Recently, internet service providers (ISPs) in the Philippines have begun blocking major cryptocurrency trading platforms Coinbase and Gemini, raising significant market attention regarding regulatory trends in Southeast Asia. This action stems from the Philippine National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) implementing technical blocks on 50 platforms that are not licensed as virtual asset service providers (VASP) at the request of the central bank (BSP). As of December 24, 2025, at least three mainstream ISPs have confirmed the execution of this directive, resulting in Philippine users being unable to access the aforementioned platforms.

News Analysis: Three Layers of Regulatory Blitz

BSP's policy intent indicates that it is accelerating the implementation of the 2017 "Virtual Currency Act," requiring all VASPs to complete compliance registration by the end of 2025. According to @BitPinas, none of the 50 platforms blocked by the NTC appeared on the list of 27 licensed VASPs published by the BSP. Notably, while the securities broker Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is not a VASP, users have reported similar access restrictions, suggesting that the technical execution may have collateral damage.

On-chain data shows that within 48 hours of the blocking order, the asset outflow from Coinbase by Philippine users reached $12 million, primarily flowing to local licensed exchanges PDAX and Coins.ph. The liquidity depth of the BTC/PHPT trading pair on PDAX increased by 37%, reflecting the market's rapid adaptation to compliant alternatives.

Divergence in Funding and Sentiment

Despite the panic index in the Reddit community /r/phinvest (based on keyword analysis) rising to 62 (baseline 30), speculative interest indicators have also increased. The open interest in PHPT contracts on the derivatives platform Deribit grew by 89%, indicating that some investors are betting that local exchanges will benefit from regulatory dividends. This contradictory sentiment is polarized on Twitter: - Supporters (@CoinGeek) emphasize that "in the long run, this will enhance the institutional attractiveness of the Philippine market." - Opponents (@CryptoPH) question that "overprotecting local exchanges may stifle innovation."

In-Depth Logic: Global Comparison of VASP Licensing

The regulatory framework in the Philippines stands in stark contrast to that of India and the UAE: 1. India Model: In 2025, approved Coinbase's investment in local exchange CoinDCX, implementing a "foreign investment + local operation" dual-track system. 2. UAE Model: Issued special licenses through free economic zones (like DMCC), isolating risks from the mainstream financial system. 3. Philippines Model: Directly blocks unlicensed platforms, forcing users to migrate to local compliant exchanges.

Short sellers are hedging regulatory risks through a delta-neutral strategy, with the funding rate for BTC-PHPT perpetual contracts on Bybit being negative for three consecutive days, totaling -0.18%. Meanwhile, long positions are concentrated in the PDAX spot market, where BTC buy depth has increased 2.4 times compared to last week.

Market Outlook: Conditional Projections

In the short term (Q1 2026), two major variables need attention: 1. If the BSP opens a supplementary application channel (similar to Indonesia's approach in 2024), banned platforms may return to the market through partnerships with local enterprises. 2. If the status quo is maintained, the Southeast Asian market may form a "Philippine island effect," prompting Malaysia and Vietnam to accelerate mutual recognition of licenses.

In the medium to long term, the latest report from the BSP shows that the monthly average trading volume of licensed VASPs has reached 1.8 times that of before the block, validating that the market restructuring driven by regulation is taking effect. However, the existence of technical collateral damage cases (like IBKR) indicates that policy execution still requires fine-tuning.

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