The cryptocurrency market experienced a small turn yesterday, with Bitcoin failing to break through the key resistance level of 95,000. Following this, Ethereum also played out a "rise and fall" scenario, breaking the previous continuous upward trend. Now everyone is pondering: is this the official start of a correction? From the market and macro news perspective, a short-term correction is highly likely to occur, but there is quick buying support at lower levels, indicating that the correction may not be too severe. The next steps will mainly depend on tonight's ADP employment report and the speeches from Federal Reserve executives.

This market shift is primarily due to changes in macro policy expectations. Last night, Federal Reserve official Milan mentioned that there might be a 100 basis point rate cut in 2026, which is a more aggressive easing signal than the market expected, causing the market to react. After the news broke, institutions briefly entered the market to push Bitcoin up, but then began to sell off in large quantities to cash out, clearly taking advantage of the positive news to offload, which directly led to significant price fluctuations. This "rise followed by a drop" situation also indicates that many bulls, having seen such a rise, are looking to secure profits.

Looking specifically at the market, Bitcoin's volatility is particularly high. During the day yesterday, it initially dipped slightly to around 93,200, then surged again in the evening due to macro positive news, but unfortunately hit the resistance level at 95,000 and got stuck, immediately followed by a large sell-off that pushed the price down, reaching a low of around 91,300 in the early morning. Fortunately, there was buying support at lower levels, and the price quickly rebounded, reaching about 93,800 in the morning, nearly recovering the losses from the early morning drop. However, the good times were short-lived, and it has now fallen below the key level of 93,000, indicating that the short-term bullish momentum is starting to wane. It’s important to note that there were many trapped positions at the 95,000 level previously, and the failure to break through confirms that selling pressure is indeed heavy here.

From a technical perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have signaled a correction. For Bitcoin, the daily chart had been showing consecutive bullish candles, but yesterday it recorded its first bearish candle, forming a pattern of "failing to break 95,000 and then dropping"; the RSI indicator, which had been in the overbought zone, is now starting to turn down, indicating insufficient bullish strength; the MACD volume on the four-hour chart is also shrinking, and the volume-price relationship is not favorable, further suggesting a potential short-term correction. However, the quick rebound after dropping to 91,300 also indicates that there are many willing buyers at lower levels, so the correction is likely to be moderate. Today, the focus will be on whether the support level can hold; in the short term, we are looking at the 91,500-90,800 range. If it cannot hold, we need to be cautious about a drop to the 90,000 level—this position is crucial for the strength of this market trend, and whether it can hold will directly impact the short-term trend; the upper resistance remains at 95,000, and breaking through this level in the short term will require sustained capital inflow, which is not easy.

Ethereum's movement is similar to Bitcoin's, also experiencing a "rise and fall" volatile market, with slightly smaller fluctuations than Bitcoin. The technical indicators also suggest a correction; the daily chart appears to be under pressure, and the volume on the four-hour chart is gradually decreasing, indicating that a short-term correction is also needed. Today, the short-term support is seen in the 3,180-3,150 range, which was previously an important consolidation platform and has decent support; the upper resistance is at the 3,300 level. If market sentiment improves and it can stabilize here, there may be a chance to push up to 3,350-3,400, but currently, everyone feels a correction is imminent, making a rebound challenging.

In summary, the market has shifted from a previous one-sided rise to a phase of consolidation and adjustment, with a short-term correction being a high-probability event. Today, it is expected to focus on consolidation, with everyone's attention on tonight's ADP employment report and the speeches from Federal Reserve executives. The ADP data is a "leading indicator" for non-farm data, and its performance will directly affect perceptions of the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace; the latest statements from Federal Reserve executives may also lead to increased market volatility. It is recommended that everyone take a wait-and-see approach, avoiding blind chasing of highs and lows, and only act when the correction is in place or the trend becomes clear; of course, those who want to trade with light positions can also manage the rhythm within the range, paying attention to risk control.

This article is exclusively published by (public account: Jane Crypto) and is for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human psychology and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, refine ourselves, and strive for long-term strength.

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