On March 18, 2025, at 8 AM UTC+8, Bitcoin experienced a strong surge during trading, breaking through the $100,000 mark and setting a new historical high, while also driving mainstream assets like Ethereum and SOL to strengthen collectively. Accompanying the price rise, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a significant increase in volume, with futures and options leverage rising in tandem, and on-chain activity and miner behavior also showed phase changes. The market began to re-discuss the upward space and rhythm of the new cycle post-halving, with this round of peak resembling the first major offensive after macro liquidity and institutional channels were fully opened, rather than a pulse market driven by a single piece of news.
ETF and On-Chain Data Resonance Amplifying the Market
● Spot ETF volume breakthrough: Several spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw a "double rise" in trading volume and net inflows in mid-March, with daily net inflows returning to the tens of billions of dollars level, significantly larger than the average daily level in late February. The trading volume of leading products approached the high point seen at the beginning of January, indicating that institutions and high-net-worth funds did not significantly reduce their positions at high levels, but rather accelerated their accumulation or increased their positions with the price breakthrough.
● Position size sets new records: From the perspective of holdings, the total Bitcoin holdings of several ETFs reached a new historical high, approaching or even surpassing the previously regarded "phase top" position threshold. Combined with net subscription data, it can be seen that some long-term funds are still rhythmically buying on a daily and weekly basis, forming a stable passive inflow base that provides continuous spot demand support for this round of market activity.
● On-chain activity heats up: On-chain data shows that in the past week, Bitcoin's daily average on-chain transaction count and active address count have significantly increased compared to the February average, with a higher proportion of large UTXOs in the transfer amounts, indicating that not only retail investors are participating, but also substantial chips are flowing again on-chain, suspected to be institutions or large OTC accounts adjusting their positions.
● Differentiation between long-term and short-term holders: The supply of long-term holders remains high, with only slight signs of reduction, while the realized price of short-term holders has rapidly increased, indicating that funds entering recently are generally in a profitable state. This structure matches the typical characteristics of a bull market: old chips are reluctant to sell easily, and new funds chase prices at high levels, pushing up the price center.
● Marginal easing of miner behavior: Before Bitcoin's price broke through $100,000, there was a noticeable release of selling pressure from miners, with miner outflows exceeding the annual average at one point, but during this round of breakthroughs, the intensity of miner selling slightly decreased, with most miners choosing to wait and see or lock in small profits. This indicates a temporary alleviation of sustained selling pressure from the supply side, providing space for price movement.
Tension Between Derivatives and Spot Structure
● Futures premium significantly widened: In the contract market, the annualized basis of three-month Bitcoin futures has risen back to double digits, significantly widening compared to last month, reflecting that bulls are willing to pay a higher forward premium to seek greater upward space. This structure often appears when funds are optimistic about the medium to short-term market but lack spot chips.
● Leverage bulls dominate: From the composition of futures positions, the leverage usage rate of long positions is significantly higher than that of short positions, with the margin usage rate and liquidation threshold announced by exchanges both rising, indicating that leveraged funds are continuously increasing their positions during the price rise, while shorts are more playing the role of hedgers and liquidity providers, without forming concentrated, aggressive shorting power.
● Options skew reflects bullish sentiment: In the options market, the implied volatility of short-term OTM call options is significantly higher than that of put options at the same strike, with the skew turning positive and the trading volume of high strike prices increasing, indicating that funds are more willing to bet on distant gains at limited costs, forming a typical bull market options structure.
● Liquidation chain remains controllable: Despite the rise in leverage levels, the scale of forced liquidations in the past few trading days has not reached the peaks seen during previous rounds of "waterfall-like surges." This means that the current market activity is more about organized and rhythmic pushing by funds, rather than completely relying on passive short liquidations to create a short squeeze, with the overall leverage chain temporarily remaining within a controllable range.
● Monitoring the price difference between spot and derivatives: Currently, contract prices on multiple exchanges have a certain degree of premium over spot prices, attracting arbitrage funds to balance the market through cash arbitrage. Once the basis rises too high, arbitrage positions will increase selling pressure on the spot market and buy futures, automatically braking the overheated upward movement, which is also a micro-structural signal that needs to be continuously tracked during this round of upward movement.
Dislocation of Macro and Crypto Cycles
The timing of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 coincides with multiple dislocations of macro liquidity, regulatory normalization, and internal crypto cycles. On the macro level, the end of the last interest rate hike cycle opened up space for overall valuation expansion of risk assets, with funds seeking new high-beta allocation targets between stocks and bonds, while Bitcoin, after becoming a compliant ETF target, was truly incorporated into the traditional asset allocation framework for the first time. Against this backdrop, even if inflation and interest rate expectations fluctuate, the entry rhythm of traditional funds is mainly constrained by product channels and internal compliance processes, rather than short-term fluctuations in single macro data.
From the perspective of the internal crypto cycle, the supply contraction effect after the last halving, combined with the new demand brought by ETFs, means that the driving force of this bull market is no longer limited to on-chain native funds. The halving cycle itself, through continuous compression on the supply side, has raised the marginal holding cost, while ETFs have transmitted this cost structure to a broader view of institutional investors. The overlap of these two logics has transformed Bitcoin from a marginal speculative target in traditional asset portfolios to an alternative asset that can be quantified and risk-controlled. This redefinition of its role is the deeper reason why prices can continue to break historical ceilings under regulatory frameworks.
At the same time, the structural layering within the crypto industry has become increasingly evident. Bitcoin, as "the simplest story," has higher explainability and acceptability amid the wave of compliance, while Ethereum and other public chains are more categorized as technology or application platforms, requiring more complex narratives to complete their value logic. This leads to funds tending to first concentrate bets on Bitcoin in terms of allocation priority, and then gradually spread to higher-risk assets based on market evolution and regulatory attitudes. This top-down diffusion path contrasts sharply with the previous bottom-up model where altcoins drove sentiment and then fed back into mainstream assets, indicating that the rhythm and structure of this cycle are experiencing a certain degree of dislocation overlap with traditional macro cycles.
The Tug-of-War Between Bullish Euphoria and High-Level Hedging
There are significant divergences in the market regarding the interpretation of Bitcoin's path after crossing the $100,000 mark. On one hand, the bullish camp emphasizes the structural strength of continuous net inflows into ETFs and long-term fund allocations, believing that as long as compliant product channels continue to expand in the U.S. and other major markets, newly entering institutional funds will form a stable buying base, and price adjustments are more likely to be technical fluctuations within the rising channel. This perspective typically views the supply contraction post-halving, the easing of marginal selling pressure from miners, and the rigidity of supply from long-term holders as the "hard logic" of the bull market, asserting that even if the recent price increase is considerable, it is still in the mid-early stage from the overall cycle perspective.
On the other hand, more cautious funds are beginning to pay attention to the changes in risk-reward ratios at high levels. As prices reach new highs, the floating profits of short-term holders accumulate rapidly, and once market sentiment is disturbed by macro events, regulatory statements, or large institutional sell-offs, profit-taking and leveraged positions may resonate and amplify selling pressure, increasing the magnitude of corrections. In particular, signals from derivatives such as significantly widened futures basis and booming call option trading are also interpreted by some participants as warnings of overheated sentiment. For these funds, rather than chasing remaining gains at high levels, it is better to reduce spot positions, increase protective put options, or build hedging positions to lock in already realized profits, shifting the position structure from offensive to defensive.
This divergence between bulls and bears is specifically reflected in the market, where trading volume increases during price rises but volatility does not spiral out of control, with more high-level trading opportunities, while rapid pullbacks after significant one-sided surges are relatively limited, indicating that there is no consensus view in the market. The interleaved behaviors of left-side bottom fishers and right-side hedgers maintain a fragile balance between heat and rationality, also laying the groundwork for subsequent directional choices in the market.
The Game of Key Price Levels and Time Windows
Looking ahead to the next few trading weeks, the market's focus will revolve around the gains and losses of key price levels and macro, policy, and funding events within the time window. In the short term, whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $100,000 and establish a new price center will directly affect the confidence of leveraged funds in their positions. If prices consolidate at high levels, and the trading structure remains healthy, with ETFs continuing their net inflow rhythm, then bulls have the opportunity to digest profit-taking and potential selling pressure during fluctuations, setting the stage for the next upward movement. Conversely, if there is a significant drop below key support areas, combined with a decline in futures basis and a rapid contraction in implied volatility of options, it may trigger a top-down deleveraging process, causing prices to retreat to previous breakout ranges to seek new balance.
From a longer time dimension, the trend path post-halving still needs to observe the comprehensive effects of macro interest rate trajectories, the implementation of regulatory policies in major economies, and the globalization process of compliant products. If in the coming months, more regions replicate the U.S. spot ETF model, and the proportion of institutional allocations steadily increases, then Bitcoin is expected to complete "asset repricing" within a higher price range, diverting some traditional safe-haven funds from assets like gold. Conversely, if the macro environment tightens again or regulatory expectations change unfavorably, the market may experience a longer period of high-level consolidation or even wide fluctuations, waiting for new liquidity and narrative-driven factors to emerge. Regardless, the $100,000 mark is both a symbolic milestone and the starting point for a reshuffling of bullish and bearish forces, with the subsequent market performance more dependent on the real evolution of fundamentals and funding rather than a single price label itself.
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