Recently, U.S. Representatives Max Miller and Steven Horsford proposed a draft bill for tax relief on stablecoins and an extension of staking rewards, becoming a catalyst for a market turnaround. The core of the proposal is to exempt capital gains tax on stablecoin payments of up to $200 per user and to allow tax deferral on staking and mining rewards for up to five years. If this draft bill progresses smoothly, it would not only be a significant boon for the crypto industry but could also change the participation model of ordinary users in daily transactions, impacting the overall landscape of the crypto market.

News-Driven Market Explosion

News-driven: The proposal by Representatives Miller and Horsford is undoubtedly the direct trigger for this volatility. The core content of the proposal includes:
● Capital Gains Tax Exemption: Exemption of capital gains tax on stablecoin payments of up to $200 per user, applicable to U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins issued by licensed issuers under the GENIUS Act.
● Reward Deferral Regulations: Allowing taxpayers to choose to defer taxes on staking and mining rewards for up to five years, alleviating the "phantom income" issue and optimizing the tax burden.
● Expansion of Tax Treatment: Increasing the applicability of wash sale rules for certain digital asset lending and active trading of crypto assets, creating a more favorable environment for industry development.

Funding Trends: "Smart money" is highly sensitive to this proposal. Although the overall market sentiment remains sluggish, with the altcoin season index at 17 indicating limited FOMO sentiment, the tax relief on stablecoin rewards and flexible tax arrangements may attract more investors and revive confidence. "Whales" may position themselves in advance, as recent data shows that about 25% of high-net-worth individuals plan to increase their digital currency allocations, quietly igniting potential market momentum.

In-Depth Logic

This volatility is not an isolated event; it is highly related to the current regulatory environment for the crypto industry in the U.S. In recent years, the U.S. has gradually moved towards a more user-friendly regulatory approach to the crypto industry, aiming to promote healthy development while addressing abuses. In stark contrast, the Bank of Korea is also actively advancing CBDC testing, attempting to optimize subsidy distribution and reduce fiscal costs through a digital currency system. This global regulatory trend may provide a reference for the future digital asset policies in the U.S.

Globally, countries are gradually incorporating digital currencies into regulation, reflecting the importance of blockchain technology's impact on traditional financial systems. The continuous growth of stablecoin companies like Tether and Circle has forced governments to reassess their response measures, making the compliance and tax policies of stablecoins important topics.

Bull-Bear Game

Optimists believe that the tax relief proposal injects fresh blood into the crypto industry, and tax incentives will stimulate ordinary users' daily payments and use of staking. Coupled with the strong demand from high-net-worth individuals for digital asset allocations, the market is expected to see a strong rebound in the future.
Pessimists, however, worry that if the proposal does not pass as expected, the expansion of anti-abuse measures may limit innovation, increase market concentration, and ultimately suppress vitality. The struggle between the "old forces" and the "new order" continues to intensify in the market.

Outlook

In the short term, the market needs to pay attention to the progress of the proposal and the regulatory changes it brings, as well as observe its impact on market capital flows. Although the current market sentiment remains low, there may be rare layout opportunities hidden in the context of policy promotion. At the same time, regulatory attention may significantly influence high-net-worth investors' willingness to allocate digital currencies, and the future crypto market is expected to welcome new changes. As the regulatory environment gradually clarifies, market confidence is likely to recover, laying the foundation for further growth.

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