Welcome to the Qinglan Crypto Classroom. Today, Qinglan will analyze BTC across three timeframes, including the news aspect:
- Technical Analysis: Multi-Timeframe Resonance and Trend Judgment
Short-Term (15-Minute Candlestick): Wow, look at this 15-minute chart, the recent performance is really vibrant! The candlestick has experienced a slight fluctuation since this afternoon, and the price is currently firmly above the moving average system. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages show a very clear bullish arrangement, which is a strong signal for short-term upward momentum! The MACD indicator is even more powerful, with the DIF line crossing above the DEA line last night to form a golden cross, and the BAR (red bars) continues to grow, indicating that short-term buying power is dominant and upward momentum is abundant. The RSI value is also in a healthy range, with no signs of overbought conditions, indicating there is still room for upward movement. Therefore, the short-term trend is clearly upward.
Key Support Level: We can consider 88700 (near the 15-minute MA20) as a short-term support, with 88500 below it.
Key Resistance Level: Pay attention to the recent highs of 89300 and 89500 above. If we can effectively break through these levels, there may be further short-term gains.
Medium-Short Term (1-Hour Candlestick): On the 1-hour chart, we see a relatively strong rebound structure. After experiencing a surge from the evening of the 25th to the early morning of the 26th, Bitcoin saw a large bullish candlestick around 10 AM today, with the price jumping from 87432 to 89199. This candlestick is truly impressive! Although there was a slight pullback afterward, the price is still oscillating at a mid-high level. The MA5 and MA10 moving averages are intertwined above the MA20, indicating that the market is digesting the gains and building momentum. However, the MACD indicator quickly formed a golden cross after a brief death cross, and the BAR has turned positive and is growing, showing that the market's pullback strength is limited and buying power is still actively entering. Thus, the medium-short term trend can be defined as oscillating with a slight upward bias.
Key Support Level: 88400 (near the 1-hour MA20) and the integer level of 88000.
Key Resistance Level: 89200 and 89500, which are short-term resistance levels that will determine whether the market can further expand upward.
Medium Term (4-Hour Candlestick): The trend shown on the 4-hour chart is even more optimistic! After a period of decline and consolidation, Bitcoin produced a substantial bullish candlestick this morning at 8 AM, rising from 87225 to 88844, indicating a strong determination for a bullish counterattack! Moreover, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages have formed a textbook-style bullish arrangement, with the candlestick operating well above the moving average system. The MACD indicator is also strong, with the DIF line recently crossing above the DEA line to form a golden cross, and the BAR is rapidly increasing, showing very strong momentum. The RSI has also risen from a low position to above the midline, indicating that bullish power is dominant. Overall, the medium-term trend has turned into a rebound upward.
Key Support Level: 88000 (near the 4-hour MA20) and 87200.
Key Resistance Level: 89500 and 90000, with 90000 being a psychological level that we need to closely monitor, as it is key to whether the rebound can continue.
Long-Term (Daily Candlestick): From the daily chart, although Bitcoin has experienced a pullback from a high position, the good news is that the MACD indicator quietly formed a golden cross on December 20, with the DIF line crossing above the DEA line, and the BAR has started to turn positive and gradually expand. This is a very positive signal, indicating that the long-term downward momentum is weakening and the market is brewing a potential rebound. Although the current candlestick price is still below the MA20 moving average, the recent candlesticks are all bullish and are challenging the MA20 upwards, showing initial intentions of a breakout. The RSI has also gradually risen from the oversold area to around the 50 midline, indicating that market sentiment is gradually recovering and the shadow of the bear market is dissipating. Therefore, the long-term trend is in a bottoming oscillation and has the potential to turn into a rebound.
Key Support Level: 87000 and 85000.
Key Resistance Level: 89000 (near the daily MA20) and 90000.
- News Aspect: Macroeconomic Positives and Short-Term Volatility
Now let's take a look at the news aspect. The 28 pieces of information collected lean towards optimism, but there are short-term risk warnings.
Positive Aspects: Institutions like BlackRock continue to deposit Bitcoin and Ethereum into Coinbase, which is a real inflow of institutional funds, indicating that large capital sees long-term value in cryptocurrencies. Japan's tax reform treats virtual currencies as financial products and supports loss carryforward, which is a positive optimization of the regulatory environment that will attract more compliant funds. Lugano, Switzerland, supports Bitcoin payments for municipal bills, reflecting the real-world application and further enhancing Bitcoin's recognition. There are also predictions of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by 2026, along with the active development of DeFi and L2 sectors, all of which add long-term confidence to the entire crypto market.
Negative/Risk Aspects: The Trust Wallet browser extension suffered a hacker attack, resulting in losses exceeding $7 million, which undoubtedly raises security alarms and may trigger short-term FUD sentiment, making everyone vigilant about wallet security. The surge in India's cryptocurrency withholding tax, along with previous reminders of a massive liquidation of $150 billion, warns us to be cautious of regulatory and leverage risks while enjoying profits, and not to blindly go all in.
Neutral Aspects: Most news regarding altcoins like XRP, ADA, and ETH has little direct impact on BTC, but it indirectly reflects the overall activity of the crypto ecosystem.
In summary, the macroeconomic positives and continuous institutional inflows are the main themes, providing strong fundamental support for Bitcoin. Although short-term security events may bring some concerns, they seem unable to constitute substantial pressure in the face of strong technical rebounds.
- Trading Suggestions: Clear Predictions and Trading Ideas
Based on our analysis of the technical and news aspects, we can draw clear judgments:
Short, Medium, and Long-Term Trend Directions:
Short-Term (15-Minute/1-Hour): Upward. Technical indicators are all positive, with abundant momentum.
Medium-Term (4-Hour): Rebound upward. Bullish arrangements are formed, with a strong MACD golden cross and positive market sentiment.
Long-Term (Daily): Bottoming oscillation, brewing a rebound. The MACD daily golden cross indicates a potential shift in the long-term trend.
Core Prediction: Bitcoin is currently in a rebound phase from a long-term downtrend, with strong short and medium-term momentum and the potential for further upward breakthroughs. Despite short-term negative news disturbances, the inflow of institutional funds and macroeconomic positives will support its rebound.
Trading Ideas:
- Aggressive Short-Term Traders:
Long Position Idea: Given the upward momentum on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, we can actively look for buying opportunities on dips in the 88700-88800 range, with a stop loss set below 88500.
Target Level: The short-term target is 89200-89500. If it breaks through, we can consider chasing up to 90000.
- Conservative Medium-Term Traders:
Long Position Idea: The bullish arrangement on the 4-hour chart and the MACD golden cross are very clear, making this a good time to enter. Consider placing long positions in the 88000-88200 area on dips, with a stop loss set below 87500.
Target Level: The medium-term target is aimed at the integer level of 90000, and we can even look towards 91000-92000.
- Long-Term Investors:
Positioning Idea: The daily MACD golden cross is a signal that the long-term trend may reverse, making this a good time for gradual positioning. We can gradually build positions in the 87000-88000 range, but be cautious with a stop loss if it falls below 85000.
Target Level: Long-term holders can aim for 90000-95000, or even higher, and should patiently wait for the complete establishment of the larger cycle trend.
Risk Warning: We must remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and hacker attacks and regulatory tightening can bring short-term shocks. Therefore, it is essential to strictly control positions, set stop losses, and avoid excessive leverage. At integer levels like 90000, there may also be fierce competition between bulls and bears, leading to significant short-term oscillations, so be mentally prepared.
Finally, Teacher Qinglan leaves you with a golden quote or motivational saying about trading: "The way of trading is like the nature of water, benefiting all things without contention, and acting in accordance with the great trend."
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