The biggest airdrop of 2025 may be coming soon.
Author: thedefinvestor
Translated by: Baihua Blockchain
According to Polymarket data, the largest unlaunched perpetual contract DEX—Lighter—is expected to release its Token on December 29. Although the team has not publicly confirmed the specific date for the TGE (Token Generation Event), Polymarket shows a 73% probability of an airdrop occurring on December 29, which may come from insider betting.
Additionally, Lighter's user interface recently added an airdrop submission form, which will expire on December 26. Lighter's founder, Vladimir Novakovski, has hinted that the TGE will take place during the holiday season, and he recently changed his X (formerly Twitter) profile picture to the image below:
(Vladimir Novakovski, CEO of Lighter)
Considering these factors, I believe it is highly likely that Lighter will launch its Token LIT in the coming days (very likely on December 29).
Why is Lighter so popular?
If you have been active in the cryptocurrency community (CT) these days, your timeline has likely been flooded with posts about Lighter and its TGE.
I believe the reasons are as follows:
Lighter is the first perpetual contract DEX to offer zero fees for retail traders, charging only market makers and high-frequency traders, which has attracted a large number of traders.
Similar to Hyperliquid, Lighter has promised a massive airdrop (25% of the total Token supply will be airdropped at TGE) and has built a very strong community.
The team raised $68 million at a $1.5 billion valuation from top venture capital firms like Founders Fund and Robinhood.
The project has strong support from the Ethereum community, as the trading platform is built on an Ethereum L2 with verifiable orders and customizable mechanisms.
This could be the largest airdrop since Hyperliquid, leading to very high market expectations. As of the time of this prediction, its Token LIT has a FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of $3.5 billion in pre-market trading, which corresponds to about $900 million in total airdrop allocation (25% of the supply).
What is the valuation prediction for TGE day?
As mentioned earlier, while it is very likely, it has not been fully confirmed whether Lighter will launch its Token on December 29. However, I would like to share my thoughts on the TGE.
Additionally, I appreciate that the Lighter team stated months ago that the TGE would take place in 2025, and it seems they intend to keep their promise, while many other projects have continuously delayed their launches.
On the other hand, the current market situation is very poor. Even new coins like MON (Monad) have performed poorly, with MON's price dropping below its ICO price a month after the TGE.
Therefore, I speculate that the FDV of Lighter's Token will mostly fall within the range of $2 billion to $3.5 billion, and there will definitely be excitement in the first 24 hours after the TGE. Ultimately, if trading volume does not significantly rebound after the TGE, and Bitcoin performs reasonably well, LIT may rise a few days later.
Regarding Lighter points, here are the expected airdrop limits based on the points you hold (this valuation table is from October 3):
(This is a screenshot of a post by @trevor_flipper from October 3)
Most people in the crypto community (CT) seem to have higher valuation expectations for Lighter's TGE than I do, but I believe there will be significant selling pressure from airdrop "bots" in the first 24 hours, and unfortunately, the market environment is not ideal.
So, even if the FDV is between $2 billion and $3.5 billion, this airdrop will still be a global opportunity for early traders. If the FDV ends up being higher, that would be even better.
Unlaunched perpetual contract DEX remains one of the most worthwhile airdrop opportunities to participate in right now.
If you have engaged in lighter discussions, congratulations, and get ready to welcome your airdrop; you deserve it.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/6176.html
Source: https://www.thedefinvestor.com/p/lighter-airdrop-what-to-expect
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