The cryptocurrency market continues its oscillating adjustment rhythm. Bitcoin and Ethereum first experienced a pullback for repair during yesterday's trading session, and after the release of the U.S. December ADP employment data in the evening, instead of rebounding, they further dipped, only easing the downward trend after hitting a low in the early morning. The current market focus is on whether the short-term rebound can be sustained and whether the evening's initial jobless claims data will further disturb the market.

On the macro level, the U.S. December ADP employment data released last night became a key trigger for market fluctuations. The data showed that the number of jobs in the private sector increased by only 41,000, below the market expectation of 50,000. Although it successfully reversed the job losses in November, indicating a mild recovery in the labor market, the overall momentum remains sluggish. In detail, job growth is mainly concentrated in the service industries such as education, healthcare, and leisure, while sectors like manufacturing and professional business services are still experiencing job losses. Wage growth also remains moderate, further signaling a release of inflationary pressure. Generally, such dovish data should boost risk asset sentiment, but the crypto market did not respond positively. After a brief consolidation, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell again—the core reason being that the market had already priced in some rate cut expectations, and the data did not meet the threshold for a more accommodative outlook, triggering an exit of earlier profit-taking positions. Coupled with the pullback pressure after the early-week rebound hit resistance at the early December high, this ultimately led to a weakening market.

In terms of specific market performance, the dual-coin trend showed a pattern of "falling first and then stabilizing." After the data release last night, Bitcoin experienced a downward trend, dipping to around 90,700 in the early morning, but the decline significantly eased afterward, showing signs of halting the drop. Ethereum quickly rebounded after dipping to around 3,130, with the pullback being noticeably weaker than Bitcoin, reflecting relatively solid support below. However, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with the cryptocurrency fear and greed index still in the "extreme fear" range, leading to insufficient willingness among investors to chase prices, which also results in weak rebound momentum.

From a technical analysis perspective, both coins exhibit characteristics of "pullback touching support + short-term rebound signals," but the overall bearish pattern has not completely reversed. For Bitcoin, the 4-hour K-line found support after touching the lower Bollinger band around 90,000, a position that typically has strong support in non-extremely weak market conditions. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone (usually below 20 indicates oversold, meaning short-term downward momentum is nearing exhaustion, with the possibility of a rebound), and the MACD indicator is also showing a contraction and easing trend, indicating that bearish selling pressure is weakening.

However, it is important to note that the current 4-hour level is still in a bearish dominant pattern, but the hourly RSI indicator is turning upward from the oversold zone, releasing a signal for a short-term rebound. Based on this, the short-term resistance to watch above today is the 92,500 and 93,000 areas, as these two positions are important consolidation platforms during the previous pullback process and will have some selling pressure. The support below focuses on the 90,000 mark, which is the core watershed of this pullback. If it can hold, the short-term rebound pattern is expected to continue, but if selling pressure persists and this area is lost, it may further dip to the 89,000 area seeking support.

Ethereum's technical shape is similar to Bitcoin's, but the pullback is milder, which may be related to the continuous inflow of institutional funds into Ethereum spot ETFs and the support from industrial capital increases. Technically, Ethereum's price also eased after pulling back to the 4-hour lower Bollinger band. Although short-term bearish momentum still exists, the hourly level has begun to rebound and repair. The short-term resistance to watch today is at the 3,200 and 3,250 positions, with the 3,200 mark being a key point of contention recently. A breakthrough here would further open up rebound space; the support below focuses on the 3,100-3,070 area, while the 3,000 mark serves as an important psychological defense line that must be solidified. If lost, it may trigger a larger pullback.

In summary, the current market is in a phase of correcting previous profit-taking positions. Although both coins released short-term rebound signals after hitting lows in the early morning, the overall rebound momentum still needs to be observed in conjunction with volume. The day is likely to be dominated by a fluctuating correction trend, and investors should focus on the defensive effectiveness of support levels to avoid blindly chasing prices or panic selling. The initial jobless claims data to be released in the evening will become a new market variable. As an important supplementary indicator reflecting the labor market situation, its performance will further influence the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace, thereby disturbing cryptocurrency trends, which needs close attention.

This article is exclusively contributed by Jane Crypto (WeChat public account: Jane Crypto) and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only; risks are borne by the reader. Trade with reasonable position control and avoid heavy or full positions. Developing good investment habits is essential for a positive cycle!

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