Article content sourced from Uweb live sharing class
Content organized by Peter-Techub News
On the evening of January 6, 2026, the 219th Uweb live class arrived as scheduled, focusing on industry pain points—“2025 Review + 2026 Outlook: The Password Under the Changing Crypto Cycle.” The host, Dr. Yu Jianing, president of Uweb, engaged in an in-depth dialogue with guest Asen (a former leading buy-side researcher and current buy-side investment manager with 8 years of experience in the crypto space). They discussed the unique characteristics of the 2025 crypto market, the rise and fall of the AI Agent + Crypto sector, and the sub-sectors and macro key events worth paying attention to in 2026. The external sharing was rich in insights, while the internal session focused on the growth logic of the Solana ecosystem and Ethereum price target assessments, providing students with more private practical insights.
Opening: Distinct Characteristics of the 2025 Crypto Cycle—Lack of Innovation and Liquidity Tightening
In 2025, the most significant feeling for investors in the entire crypto market was the absence of a “sh*tcoin season.” Compared to the massive influx of external funds during the application layer explosion in 2021 (DeFi, NFT, GameFi), this cycle showed a clear lack of innovation, failing to attract incremental funds from Web2, which is the fundamental reason for the “low inflow” in the liquidity pool.
At the same time, the pace of token issuance accelerated significantly, with leading exchanges (such as Binance, OKX, Coinbase) listing far more tokens than in the previous cycle. The proliferation of high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and low circulation VC tokens, along with layers of profit extraction by project teams, VCs, and exchanges, further drained market liquidity. More critically, ETF funds entered the market on a large scale but almost exclusively remained in BTC and ETH, the two “isolated assets,” without spilling over into altcoins. Native crypto players buy BTC/ETH and continue to chase high-risk altcoins, while institutional ETF funds “only recognize BTC and ETH,” leading to a severe segmentation of the entire altcoin pool.
Asen summarized: This cycle is a period of institutional growing pains; the era of wild growth has ended. In the future, the higher the degree of specialization, the lower the excess returns that can be obtained. Making money in 2025 is essentially the result of a triple squeeze of “low inflow, high extraction, and many tokens.”
AI Agent + Crypto: A Second Spring of Rapid Rise and Fall?
At the beginning of 2025, the AI Agent + Crypto sector was widely optimistic, and Uweb even released a report and participated in investments. However, after a rapid rise and fall, the sector quickly cooled down, and the performance of leading projects fell far short of expectations.
Asen believes that the direction itself is not the problem; the issue lies with specific projects. AI remains the biggest trend for the next decade, and as a sub-sector, AI Agent + Crypto will continue to be repeatedly hyped along with the broader trend. However, the kind of “universal rise across the board, with everyone doubling” seen in 2025 is unlikely to be replicated. In the future, two scenarios are more likely to occur: one is that new AI concepts drive new projects to explode from 0 to 1; the other is that old leading projects achieve a second explosion by horizontally extending their narratives (binding to new AI hotspots). The key is whether project teams can seize new trends and cooperate with market makers for hype.
He cautioned: Retail investors need to be highly vigilant about the risk of being harvested immediately after the launch of high-valuation new tokens. The AI sector still requires close attention, but it should be combined with the pre-existing hype patterns of AI concepts in the stock market for early positioning.
Sub-sectors and Core Logic Worth Watching in 2026
Asen provided four relatively certain sector directions for 2026:
Prediction Markets
Essentially binary options, providing risk hedging tools that traditional finance struggles to cover. With major sporting events like the World Cup and an election year in 2026, there will be ample traffic entry points, making it worthy of primary market attention (secondary tokens are currently limited).
DeFi Sub-sectors: Interest Rate Derivatives and Applications with Cash Flow Generation
New accounting regulations in the U.S., the Lummis-Gillibrand bill, and the Clarity Act will drive institutional allocation to stable yield DeFi products (like Pendle's PT/YT). At the same time, applications with real cash flow (like Uniswap) are more likely to gain institutional recognition, with valuation models comparable to the stock market.
RWA and On-chain Real Estate like Propy
A long-term slow-burning trend driven by both policy and demand, with the speed of implementation in 2026 potentially exceeding expectations.
Sports Event Concepts (Fan Tokens)
The World Cup will drive related tokens to be hyped six months to a year in advance, with significant price increases historically observed during major events, making it highly certain.
Additionally, although the Memecoin sector faced a downturn after celebrity tokens were drained and fairness was called into question, Asen believes it should not be directly sentenced to death. Speculative demand is human nature, and even mature markets have their “meme stocks.” In 2026, Memecoins may undergo self-purification, with funds returning from celebrity-driven narratives to community-driven and narrative-driven ones. Solana remains the most native soil (high TPS, low fees, mature Pump.fun, cultural support), while chains like BSC and Base play a supplementary and competitive role.
Macro Key Events: Can the Bull Market Continue?
Several macro events in 2026 are worth paying close attention to:
U.S. Midterm Elections: Trump may concentrate on releasing crypto-friendly policies in the second half of the year, increasing the probability of a market rally.
Federal Reserve Leadership Change (Powell's term ends in May): If Trump appoints a dovish chair, a faster pace of interest rate cuts will benefit the market but may raise questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
MicroStrategy may be removed from the Nasdaq index: Short-term negative impacts may have already been priced in.
Risk of AI Bubble Burst: If IPOs of companies like OpenAI and xAI withdraw liquidity from the U.S. stock market, it may transmit to the crypto market.
Geopolitical Conflicts: If recent U.S. military actions (such as in the Middle East) escalate, it could lead to short-term or even long-term volatility.
Internal Session Insights: Solana Ecosystem Growth Logic and ETH Price Target Assessment
The internal session focused more on practical on-chain analysis. Asen emphasized that, apart from BTC, all altcoins ultimately need to anchor to BTC's movements, and on-chain indicators (such as URPD, CVD, contract liquidation maps, technical indicators) are only secondary references. In extreme market conditions, altcoin support/resistance levels can easily be broken by BTC.
The recent rebound of Solana is mainly benefited from its low market cap and the Memecoin craze (typified by 114514), and above $110, it has partially followed Memecoin logic. ETH, on the other hand, requires additional attention to on-chain lending liquidation risks, as the current large liquidation price is relatively low, posing no short-term concerns. There may be significant pressure around the $3400 mark for ETH.
Asen believes that the opportunities for ETH in 2026 may be greater than those for Solana, while other ecosystems (like Base) need to observe new trends. The overall altcoin market has entered an era driven by “fundamental factors,” where the traditional rebound logic has failed, and future research should focus on tracking the movements of major players and market makers.
Media Summary: Rationality and Long-termism in a Structured Bull Market
2025 was a year of growing pains for the institutionalization of the crypto market, with a lack of innovation and liquidity fragmentation leading to the absence of a sh*tcoin season, making it exceptionally difficult for retail investors to make money. In 2026, the resonance of multiple favorable factors such as expectations of macro policy easing, genuine institutional entry, major event traffic, and the implementation of RWA increases the probability of a continued bull market, but the structural characteristics will be more pronounced—excess returns will be concentrated in sectors with clear cash flows, favorable policies, and event-driven dynamics, while Memecoins and AI Agents still hold phase-specific opportunities.
President Yu Jianing repeatedly emphasized: The industry has shifted from wild growth to specialization, and maintaining rationality, continuous learning, and valuing on-chain data and AI tools are key to seizing opportunities in changing circumstances. Uweb will continue to help students establish a long-term mindset through weekly live broadcasts, weekly reports, CDA certification, and offline events, enabling them to navigate through cycles.
In 2026, the crypto world will not lack opportunities; what is lacking is just well-prepared eyes.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
