Master Discusses Hot Topics:
Looking back at when Bitcoin hit 90K yesterday morning, I told myself not to get excited and to wait for the U.S. stock market in the evening. If there were real positive factors, it would definitely show after the U.S. market opened. In this low liquidity ghost time, any rise is mostly just hot air.
As a result, it dropped back to 88K in the evening, which is quite normal; it could even be said that not dropping back would be strange. The 90K mark can be called a curse, and I can't be bothered to make up reasons for it.
But the facts are there; once the trading volume increases, the resistance comes out, indicating that a bunch of people are waiting to sell. Want to break through in one go? Sure, but only if there are stronger positive factors and real buying power; otherwise, it's just wishful thinking.
In this market, to put it bluntly, it's specifically designed to punish those who chase after the price (including myself yesterday). Haha, as long as you chase, if you run a bit slow, you'll definitely get trapped within 6 hours, no exaggeration. I still believe that the mid-term top for Bitcoin is the 88.8K, 89.6K, and 90.6K levels I mentioned last week.
Returning to the market, if Bitcoin can truly break last week's high of 90.6K and Ethereum stands above 3072, then a pullback would not be a big issue.
However, the pressure in the 91.8K to 94K range is extremely significant, and there is currently no logical support for a large-scale long position. Chasing after a breakout before it happens only indicates that you are indeed giving away money.
If it were a strong market, history has already told you that once 88.8K is broken, it would directly surge to 92K. After that, a pullback would confirm support; it wouldn't be dragging along like it is now with a constipated face.
The area around 91.8K is the upper band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, the middle band of the 3-day Bollinger Bands, and it's also close to the daily EMA52 (92.4K). For now, it would be a bit absurd to think it could stabilize directly at such a place. So even if it crosses 90.6K, the 91.8K to 92.4K range remains a tough pressure zone.
Additionally, the fluctuations in the U.S. market last night were absurdly small, which made me realize something. It might not just be you and me who are confused; many traders and institutions also don't know how to approach this ghost position. 86.5K has been supported too many times, and going long feels like stepping into a trap.
The decent short positions are in the Asian market, and by the time they wake up, the market has already changed shape. Now, if it drops, no one dares to chase the short; everyone is conflicted. The result of this capital conflict is that no large funds are willing to enter the market, so even the U.S. market is stagnant.
I used to naively think that there was a lot of capital in the U.S. market, and no matter the market conditions, they would flip the table, so I often closed positions early when the market structure showed a bit of promise. Now I realize that the people in the market are not fools; they push when they need to and cut losses when they have to.
More often, they watch coldly, waiting for you to make mistakes. So sometimes, it's better to care less about the outside narratives and trust the market more than to believe in all that nonsense.
As for Ethereum, it still follows Bitcoin. This is a hard rule, and in the current environment, I don't believe Ethereum will have any independent market. But the downside has no bottom; if a big player goes crazy and sells a large order, it could trigger a chain reaction.
Plus, with all the uncertainties in the U.S. macro environment, black swans could appear at any time. Tomorrow marks the end of the year and the month; the main players are stirring things up so fiercely, to put it bluntly, they don't want either side to feel comfortable. Too many contracts have angered the main players.
No matter how things go today or tomorrow, the monthly candlestick for Ethereum has basically formed a cross. I don't care about any interpretations of the cross; my view from January remains unchanged, and I still don't have a bullish outlook. Support at 2835, 2715; resistance at 3400, 3719.
Master Looks at Trends:
Currently, Bitcoin has basically given back all the space from yesterday's rebound; every time the price rises, it gets pushed down, indicating continuous selling pressure above. During the day, pay attention to the range of 86.7K to 87.8K for box fluctuations.
It is still below the descending trend line, and this sideways movement in a downtrend cannot be considered a trend reversal; we need to be conservative in our approach. If 86.7K is broken, the short-term target below can first look at 85.8K.
The area around 87.8K overlaps with the 20 and 60-day moving averages and the descending trend line, making it a clear resistance zone. The RSI is around 46; if it continues to form lower highs, the probability of a downward move will continue to increase.
The first support at 86.7K, if lost, will easily trigger disappointed sellers to flee, posing a risk for further price declines. The first resistance at 87.8K is a position where previous highs, previous lows, trend lines, and moving averages coincide, making it a strong pressure zone.
If the trading volume doesn't keep up, the probability of being pushed back down is very high. Only with an effective breakthrough and stabilization above the second resistance at 88K can we consider the short-term trend broken and a trend reversal formed. Until then, the overall view remains bearish.
12.30 Master’s Band Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
Short Entry Reference: Short in the 87800-88800 range; target: 86700-85800
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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