Bitcoin is set to enter the new year much as it ended the last one, trapped in a narrow range and waiting for a catalyst. With holiday conditions continuing to drain liquidity from crypto markets, even modest buying has been enough to spark noticeable price swings, despite the absence of major news.

The latest move higher before another dip does not appear to have been driven by forced liquidations. Leveraged long liquidations totaled less than $40 million, suggesting the rally was fueled primarily by spot and perpetual buying in thin conditions. Some traders pointed to renewed corporate demand, particularly after Strategy and Metaplanet delivered new bitcoin purchases, a pattern that has previously supported prices during illiquid periods.

QCP’s Dec. 29 market note showed that options markets are also shaping near-term behavior. Following Friday, Dec. 26’s large expiry, bitcoin perpetual funding on Deribit surged from near-flat levels to above 30%. This shift implies that dealers who were previously long gamma, helping keep prices range-bound, are now positioned short gamma to the upside. If bitcoin rises, these participants must buy spot BTC or short-dated call options to hedge, amplifying upward moves.

On the downside, options markets are showing slightly less caution with Put skews easing compared to last week. This suggests reduced demand for immediate downside protection, particularly as the $86,000 level has continued to hold despite ongoing spot ETF outflows and persistent selling.

Read more: Bitcoin’s Resistance Nightmare: $89,000 Barrier Still Unbroken

Still, traders remain hesitant to draw strong conclusions. Open interest fell by roughly 50% after Friday’s record expiry, indicating a significant amount of capital is currently sitting on the sidelines. How and where that capital returns, whether into options, spot, or derivatives, will likely determine the next meaningful move. Until then, bitcoin appears set to drift sideways into year-end, with patience required on both sides of the market.

• Why is Bitcoin trading sideways near $90K?
  Thin holiday liquidity and low conviction are keeping bitcoin locked in a narrow range.
• What’s driving short-term price swings in BTC?
  Small spot and perpetual buys are moving price more than usual due to reduced market depth.
• How are options markets influencing Bitcoin’s price?
  Post-expiry positioning has shifted dealers short gamma, which can amplify upside moves.
• Is downside risk easing for Bitcoin?
  Softer put skews and support near $86K suggest reduced near-term downside concern.

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