Master Discusses Hot Topics:
Let's talk about the US stock market from last night. The S&P hit a new high again. But the result is that Bitcoin couldn't even hold 94.5K, luckily my long positions were closed. The group of short-term holders who got in between 83.3K and 87K already have a 10% profit on paper. Do you expect them to lift you up without selling? Dream on.
Right now, there are no new solid positive factors, so it's completely normal for the price to be suppressed. As long as it doesn't break 90K, I actually think it's healthy to oscillate back to the range of 90.500 to 95K. A change in hands of chips is supposed to happen; not changing hands is the real hidden danger.
MSTR continues to remain in MSCI, this news isn't explosive, but at least it's not bad news. It won't make the market peak, but it also won't stab the emotions. In this environment, the biggest fear isn't the lack of good news, but a sudden systemic negative event.
The real risk this month isn't in the crypto circle, but with those old-timers in Washington. If the subsidy game for the Affordable Care Act fails, it will directly involve comprehensive budget negotiations, and if that can't be resolved, the old American government shutdown script will replay.
If it really drags on to the end of January for a shutdown, the market will definitely take a big hit. If it's resolved smoothly, then it will be calm, and at least in the short term, we won't have to worry about black swans. As for not lowering interest rates in January, that has already been digested by the market; I won't dwell on what everyone already knows.
What’s really worth watching is when Trump announces the new chairman, and the Fed's RMP bond purchase expansion is a hidden line. Liquidity doesn't show immediate effects; it seeps in slowly, but once it starts, the impact on risk assets is tangible.
The core issue for 2026 is the US monetary policy; everything else is just noise. Whether it's Venezuela or geopolitical issues, ultimately, they all serve to suppress inflation; don't take the narrative too mystically.
Some say the S&P hitting new highs and Bitcoin correcting means Bitcoin only falls and doesn't rise. I can't even be bothered to refute that. If there really were no correlation, would Venezuela's mess have any connection to crypto?
As a result, on Monday, the spot ETF was directly bought out, what else can you call that if not correlation? When the US stocks rise, Bitcoin didn't keep up, largely because the funds that were previously trapped took the opportunity to escape during the rebound; blaming Bitcoin is not acceptable.
This wave of increase was driven by events; Bitcoin started reacting since the weekend, and Monday's increase was clearly ahead of the US stocks. Non-crypto native positive events, after rising, it's completely normal to correct. 90K has been flat for half a month, and with no significant improvement in liquidity, being able to hold steady is not bad in itself.
Back to the market, the wave at 94.5K was a standard liquidity grab, and those chasing longs have basically been harvested. As long as the range is still between 90K and 94.5K, I don't think the rebound has ended.
The short-term moving average is pulling back, MACD is climbing the zero axis, and the 5-day line is on its way to a golden cross. This week and next week, I still lean towards bullish in the short term, but the premise is to buy on dips, not to charge in blindly.
This correction is the first since the rebound on January 1, completely within expectations. It fell after hovering above 94K for a while, which actually indicates that the market is not weak. On the downside, I would prefer to see a fill of the CME gap, cleaning up the chips around 90K before pushing up to 97 to 98K.
Currently, the selling pressure above 94K is extremely heavy, and I haven't reached my ideal short position yet. The pullback from 92 to 90K basically hit the mark in the early morning, but the 4-hour candlestick has already started to show signs of enticing longs.
If in the next two days it still can't break 95K, or if it spikes to 95K and is immediately smashed down, this round of increase will be considered phase-ending. The only condition is to strongly stand above 95K; otherwise, it's all nonsense. From the 1st to now, it's been 7 days, and the turning point is in these few days.
Ethereum is still relatively strong, breaking 3200 cleanly, with the next level being 3447. However, the smaller time frames are already showing clear signs of fatigue, and a correction is only a matter of time. High-level pullbacks will be quite annoying, with support at 3115/2915/2843 and resistance around 3400.
Master Looks at Trends:
Currently, Bitcoin is in a phase of amplified volatility, still operating within a range, and the short-term bullish structure remains. Due to the large bullish and bearish candlesticks that appeared yesterday, the closing range of 92K is currently the most important support level.
In the short term, pay attention to the 20-day moving average and the support at 92.6K. If the price can regain and effectively break above the closing high of the large bullish and bearish candlesticks at 93.7K, the probability of continuing to move upward will increase.
Regarding the direction of the current short-term market, it essentially comes down to whether it will first drop to 92K or rise to 93.7K. Whichever comes first, the short-term direction will follow that way.
The RSI is at 56 and has started to turn down. There is a possibility of continued short-term correction, with the first support at 92.6K being a short-term support that has a high probability of being broken.
To maintain the rebound in the short term, it is essential to hold the 20-day moving average. If the second support at 92K is broken again, the price may directly open up downward space to seek the lower medium to long-term moving averages.
The first resistance at 93.7K is a key closing pressure level; if effectively broken, the price will likely test above 94K. However, it is important to note that the 95 to 96K range is a psychological pressure zone, and if there is no accompanying volume, the probability of a pullback after rising will increase.
1.7 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: 91300-92000 range, Target: 92600-93700
Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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