Recently, LIT launched and experienced extreme market fluctuations: the price surged from around 0.03 USDT to nearly 0.5 USDT, achieving a tenfold increase in a short period, with multiple instances of rapid price spikes and drops during trading. The spot trading on exchanges and on-chain transfers have both heated up, with frequent large transfers of millions of LIT tokens. The primary subscription, secondary speculation, and cross-chain arbitrage surrounding LIT are rapidly reshaping the chip structure of this new coin, while early whale addresses are becoming the true protagonists in this game.
Market Explosion and Price Trajectory
● The LIT token began trading after completing its subscription on OKX Jumpstart, with an initial subscription price of about 0.003 USDT. It was immediately pushed above 0.03 USDT at the opening, resulting in an initial increase of nearly 10 times.
● Subsequently, the sentiment in the secondary market ignited, and LIT was quickly driven up to around 0.5 USDT, with the highest premium compared to the subscription cost approaching hundredfold. During trading, there was a rapid pullback and recovery of over 30%, indicating extremely high volatility.
● On-chain data shows that a large amount of inflows and outflows from OKX appeared densely at the market peak, with the number of LIT on-chain transfers increasing several times compared to the initial launch, indicating that primary chips are significantly flowing into the secondary market for realization.
● From the transaction structure, there was a clear selling pressure in the 0.2–0.4 USDT range from early low-cost chips, with short-term funds taking over at high levels, rapidly raising the holding costs and laying the groundwork for subsequent chip redistribution between whales and retail investors.
Whale Behavior and Chip Distribution
● On-chain tracking shows that some early addresses participating in Jumpstart transferred tens of millions of LIT to exchanges in batches shortly after the LIT launch, with single transfers mostly ranging from 5 million to 15 million tokens, clearly exhibiting institutional or professional quantitative characteristics.
● A whale address began to reduce its holdings in segments after the price rose above 0.3 USDT, massively dumping bottom chips acquired at 0.01–0.03 USDT into the secondary market, with a single address cashing out up to several million USDT, locking in substantial paper profits.
● Another type of address did not rush to sell initially but instead transferred LIT across chains to Base, Blast, and other L2 ecosystems, with some funds further injected into Lighter DEX, preparing for subsequent market making or liquidity mining, indicating a more medium to long-term deployment.
● In terms of holding concentration, the top 10 addresses collectively controlled a high proportion of LIT shortly after the launch, indicating that the highly concentrated state of whale-dominated chips still exists, while retail investors are more focused on short-term high-level speculation.
Cross-Chain Flow and Lighter Ecosystem
● Monitoring data shows that recently, LIT has seen multiple on-chain paths from OKX hot wallet → personal addresses → L2 networks (Base/Blast), with single cross-chain transfers generally ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of LIT, indicating that some funds are not primarily for short-term selling but are migrating to ecological scenarios.
● On Base, Blast, and other L2s, LIT liquidity is mainly concentrated in pools paired with mainstream assets, with some addresses depositing LIT into decentralized trading platforms for market making, earning trading fees and potential protocol incentives, forming a closed loop of “withdrawing from exchanges—cross-chain—market making.”
● The TVL of Lighter DEX has significantly increased before and after the LIT launch, with funds mainly coming from early participants and cross-chain addresses, indicating that beyond primary subscriptions, there is a group of on-chain players specifically chasing new coin ecological returns.
● Cross-chain data also shows that some whales are reducing their holdings at high levels on centralized exchanges while retaining some chips on L2 for liquidity layout, attempting to balance between locking in short-term profits and retaining long-term potential gains.
Deep Logic and Risk Structure
The extreme volatility of LIT is not merely a short-term speculation on a single exchange but resonates with the primary subscription model, whale chip advantages, and the demand for emerging L2 ecosystems: low-cost chips gained substantial floating profits at launch, providing ample selling pressure for early addresses; meanwhile, the liquidity demand for quality new assets on L2s like Base and Blast has, to some extent, absorbed the selling pressure, allowing some LIT to complete redistribution along the “exchange → on-chain” path. From a funding structure perspective, whales are offloading in batches at different price ranges and laying out cross-chain strategies, shifting more risk to high-level buyers and FOMO retail investors. Once the incremental funds in the secondary market diminish, the price sensitivity to selling pressure will significantly increase.
Bullish and Bearish Positions and Game Focus
● Bullish View:
● They believe that the current depth and trading activity of LIT reserve ample space for future ecological expansion and more trading scenarios. The on-chain cross-chain and market-making behaviors indicate that some funds have medium to long-term allocation intentions rather than purely short-term speculation.
● The inflow of funds into L2s like Base and Blast is seen as a pre-bet on the potential demand for the Lighter ecosystem. As long as ecological applications gradually materialize, the current price fluctuations are a “necessary pain” in the process of discovering a reasonable valuation for the new coin.
● Bearish View:
● They are concerned that the ultra-low-cost chips obtained through Jumpstart are still held by a few whales. Once external liquidity weakens, the highly concentrated chip structure may trigger a new round of waterfall selling.
● They question whether the current FDV level has already exhausted future growth expectations, believing that without sufficient application closure and real usage demand fully validated, LIT's high valuation resembles a short-term bubble driven by liquidity.
Key Levels and Subsequent Observation Points
In the short term, the market needs to focus on the support and trading opportunities in the 0.2–0.3 USDT range: this is the core price band where early whales concentrated their reductions and some new funds densely took over. If this range is effectively broken down with increased trading volume, it may indicate that more high-level chips are starting to stop-loss and flee; conversely, if the price stabilizes above this range and rises again, it indicates that the market still has new funds willing to continue this chip game. In the medium term, the activity of LIT on Base, Blast, and other L2s, the real trading volume and market-making profits on Lighter DEX will gradually become key variables for assessing its intrinsic value and valuation sustainability. The retention rate of on-chain funds and the speed of ecological expansion will be the true anchors determining how far this round of market can go.
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