behavior.
From Old Holders to Wall Street: The Next…
In summary, with the slowdown in OG selling, the continuous locking of chips by ETFs and DATs, the rapid expansion of the options market, and the new wealth effects brought by long cycles in altcoins, it can be seen that Bitcoin is undergoing a structural turning point. Old chips are no longer in a hurry to exit, compliant products are firmly attracting new chips within the regulatory framework, and derivatives along with long-cycle altcoin markets are reshaping volatility and participation methods. These combined factors are pushing Bitcoin from an asset characterized by strong cycles and narratives towards a global asset class more constrained by liquidity and institutional environments.
In the competitive landscape of the coming years, the roles of OGs, institutions, and retail investors will also be re-ranked. OGs are gradually transforming from a primary source of selling pressure to a more scarce provider of early chips, with their marginal decisions focusing more on macro valuations and compliance space rather than simple cyclical peaks and troughs. Institutions, through tools like ETFs, DATs, and options, are constructing refined yield and risk structures between spot and derivatives, serving as both a long-term support force and an amplifier of directional volatility at critical moments. Retail investors are repeatedly drawn into longer altcoin and thematic logic cycles, enjoying the wealth effects brought by the upward movement of mainstream assets while also bearing the rhythm pressure adjusted by professional funds.
If in the coming years ETF authorizations are further relaxed and the types and regions of compliant products are expanded, the dominant variables for Bitcoin prices may more clearly tilt towards macro liquidity rather than unfolding around a single halving event. At that time, changes in interest rates, dollar liquidity, regulatory attitudes, and global risk preferences will quickly transmit to prices through ETF subscriptions and redemptions, DAT structural adjustments, and derivatives position reallocations. Halving will still exist, but it will resemble a parameter within this system rather than the central axis driving everything. In this era of liquidity, understanding the paths of capital and institutional boundaries may be more important than remembering the specific date of the next halving.
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