On October 29, I wrote an article titled "Shanghai Composite Index Surpasses 4000 Points" as a response to one of my earlier expectations for the A-shares:

"I hope the Shanghai Composite Index can reach 4000 points by the end of December 2025."

And the other expectation is:

"It would be best if it could surpass 6000 points."

By the time I wrote this article, it was already December 31, 2025, and unfortunately, the second expectation did not come true.

Based on my previous expectations, the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points is not something to be proud of; it can only be considered a not-so-bad situation.

Recently, many media outlets and institutions have begun to release predictions for next year's A-shares, with a general consensus being optimistic about next year's A-shares.

I noticed that the vast majority of these institutions only started making such predictions this year, meaning that their optimistic sentiment emerged only after the A-shares experienced a certain upward trend this year. The reasons for their optimism actually existed several years ago, and the same logic would have applied back then, yet I did not see them publish similar viewpoints last year or the year before.

Moreover, if they truly believed in the reasons and logic they are stating, then the funds they managed a few years ago should have had positions exceeding 50%. However, I remember seeing data from the year before and the year before that showing that many funds had positions of less than 30%—this clearly proves that they were not optimistic about A-shares at that time, so I am quite skeptical about whether they believe in what they are saying.

This further demonstrates that when it comes to predicting the future of A-shares and making operational decisions, these so-called media and institutions can be viewed as contrarian indicators—perhaps this is the greatest value of their existence in the A-share market.

Recently, there has been an interesting development: a relatively well-known private equity fund manager from a few years ago has started selling investment courses, priced at a lucky number: 12,888 yuan for 4 classes, totaling 12 hours.

This manager emphasized that she does not lack the tens of millions in course fees; she is selling this course simply out of "occasional goodwill and a sense of responsibility."

I have closely followed this manager's viewpoints and performance over the years.

In terms of viewpoints, she is not much different from many other managers, all talking about "chasing trends" and "finding opportunities," and when discussing her strategies, it’s filled with fancy words.

In terms of performance, she did accurately capture some trends for a period, but in the last three years (as of December 19), the return of one of her funds has significantly lagged behind the same period's CSI 300 Index.

I am reminded of a simple statement made by Mr. Buffett: for the vast majority of people, buying individual stocks is not as good as buying an index. This statement applies equally to so-called fund managers. However, if the vast majority of people were to truly believe this, then probably 90% of fund managers would be unemployed, and 90% of actively managed funds would be liquidated.

As for the future trend of A-shares, I cannot make any guesses; it is beyond my capability. But regarding the exit strategy, I will still use the old approach: when the Shanghai Composite Index falls 20% from its peak, I will not hesitate to liquidate; otherwise, I will continue to hold.

While paying attention to A-shares, I am more focused on various economic data and indicators.

When looking at these indicators, I always have a question:

We know that weak individuals need long-term nurturing, but for those in critical condition, the most important thing should be to administer a strong remedy to save them, right?

If a person cannot be saved, where is the time to slowly nurture and restore their vitality?

The reason for not administering a strong remedy all along is either because there are no strong remedies left or because there is a longer-term, more mysterious plan?

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