Vaneck, a global investment firm known for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset research, released a report titled “Plan for 2026: Predictions from Our Portfolio Managers” on Dec. 18, presenting a constructive outlook on bitcoin market structure, mining economics, and the evolution of digital payments and stablecoins.

Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel pointed to bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle and the behavior of prior post-election peaks, where sharp advances have often been followed by extended periods of sideways movement rather than abrupt reversals. He stated: “That pattern suggests 2026 is more likely a consolidation year than a melt-up or a collapse.”

Addressing macro conditions and positioning, Sigel wrote:

As debasement ramps, liquidity returns, and bitcoin historically responds sharply. We have been buying.

The outlook emphasized that repeated leverage resets and a reduction in speculative excess have strengthened market structure instead of undermining it, supporting steadier performance as volatility compresses.

Turning to sector-specific opportunities, the report noted: “For 2026, we continue to see the strongest opportunity in the capital-intensive pivot underway in bitcoin mining.” That assessment reflects expectations that miners with disciplined balance sheets, efficient power access, and scalable infrastructure are positioned to benefit as consolidation advances and cost-of-capital differences widen.

Read more: SEC Crypto Task Force Discusses Roadmap for Regulated Tokenization With Vaneck

Beyond mining, the outlook identified targeted growth tied to practical blockchain usage rather than broad token exposure. The report added:

A second but more selective opportunity is emerging in digital payments and stablecoin settlement.

Expanding on that theme, the analysis explained: “ Stablecoins are entering genuine business-to-business payment flows, where they can improve working-capital management and reduce cross-border settlement costs.” Vaneck framed these developments as evidence of a maturing crypto market, with value increasingly accruing to bitcoin, mining infrastructure, and payment rails that intersect directly with traditional financial activity rather than speculative retail-driven segments.

• What does Vaneck expect for bitcoin’s market structure?
  Vaneck expects stronger market structure with lower volatility driven by leverage resets and reduced speculative excess.
• Why is bitcoin mining a key opportunity for 2026?
  The firm sees advantages for miners with efficient power, strong balance sheets, and scalable infrastructure as consolidation grows.
• How does Vaneck view bitcoin’s four-year cycle?
  Vaneck suggests 2026 is more likely a consolidation period than a sharp rally or collapse.
• What role do stablecoins play in Vaneck’s outlook?
  Stablecoins are increasingly used in business-to-business payments to lower costs and improve cross-border settlement.

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