Welcome to the Qinglan Crypto Classroom. Today, we will conduct a comprehensive analysis of BTC's multi-timeframe trends and news:
I. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis "Twisting the Doughnut"
Looking from short to long, this trend is quite interesting, like "twisting a doughnut":
1. 15-Minute Chart (Ultra Short-Term)
A typical "roller coaster" market. The large bearish candle at 4:15 AM dropped directly from 88100 to 87700, signaling the end of last night's rebound from 87600 to 89400. The current price is oscillating around 87800, with MA5 and MA10 both turning downwards. The MACD fast and slow lines have crossed below the zero line, green bars are shrinking, and the RSI has quickly fallen from the overbought zone to below 50.
Conclusion: The ultra short-term trend has shifted from strong to weak, entering a phase of oscillation and correction.
2. 1-Hour Chart (Short-Term)
The story is more complete. The massive bullish candle at 10 AM today (from 87400 to 89400) is very eye-catching, but the subsequent three candles failed to make new highs and instead gradually retreated. This forms a prototype of a "bearish engulfing" pattern. The MACD has a golden cross above the zero line, but the red bars have started to shorten, indicating a significant weakening of upward momentum.
Conclusion: Short-term upward momentum is exhausted, facing correction pressure, with key support in the 87000-87500 area.
3. 4-Hour Chart (Medium-Term)
The pattern is much clearer. After reaching 89400, the price hit a descending trend line from the December 22 high (90588) and then encountered resistance and retreated. Currently, the candlestick is still above MA20 (around 87700), but MA5 and MA10 (around 88200) have formed short-term resistance. The MACD has a golden cross below the zero line but still has space to the zero line.
Conclusion: The medium-term is in a rebound phase within a larger descending channel, currently rebounding to the upper resistance of the channel, with a trend that is oscillating and slightly weak.
4. Daily Chart (Long-Term)
This is clear at a glance. Since the high point of 125000 dollars in early November, it has been a standard descending trend. The price has been firmly suppressed by MA20 (currently around 88900). Although there have been no new lows in recent days, each rebound appears weak, and trading volume is not keeping up. The MACD is flat in the deep water zone, and the RSI is weakly hovering below 50.
Conclusion: There is no doubt that the long-term trend is bearish; any upward movement can currently only be defined as a rebound.
II. Is the News "Cold Wind" or "Warm Sun"?
Combining market news, the current market sentiment is actually "hot outside, cold inside":
1. Real Negative News
The most eye-catching is "Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of 825 million dollars for five consecutive days." This is real selling pressure, and it is institutional behavior, explaining why the price is weak after each rebound. Additionally, "whales transferred 230 million dollars to exchanges" and "BlackRock deposited coins with Coinbase," which have increased the supply pressure in the market.
2. Somewhat "Illusory" Positive News
Although there is a headline "Bitcoin breaks 89000," that was just a brief phenomenon during the trading session. "Visa uses USDC for settlement" and "Grayscale submits a new trust" belong to long-term ecological construction, with limited short-term price stimulation. As for "4chan's prediction pointing to 250000 dollars," it's just something to listen to and not to be taken seriously.
3. Risk Events Disturbance
Events like "Trust Wallet was hacked for over 6 million dollars," while not directly affecting BTC prices, can undermine overall market confidence and the sense of financial security, which is sentimentally bearish.
III. Our Predictions and Trading Thoughts
Combining technicals and news, my core judgment is: the long-term bearish pattern of the market remains unchanged, and the short-term rebound is facing strong resistance, about to test the lows again.
1. Trend Direction
Short-Term (1-3 days): Oscillating downwards. The upper range of 89400-90000 is a strong resistance area (4-hour descending trend line + daily MA20), making it difficult to break through in one go. It is more likely to retest the support below.
Medium-Term (1-2 weeks): Oscillating slightly bearish. We need to observe whether a phase bottom can be established in the 86000-87000 area.
Long-Term (1 month or more): Downward trend. Unless the price can effectively stabilize above 92000, the overall direction is still downward seeking a bottom.
2. Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 88400 (high from an hour ago / 4-hour MA5), 89400-90000 (strong resistance area).
Support Levels: 87500 (recent oscillation platform), 86800-87000 (previous lows and psychological level), 86000 (stronger support).
3. Trading Thoughts
Aggressive Traders: Can try short positions with light leverage when the price rebounds to the 88400-88800 area, placing stop-loss above 89400, targeting 87500 and 87000.
Conservative Traders: Observe more and act less. The current situation is a "tail-end market," with many spikes and little meat. Patiently wait for the price to drop to the 86800-86000 support area, observe for signs of stabilization (such as long lower shadows, hourly MACD divergence), and then consider gradually entering long positions to bet on a rebound, with strict stop-loss.
Remember: All operations must have stop-loss! The news indicates that market sentiment is fragile, and volatility may increase.
Finally, I would like to share a trading quote, which is also what I want to say at this moment:
"In a clear downward trend, every rebound is a gift to reassess short opportunities, not a call to chase the rise."
Let’s stay patient together and wait for a more certain time with a better risk-reward ratio.
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