Pantera Capital published its December Blockchain Letter framing 2025 as the year of structural progress for crypto. Despite muted price action, the firm argues that regulatory clarity, institutional access, and infrastructure advances reshaped the industry’s long-term trajectory more than any prior market cycle in ways markets failed to immediately price.
Pantera’s central point is that price performance obscured the magnitude of change. Entering 2025, expectations were elevated around a pro- crypto U.S. administration, regulatory turnover and supportive macro conditions. When bitcoin’s gains failed to match that optimism, the year was widely viewed as underwhelming. Pantera disagrees. As Erik Lowe, Pantera’s head of content, wrote:
While prices may have fallen short of expectations, this year delivered more structural progress than any in crypto’s history.
A pro- crypto U.S. administration, Gary Gensler’s resignation, and the appointment of SEC Chair Paul Atkins marked a sharp policy reversal. The rescission of SAB 121, dismissal of major SEC lawsuits, and the formation of a White House AI and Crypto Working Group reduced systemic regulatory risk. Stablecoin legislation became law, market-structure bills advanced in Congress, and the U.S. re-emerged as a viable onshore hub for crypto issuance and innovation.
Read more: Pantera Launches First Digital Asset Treasury Fund
Pantera also emphasized how distribution and institutional validation accelerated adoption. Coinbase joined the S&P 500, becoming the first crypto-native company included in the index. Vanguard reversed its long-standing ban on crypto ETFs, opening access for 50 million clients and $11 trillion in assets. Robinhood launched tokenized stocks, multiple crypto ETFs expanded, and nine blockchain companies went public. Lowe wrote:
For the broader ecosystem, we believe this move further validates digital assets as an investable category alongside equities, fixed income, commodities, and alternatives. This is an important step toward integrating crypto into the core of global capital markets.
Onchain metrics reinforced the shift, with real-world assets growing 235% and stablecoin supply increasing by $100 billion.
Looking forward, Pantera’s outlook emphasizes durability over near-term hype. Regulatory clarity is now a structural tailwind, reducing risk premiums embedded in valuations. Tokenization and real-world assets remain a multi-decade opportunity, even if growth unfolds unevenly. Bitcoin-Fi participation is expected to continue expanding beyond 1% of supply, driven by staking, lending, and institutional integrations. Bitcoin-Fi (also known as BTCFi or Bitcoin DeFi) is the ecosystem of decentralized financial applications and protocols built on or around the Bitcoin blockchain.
Pantera further noted that fintech platforms are likely to dominate crypto gateways, leveraging scale, compliance, and existing user bases. ZK-TLS and web proofs are emerging as core infrastructure, enabling trustless use of off-chain data. The company is more cautious on NFTs and restaking, which lagged expectations in 2025, but views both as evolving categories rather than failed experiments. Summarizing the firm’s conviction, Lowe wrote:
From that perspective, we believe there hasn’t been a more important year for the industry than 2025. This is the year we began laying the deep caissons to support durable, long-term growth.
- Why does Pantera Capital say 2025 mattered for crypto despite weak prices?
Pantera argues that regulatory clarity, institutional access, and infrastructure progress outweighed short-term price action. - What regulatory changes did Pantera highlight in its 2025 outlook?
The firm cited SAB 121 rescission, dropped SEC lawsuits, stablecoin legislation, and clearer asset classification. - How did institutional adoption accelerate in 2025, according to Pantera?
Coinbase joined the S&P 500, Vanguard approved crypto ETFs, and multiple blockchain firms went public. - Which crypto sectors does Pantera see as long-term growth drivers?
Pantera points to tokenization, real-world assets, Bitcoin-Fi, fintech platforms, and ZK-TLS infrastructure.
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