On January 14, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes publicly revealed his core trading strategy for the first quarter of 2026: instead of directly increasing positions in futures or high-leverage contracts, he plans to amplify his bullish exposure to Bitcoin by going long on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Japanese listed company Metaplanet. At the same time, Bitcoin's price broke through the critical resistance level of $95,000, with a single-day large transaction volume of approximately $1.7 billion, accounting for over 40% of the total trading volume that day. Spot trading saw a significant increase, but the sentiment in futures, options, and other derivatives remained relatively cold. This divergence of "spot frenzy and cautious derivatives" provides a new explanation for Hayes' choice of equity targets rather than traditional contracts: why he would bypass the high-leverage derivatives he is most familiar with and instead use the traditional stock market to leverage his bets on Bitcoin during a period of tightening regulation and restructuring of leverage.
Spot Surge, Derivatives Cool Down: A Market with Structural Misalignment
The breakthrough in Bitcoin's price in mid-January exhibited a distinct characteristic of "volume-price resonance": after surpassing $95,000, large transactions rapidly increased, with approximately $1.7 billion in large trades contributing to over 40% of the overall trading volume that day. This indicates that the driving force behind the price increase was not scattered buying but rather substantial funds entering the market at critical points, forming a collective upward momentum.
Greeks.live poured cold water on this rally, suggesting that the day's trading structure resembled a stress response to the sudden price increase rather than a consensus in the market for a new long-term bull market. Specifically, while spot and large transactions "exploded" in a short time, the positions and volatility in futures and options did not expand in tandem, with implied long-term trend pricing still reflecting a significant amount of caution and wait-and-see sentiment. This performance often indicates that the bullish attack is spearheaded by spot trading, without a comprehensive mobilization of leverage.
From the derivatives perspective, the position sizes and risk appetite indicators for futures and options did not "take off" alongside the price but remained in a relatively stable or even slightly conservative range. This structural divergence points to two key signals: first, the current rise is primarily driven by spot buying; second, leveraged funds have not yet entered the market on a large scale. Historical experience shows that when spot prices reach new highs while derivatives do not exhibit significant bullish crowding, the market is often in a transitional phase of "unified belief." It is precisely in such phases that leveraging through other asset forms can both bet on the continuation of the trend and avoid excessive binding to mainstream derivatives sentiment, a path that some veteran traders are currently exploring.
From King of Contracts to Equity Bull: Hayes' Path Turnaround
In the history of crypto trading, Arthur Hayes is almost synonymous with high-leverage contracts. During the BitMEX era, he became a symbol of the "King of Contracts" with his high-leverage perpetual contracts and aggressive trading mechanisms. However, this time, he has chosen to use the spot equities of MSTR and Metaplanet as leverage tools for his bullish Bitcoin exposure, a turnaround that carries the marks of changing times. The high-leverage contracts he once relied on are no longer the mainstream stage under the pressure of regulation and risk events, while the traditional equity market has become a new pivot for him to leverage Bitcoin's market.
Leveraging indirectly through the U.S. and Japanese stock markets has several practical advantages. First is compliance: both companies disclose their assets and liabilities as publicly listed entities in the U.S. and Japan, making it easier for mainstream financial institutions to accept financing, going long, or hedging around their stocks within existing regulatory frameworks than opening high-leverage positions on high-risk derivatives platforms. Second is the richness of financing and tools: the U.S. and Japanese stock markets have mature financing and margin trading systems, ETFs, options, and structured products, providing a much broader strategic combination space for amplifying bullish positions or hedging downside risks than pure crypto derivatives. Third, the differences in liquidity and participant structure allow these equity assets to attract some institutional funds that would otherwise be unable or unwilling to directly allocate to Bitcoin.
A potentially deeper motivation relates to the current regulatory and pricing environment. In the context of tightening global regulation and some jurisdictions continuously tightening high-leverage crypto derivatives, traditional futures and contracts can easily experience liquidity stratification and risk premium distortion during certain periods, leading to short-term disconnection between derivatives prices and spot trends. When the market fears that derivatives may be subject to unilateral squeezes, with the liquidation mechanism amplifying profits and losses, moving Bitcoin bullish exposure to traditional financial assets becomes not only a hedge but also a form of "bypassing" the existing pricing system. Hayes' choice to focus his main bets on MSTR and Metaplanet largely leverages the compliance shell and mature leverage system of the traditional equity market to construct a bullish battlefield that is not entirely influenced by crypto derivatives sentiment.
MSTR and Metaplanet: Leveraged "Bitcoin-like Stocks"
To understand Hayes' layout, one must first see how the business structures of MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are highly intertwined with Bitcoin. MicroStrategy has gradually transformed from a traditional enterprise software company into a "Bitcoin-like asset management company," significantly allocating BTC to its balance sheet through multiple rounds of debt issuance, convertible bonds, and refinancing. The company's valuation and profit expectations are increasingly interpreted by the market as "amplifiers of Bitcoin holdings." When the price of Bitcoin rises, MSTR's stock price often reacts more vigorously than the spot Bitcoin, with its net asset value, leverage structure, and market expectations overlapping to give it a characteristic of "built-in leverage." Metaplanet plays a similar role in the Japanese market, reinforcing its image of holding and positioning Bitcoin through announcements and market narratives, leading investors to view it as a "Japanese version of Bitcoin exposure."
Compared to directly holding Bitcoin or using futures, these "Bitcoin-like stocks" exhibit significant differences in risk-return characteristics. On one hand, since the stock price carries the triple factors of company operating expectations + Bitcoin market value fluctuations + leverage structure, its volatility is often amplified, with both rises and falls being more pronounced than the underlying asset; on the other hand, the liquidity and regulatory disclosure requirements of the stock market itself allow participants to obtain more transparent asset structures and risk information through financial reports, announcements, and regulatory documents. For aggressive funds, the amplifying effect of stock prices and the availability of multi-layer financial tools are attractive; for risk-sensitive funds, the regulatory framework and information disclosure behind the equity form somewhat compensate for the transparency and legal certainty shortcomings of crypto-native assets.
In a phase where Bitcoin's spot sentiment has not fully turned bullish and derivatives remain cautious, Hayes' early increase in these equity assets that amplify Bitcoin exposure has a strong demonstrative effect. On one hand, he is using "old-school stock market tools" to express a firm bullish outlook on Bitcoin's mid-term trend, providing a more accessible "intermediary vehicle" for cautious funds; on the other hand, this operation itself may be interpreted by the market as a confidence vote for future trends, potentially attracting some traditional investors more familiar with MSTR and Metaplanet to indirectly participate in the game of Bitcoin-related assets. If this funding chain extends further, the rising volume of Bitcoin-like stocks could reinforce the market's recognition of Bitcoin's long bull logic, forming an attempt to flow sentiment back from the equity side to the crypto space.
Under the Shadow of Conflicts of Interest: The New Battlefield of Washington and Wall Street
While Hayes leverages Bitcoin through publicly listed company stocks, the U.S. political sphere remains highly sensitive to financial conflicts of interest surrounding crypto assets. Senator Elizabeth Warren recently publicly stated that the current situation surrounding crypto-related financial exposures "represents an unprecedented scale of financial conflicts of interest or corruption issues." This wording directly points to the fact that when officials, regulatory decision-makers, and large financial institutions have direct or indirect holdings in crypto assets, any changes in policy tightening or loosening may be questioned as "standing up for their own assets."
Once certain stocks in the traditional market become highly intertwined with Bitcoin, the scrutiny pressure faced by policymakers will present multiple layers. On one hand, regulatory agencies need to track not just simple token addresses but extend to indirect crypto exposures across U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and other multi-layer financial products; on the other hand, officials and public sector holdings declarations are no longer limited to whether they directly hold Bitcoin but must answer whether they hold stocks or related fund shares like MSTR and Metaplanet that are highly correlated with BTC. When the equity market itself becomes an "invisible battlefield" for crypto risks and interest distribution, the conflict of interest, information disclosure, and compliance review mechanisms in the traditional regulatory toolbox will be forced to upgrade and expand.
In this context, Hayes' shift to using publicly listed company stocks for leveraged bets inevitably draws him into the larger game surrounding crypto assets and traditional regulatory frameworks. On one end, he seems to be expressing a bullish view using compliant tools under traditional rules, appearing to "align" with mainstream finance; on the other end, as more funds complete indirect layouts through Bitcoin-like stocks, regulators will have to reassess whether existing equity market rules are sufficient to cover this new type of crypto exposure. The tug-of-war between Washington and Wall Street over the boundaries of crypto regulation thus extends to what seems like traditional stock codes.
Divergent Asset Rotation: Bitcoin Charges Ahead, Ethereum and Traditional Assets Go Their Own Ways
In this round of market activity, the internal asset differentiation within crypto is also evident. Bitcoin has broken through $95,000, becoming the vanguard of sentiment, while Ethereum remains more in a range-bound state, yet to provide a similar breakout signal. This misalignment between leading and following assets makes the market increasingly inclined to view Bitcoin as the "risk appetite barometer" of the current cycle, while Ethereum and its ecosystem are seen as a track more aligned with technology and yield logic.
During this period, Bitmine's large-scale staking of Ethereum further reinforces this perception. According to disclosed data, the institution added approximately 94,400 ETH in staking, bringing the total staking scale to about 1,530,784 ETH. Behind these numbers is a more pronounced mentality of "locking and earning" within the Ethereum ecosystem: a large amount of capital tends to view ETH as an asset that generates staking yields and participates in protocol security and governance, rather than merely a speculative chip pursuing short-term price surges. Bitcoin leads the charge in spot trading, while Ethereum consolidates its long-term yield foundation in staking and application layers, with both playing different roles in the same cycle.
Alongside crypto assets, traditional markets such as Shanghai tin futures and the healthcare sector have also shown significant volatility during the same period, indicating a global risk appetite is being redistributed across multiple asset lines. Some funds are switching between commodities and defensive sectors, while others are seeking balance among tech stocks, crypto-related concept stocks, and bond yields. As Bitcoin charts an independent course in this global asset landscape, it attracts or diverts not only the chips of other tokens but also the marginal risk budgets of traditional risk assets. The rhythm of asset rotation is forming a more complex interplay between crypto and traditional markets.
After the Leveraged Bets: The Bull Market Consensus is Still on the Way
Overall, the Bitcoin leverage layout constructed by Arthur Hayes through MSTR and Metaplanet forms a clear tension with the current market structure of "rising spot prices and lukewarm derivatives." On one side is the price breakthrough and the surge in large spot transactions, while on the other side is the cautious pattern of futures and options that are reluctant to fully commit. The path he has chosen is a third route—using traditional equity tools to amplify Bitcoin bullishness, extending the battlefield to the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. This strategy not only bypasses the emotional stagnation of the crypto derivatives market but also attempts to leverage the inherent leverage and compliance attributes of the stock market to find a new amplifier for Bitcoin bulls.
A key point to watch next is whether this traditional equity leverage can attract more institutions and retail investors to indirectly get on board. If Bitcoin-like stocks such as MSTR and Metaplanet experience a trend-driven surge in volume due to capital inflow, they may become a "transitional station" for cautious funds to participate in the Bitcoin market, thereby forcing the futures and options markets to reprice risk and pushing the overall sentiment in derivatives and spot trading from caution to a full bullish trend. Conversely, if these equity assets experience a sharp pullback or regulatory constraints, it could abruptly halt the leverage chain before a unified bull market consensus is formed.
At the intersection of regulatory, macroeconomic, and industry capital dynamics, the future path of Bitcoin and related equity assets remains full of uncertainties. On one hand, the macro interest rate trajectory, U.S. dollar liquidity, and geopolitical risks will continue to influence the overall valuation of risk assets; on the other hand, the regulatory stance on crypto exposures and "crypto-like stocks" will determine how far this equity leverage channel can go. For market participants, understanding the layout logic of early actors like Hayes not only helps in judging the evolution direction of bullish sentiment but also serves as a reminder to be cautious of the risk inflection points hidden beneath the dual volatility of equities and cryptocurrency prices while amplifying returns. The consensus for a bull market may not yet be fully formed, but the next round of leverage games surrounding Bitcoin has quietly begun across multiple markets.
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