Master Talks Hot Topics:

The weekend news has been revolving around Venezuela, seemingly igniting the weekend market as well. Many are also watching the opening of U.S. stock futures and spot markets for excitement, as tonight's opening in Europe and the U.S. is the real indicator of value.

Currently, the news sounds quite cunningly optimistic. If Venezuela's oil, gold, and rare earths are truly mined alongside the Americans, it would be a strong medicine for the U.S. economy, providing some relief from inflation.

In recent years, tech giants have been most afraid of the rare earth supply chain being choked by Asia. If the Americans manage to bite into this juicy piece, the risks for high-tech manufacturing could be halved. Those on Wall Street will surely give Nasdaq a higher price-to-earnings ratio, and tech stocks have always been correlated with Bitcoin.

Back to the market, cherish this rebound before the Federal Reserve's meeting on January 27, as the probability of a rate cut is only 16.1%. If a pause is hit on rate cuts, the market will definitely turn downward.

The key point is that the oversold rebound after Bitcoin dropped to 80.6K on November 21 has yet to reach the 0.618 golden ratio. I hope it can surge up this month. This morning, I observed the market and the valuescan fund accumulation; the market is as solid as iron.

Recently, the long-short ratio has been decreasing; either the bears are increasing their positions, or the bulls are taking profits. This is definitely a situation the main players do not want to see. Many are curious why the main players at the bottom have not been detected, and why this surge is so fierce?

I see two possibilities: one is that they are pulling up while accumulating, with costs absurdly high, which is rare. The second is that they are directly targeting the short positions above, harvesting those path-dependent bears.

This market really resembles 2021, with meme stocks going wild collectively, and the overall market rising. It seems everyone is pulling the market up in anticipation of 2026, with a joyful atmosphere in the air.

But what about substantial benefits? Even the big players are not calling out trades anymore. Is this just a technical rebound after a long decline, or a true V-shaped reversal? Who dares to guarantee it? During the holiday, BlackRock couldn't offload, and a real bull market depends on stopping the outflow and turning into continuous net inflows.

If we only see this as a rebound, Bitcoin might temporarily hold above 95K before falling back. Whether the bulls survive depends on the pullback position. Last year, from January to March, it seemed fine, but when the market collapsed, everyone was trapped and crying for help.

So those who need to cut losses should do so quickly, and those who need to adjust their stop losses should adjust. Although the bullish trend looks intact, who knows if BlackRock will secretly offload again at the rebound? Once it pulls back, we need to watch the range of 91.9K to 92.1K.

The weekly rise from 15.4K to 126.2K has already ended, and the peak of 126.2K is now purely a rebound in a downtrend. Long-term, I still see Bitcoin in the 70K range.

Weekly support is at 74.6K to 86K, and resistance is at 100K to 107K. The daily breakout at 89.5K is currently facing critical pressure at 94K; if it can't break through, it will oscillate back below 90K.

Ethereum's short-term support is at 3040, 2925, 2749, with resistance at 3400. As long as it holds above 3170 without effectively breaking down, 3400 is basically secure; oscillation doesn't matter, just maintain the right-side trend.

Master's Trend Analysis:

After Bitcoin's price rebounded to 93K, it is currently facing resistance at this level. Following a large bullish candle, the price is oscillating at a high level while continuously raising the lows, indicating an increasing probability of further upward movement.

As long as it does not fall below 91.5K, which is the starting point of this large bullish candle, the overall bullish outlook can still be maintained. If there is a subsequent rise followed by an immediate full retracement, it indicates a weak market, and a shift to bearish expectations is necessary.

The RSI is at 77, in the overbought zone. If during a pullback the RSI can hold above 70, it indicates strong overbought conditions, and the rebound view can still be maintained.

If the pullback breaks the first support at 91.5K, it means the previous gains are being retraced, and the risk of decline significantly increases; this level is a key defensive line. In the short term, attention can be paid to the 20-day moving average; if the price and the moving average's divergence narrows and maintains an upward trend, it will be more favorable for subsequent rises.

On the upside, we should watch if 93K can hold. Currently, it is in the overbought zone, and the probability of a pullback is high. A more reasonable movement would be to pull back and then test 93K again. To go further, a healthy pullback is necessary. If it is not a pullback but a decline, it is likely to re-enter a range-bound oscillation.

1.5 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in the range of 90300-90800, Target: 91500-92000

Short Entry Reference: Sell in the range of 93200-93800, Target: 92000-91500

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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