Editor’s Note: This article is compiled from the Bankless show "12 Big Crypto Predictions for 2026," hosted by Ryan Adams and David Hoffman. In this episode, the hosts do not provide a single "predictive answer," but instead attempt to outline the overall picture of the crypto industry in 2026 through a horizontal comparison of predictions from top institutions such as Bitwise, Coinbase Institutional, Galaxy, Grayscale, CoinShares, and a16z.

Ryan: Merry Christmas, Bankless Nation! On this Christmas Eve, we decided to switch things up. While there has been some movement in the space this week, such as AAVE's "civil war" and Nick Carter warning about the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin, today we want to talk about something grander: the big cryptocurrency predictions for 2026. David, you did a deep meta-analysis for this, right?

David: That's right. I gathered predictions from top institutions like Bitwise, Coinbase Institutional, Galaxy, and Grayscale. I categorized them into three types: those with high consensus (high consistency), those with general agreement but differing details, and those with significant divergence.

Ryan: Great, that saves us the time of reading dozens of reports. So let's get straight to the point—what are those consensus predictions where "heroes see alike"?

High Consensus Predictions

David: Alright, before we dive into the predictions, we need to talk about stablecoins. Regardless of what others think, I can assert that next year will be the year of stablecoins, and this is a prediction that almost everyone agrees on. And we have to thank our friends at M0; their on-chain stablecoin architecture is quite interesting, separating currency issuance from reserve verification.

Ryan: Exactly. The current stablecoin market is too fragmented, with USDC and USDT acting like isolated islands. M0's solution aims to break this situation. If the consensus for next year is that stablecoins will continue to expand, then M0's position will be very advantageous.

Stablecoins Become True Payment Rails

David: Now, let's look at the first "high consensus" prediction—stablecoins will transition from mere crypto infrastructure to true payment rails.

Ryan: I agree with this. Although there have been signs this year, the infrastructure isn't fully ready yet. The consensus is that 2026 will be the year of explosive payment orientation. Galaxy even predicts that the trading volume of stablecoins will surpass ACH (Automated Clearing House) in the U.S.

David: Bitwise has a rather sharp prediction that at least one emerging market currency devaluation will be attributed to stablecoins next year, as everyone rushes to use dollars on the internet.

Ryan: For ordinary users, they actually don't feel the underlying use of stablecoins. Just like with the Coinbase wallet, sending money to others feels as quick as using Venmo, but underneath it’s actually USDC. In the future, we might buy things directly bypassing Visa, making transactions faster and fees lower.

David: Do you think traditional banks like Wells Fargo will get on board? I still have to pay a $25 fee for transfers; it's insane.

Ryan: I see it as unlikely. They will likely be disrupted by more innovative competitors. The future might just be a simple "transfer" button, with stablecoins running in the background, but ordinary users won’t need to understand any of that.

Asset Tokenization Moves to Scale

David: The second major trend is that asset tokenization will move from "experimental pilots" to scaled issuance and collateralization.

Ryan: Aside from BlackRock's BUIDL fund, which is already a tangible product, others are still somewhat in the pilot phase. But by 2026, Coinbase predicts the scale of tokenized assets could skyrocket from the current $20 billion to $400 billion.

David: What benefits does this bring to crypto-native users? 24/7 trading of U.S. stocks? Or can we bring these assets into DeFi lending?

Ryan: It might take a bit longer. After all, the legal complexities of securities tokenization make it hard to just throw them into protocols like Aave. Perhaps 2026 will be the year of infrastructure, and 2027 will be the explosive year for "securities tokens entering DeFi."

ETF Explosion

David: The third prediction is the explosion of ETFs. Bitwise predicts that over 100 crypto-related ETFs will launch in the U.S. next year.

Ryan: Various altcoin ETFs and bundled ETFs will emerge. Galaxy also predicts that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs will exceed $50 billion. The key point is that Bitcoin may be included in mainstream asset allocation models, such as 401k retirement plans.

Market Structure Legislation (Clarity Act)

David: Next, I’m skeptical about this one—market structure legislation may pass in 2026.

Ryan: I’m also 50/50 on this. Although the Republicans are in power, 2026 is a midterm election year, and political maneuvering will be intense. The Democrats might use Trump’s crypto business as a bargaining chip for legislation.

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

David: The fifth prediction is that prediction markets (like Polymarket) will become mainstream. Everyone predicts that Polymarket's weekly trading volume will stabilize at over $1 billion or even $1.5 billion.

Ryan: This feels more like a continuation of a trend, especially since this year's elections have proven the power of prediction markets.

Quantum Computing

David: Another hardcore topic is the threat of quantum computing. Predictors generally believe this will become a hot topic in 2026, but it’s not an immediate threat yet.

Ryan: But Nick Carter has already started sounding the alarm. He believes Bitcoin upgrades are too slow, and if we don’t start addressing quantum threats now, it will be too late by 2030.

David: Exactly. Some in the Bitcoin community are too dogmatic about "Bitcoin as digital gold," thinking it doesn’t need to change. But at the end of the day, it’s software, and software can be cracked by computing power. If Bitcoin insists on not changing its code, quantum computing could really bring it to zero.

Ryan: This "rigidity" is a narrative advantage for Bitcoin, but it’s also a weakness in the face of a technological crisis.

Predictions with Unresolved Divergence

Hybrid Finance

David: Finally, let’s talk about "Hybrid Finance." This term was proposed by CoinShares, essentially meaning Wall Street learning to handle business logic on-chain.

Ryan: So, public chains serve as the settlement and composability layer, while traditional finance provides regulation, distribution, and custody. This combination is inevitable because you can’t turn Apple’s stock into "bearer assets"; if hackers steal it, are we going to let North Korean hackers into the boardroom?

David: Haha, indeed. So when traditional finance enters, smart contracts must have a reversible, intervenable governance layer; it can’t just be "whoever holds it owns it." But interestingly, you can build centralized applications on a decentralized base layer, but not the other way around.

Ryan: That’s why cryptocurrencies still look bullish. When two distrustful countries (like the U.S. and China) want to exchange assets, the only thing that can reassure both sides is a decentralized settlement layer.

Privacy Becomes a Core Competitive Barrier

David: Privacy is also a consensus topic. Galaxy predicts that the market cap of privacy tokens will exceed $100 billion by 2026. But I can only think of Monero and Zcash.

Ryan: Privacy tokens are performing strongly right now, but I have a question: is privacy a feature, or does it require a dedicated application chain (App Chain)? I can easily use a privacy protocol to swap my Solana for Zcash and back; I don’t need to hold Zcash long-term.

David: a16z has a deep perspective; they believe privacy will be the most important "moat" in the crypto space. Whoever solves privacy will create a chain-level lock-in effect because "secrets" are hard to migrate across chains.

Migration from CEX to DEX

David: Galaxy predicts that by the end of 2026, DEX will account for over 25% of spot trading volume.

Ryan: This is an inevitable trend. DEX fees are much lower than CEX, and as long as the user experience keeps up, the traditional trading model of CEX will struggle to maintain high rates. Even Coinbase is "revolutionizing itself" through the Base chain and integrating various DEX protocols.

Tokenomics: Value Capture Returns to Reality

David: Everyone is essentially saying the same thing: crypto protocols must more clearly capture and return value. Previously, it was the "fat chain" theory, believing that value flowed to public chains (L1); now everyone is talking about "fat applications," thinking that value will stay at the application layer.

Ryan: But as an investor, this is quite frustrating. In traditional finance, if I buy Nvidia, I own 100% of its value. But in crypto, value is split into on-chain tokens, off-chain company equity, and even different protocol layers. I just want to buy one asset that captures all the value.

Significant Controversies

While there is consensus on many aspects, there are significant controversies in two core areas: one is DATs (Digital Asset Trusts/Companies), and the other is market cycles.

The Future of DATs (Digital Asset Trusts)

Ryan: What are the points of divergence regarding DATs?

David: There are three completely different scenarios. Coinbase is very optimistic; they believe DATs will evolve into what they call the "DAT 2.0" model. Future DATs will no longer just hoard assets but will transform into professional trading, storage, and even procure "Sovereign Block Space." They see block space as the core commodity of the digital economy.

Ryan: So, if you are a DAT company, you need to learn to sell block space?

David: Exactly. For example, if you are an Ethereum DAT, you generate blocks through staking and then sell that block space to the market. But Galaxy has a completely opposite view: they predict that at least five or more digital asset companies will be forced to sell, be acquired, or even shut down due to mismanagement.

Ryan: What about Grayscale?

David: Grayscale is the most extreme; they think DATs are essentially a "red herring" (a false proposition) and will not be an important factor in 2026.

Ryan: Actually, I think these three views might not necessarily contradict each other. Perhaps one or two successful DATs evolve into the 2.0 model that Coinbase describes, while the weaker ones die off as Galaxy suggests. I agree with Grayscale's view that DATs are more of a "momentum tool" in a bull market; in a bear market, they can only hibernate.

Market Cycles and Annual Candlesticks

Ryan: What about market cycles? Will we still follow that "four-year cycle"?

David: There are two factions here. Bitwise and Grayscale believe that Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026. However, Galaxy and Coinbase think that 2026 will be very turbulent, driven by the macro environment, with prices likely fluctuating between $110,000 and $140,000.

Ryan: You recently wrote an article about "annual candlesticks." What do you see from the hexagrams?

David: It's interesting. If you look at Bitcoin's annual candlesticks, it usually shows 2-3 green bars followed by 1 red bar. In 2025, we just experienced a very small red bar. This can be interpreted in two ways: either the red bar is too small, indicating it hasn't dropped enough, and 2026 will continue with red; or this red bar has completed its correction, and we are ready for a new round of increases.

Ryan: I think it's hard to see a huge red bar in 2026, and it's also unlikely to see super large green bars like in the early days.

David: I agree. My prediction is that 2026 might be a "baby green" or a slightly declining red bar. The volatility range will likely be between -15% and +50%.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin

Ethereum: The Tug of War Between Fundamentals and Valuation

David: After discussing the overall market, let's talk about these two major assets. From a network perspective, 2025 is actually a good year for Ethereum. The technical roadmap has become clear, ZK technology is starting to take shape, and in the long run, Ethereum's potential advantage in quantum resistance is significantly stronger than Bitcoin's.

But the problem is that these advancements have not been reflected in the price of ETH as an asset.

Ryan: Right, as an asset, ETH's performance in 2025 can almost be described as "terrible." Even institutional investors like Tom Lee, who bought about 3.5% of the circulating supply in just five months, have not seen a significant price increase.

David: The real divergence here is not in the fundamentals but in the valuation model itself. If you treat ETH as a "fee-based software network" and value it using the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, then the current on-chain fee income can only support a price of about $39.

Ryan: But if you look at Bitcoin with the same logic, the situation becomes even more extreme—Bitcoin doesn't even have "sales" to speak of, probably only worth $10. Because the so-called income ultimately goes to miners, not to the Bitcoin network itself.

David: This is precisely why the narrative around Ethereum has such a sharp divide. I saw a website that summarized 12 different valuation models: the most conservative price-to-sales model gives a price of only $39; but the most aggressive model, based on Metcalfe's Law—which relates to the number of active addresses and settlement scale—suggests that ETH's reasonable valuation could be as high as $9,400.

Ryan: From $40 to nearly $10,000, this huge range itself indicates that the market is engaged in a "valuation war." Personally, I clearly align more with the perspective of Metcalfe's Law because I believe ETH is essentially a currency-like asset, similar to Bitcoin.

David: The bearish camp on ETH insists that only Bitcoin deserves the designation of "currency," while other public chains are at best just application platforms, and therefore must be valued according to corporate or software logic.

Ryan: This narrative conflict will be amplified infinitely in a bear market. But to me, ETH has always been a "trinity asset"—it is both a smart contract platform and a settlement layer, while also competing for currency premium.

David: In other words, if a public chain is to survive in the long term, its core market value must come from currency premium, not from fee income.

Ryan: Exactly. In a world where block space is continuously expanding, relying solely on fees cannot support a multi-billion dollar L1 network. Whether it's Ethereum, Bitcoin, or Solana, they fundamentally should not be treated as "price-to-sales assets."

David: So your conclusion is that ETH must either become a recognized currency or fall back to the $30 range?

Ryan: That's basically the idea. Where ETH ultimately lands within this valuation range depends on its market dominance as a smart contract platform.

David: Just like in 2021, when Ethereum held over 90% market share, people would value it as a "value storage currency" at $9,000; but if its share shrinks, the valuation logic will shift towards a "corporate model."

David: I believe Ethereum's market dominance has bottomed out and rebounded. Although Solana has performed well, it is no longer experiencing explosive growth. In contrast, Ethereum is back in the spotlight regarding tokenization, stablecoins, and institutional access.

Ryan: Exactly. You can see this as a tug of war between "price-to-sales (P/S)" and "Metcalfe's Law." If Ethereum can technically crush its competitors through ZK technology and faster block times (for example, down to 3 seconds), then its valuation will shift from a "corporate model" to a "currency model."

David: If we calculate based on total value locked (TVL) multiples, Ethereum should currently be worth around $4,000. The core issue now is that the world is still debating how to value ETH, with estimates ranging from $40 to $10,000. In other asset classes, such extreme valuation divergences are rare.

Bitcoin: The Mildest "Winter" and Potential "Iceberg"

Ryan: Let's talk about Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell 6% in 2025.

David: To be honest, if this is the "bear market" we are going to experience, then it is the mildest winter in history.

Ryan: Indeed. This year, the U.S. government tried some tightening policies, which are unfavorable for Bitcoin as an asset that "hedges against fiat currency devaluation," so a 6% drop is quite normal. But we all know that fiat currencies tend to zero in the long run, and this tightening won't last long.

David: The narrative around Bitcoin was very successful in 2025, with institutional faith reaching an all-time high. But I see an "iceberg" on the horizon, especially with quantum computing. If prediction markets indicate an increased possibility of quantum decryption of encryption, Bitcoin's price will react in advance.

Ryan: I even think that if Bitcoin cannot effectively address quantum threats, it could actually be a major benefit for Ethereum.

David: Are you saying that if Bitcoin falls, Ethereum will thrive?

Ryan: In the short term, Bitcoin's downfall will bring down the entire market. But from a medium to long-term perspective (one to two years), if investors find that Ethereum has prepared for quantum protection while Bitcoin has not, smart money will flow to the safer platform. Bitcoin's failure does not necessarily mean the end of the entire crypto industry.

Two Visions

Ryan: To summarize this year, I see the crypto world divided into two visions, and you should allocate some assets to both sides:

Vision One: United Chains of Ethereum. This is also what Bankless has always supported. All functions—value storage, privacy (Aztec), transactions (protocols on L2)—are rooted in Ethereum as a neutral settlement layer. Here, ETH is the core asset, not Bitcoin.

Vision Two: Specialized App Chains. Bitcoin is the application chain specifically responsible for "value storage," Solana is responsible for "high-frequency execution," and Zcash is responsible for "privacy." In this world, Bitcoin is the currency, and all other chains must prove their value by generating real revenue.

David: This feels very much like a "Yin-Yang game." Ethereum seeks order, wanting to stitch all chains together to achieve interoperability; while the other vision is chaotic, with chains that are not subordinate to each other, and the only coordinator is centralized exchanges.

Ryan: This competition will continue until 2026 and even longer.

David: Alright, that's our prediction. Happy holidays, everyone!

Ryan: Remember, this does not constitute financial advice. We are at the frontier, and this may not be suitable for everyone, but we are glad that you can join us on this Bankless journey. Thank you all!

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