2025 has been full of disappointments for the cryptocurrency industry, and the "US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is definitely one of them. 

If you want to understand why the "US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is viewed as the biggest policy rug-pull of 2025, you just need to look at one (obviously fake) screenshot that has been circulating on X (formerly Twitter) this morning.

The facetious image shows a hilarious one-sided conversation of a supposed lobbyist screaming into the void of a government inbox.

HOT Stories Bitcoin Reserve Ends Up Being One of Biggest Fails of 2025Crypto Market Prediction: Shiba Inu's (SHIB) First Big Test in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) Enters Year-End Rally Again, XRP $2 Is Target Again459 Billion SHIB Leaves Exchanges, World’s Highest IQ Holder Bullish on XRP in 2026, Bitcoin ETFs See Worst Performance Since Launch — Crypto News DigestRipple's RLUSD Booms While XRP Underforms

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: since March. pic.twitter.com/IIEVdmE8FJ

— Eli Nagar (@EliNagar) December 29, 2025

To understand the pain in that screenshot, you have to rewind to late 2024. The euphoria was blinding. The plan, as pitched by Senator Lummis and hyped by every influencer with a microphone, was simple: the U.S. would stop auctioning seized Bitcoin and start actively buying it to offset the national debt. It was supposed to be the "sovereign FOMO" event that would send BTC to $500,000.

You Might Also Like
Sun, 12/28/2025 - 20:32 Bitcoin to $10,000? Bloomberg Makes Shocking Crash Prediction ByAlex Dovbnya

However, the government never actually intended to buy it. The "Strategic Reserve" turned out to be a masterclass in ambiguity.

The White House signed the Executive Order establishing the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." However, it turned out that the administration's definition of a "reserve" was simply holding onto the 200,000 BTC the DOJ had already seized from dark web busts. They didn't buy a single satoshi. They just promised not to sell what they already had for free.

The lobby, which spent hundreds of millions getting "pro-crypto" candidates elected, found itself in the position of the sender in that fake email.

The Washington crypto lobby is a complete and abysmal failure. https://t.co/Ijjlws5zsw

— Justin Bechler (@1914ad) December 30, 2025

In the meantime, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), the undisputed "Godmother" of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the industry’s most loyal ally on Capitol Hill, has announced she will not seek re-election in 2026.

Collapsing Polymarket odds 

Polymarket bettors now see only a 28% chance of a Bitcoin reserve being established in the US by the end of 2026. 

The year starts with cautious optimism (roughly 40%), but look at that vertical climb in late February leading into March. The odds surged to their all-time high (nearly 70%) in March.

Then, the line got choppy. It dropped from the 70% highs but finds support around the 40-50% range. This is the "Just checking in..." phase. The big announcement didn't drop immediately, and doubts started to creep in.

Then, there was the phase of acceptance. There were no more spikes, no more rumors, just a slow realization that the "Reserve" was just a rebranding of seized assets.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。