SHIB is seated in an uncomfortable but intriguing position. It is obvious that prices are not rising. All of the major moving averages aggressively cap the daily chart's extended downward trend, which has lower highs and lower lows. The 100 and 50 EMAs continue to slope downward, serving as dynamic resistance, while the 200 EMA is still well above. It is premature to discuss a trend reversal before at least the 50 EMA has recovered.
Shiba Inu's short-term trend
However, the price is no longer falling. We are currently witnessing compression. By creating a shallow ascending structure at the bottom, SHIB has created a short-term hybrid of a descending range and falling wedge. This area usually marks the beginning of a relief rally or a sideways market bleed before another leg down.
SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingView
Momentum indicators show this uncertainty. The RSI is stuck in the middle of the 40s, displaying neither strength nor panic. Although there are still sellers, they are no longer as aggressive.
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Shiba Inu flows
On-chain flows are the crucial part. A one-day net exchange outflow of about 192.6 billion SHIB is not insignificant. That is a significant withdrawal of liquidity from exchanges, and it usually indicates transfers to cold storage or accumulation rather than getting ready to sell. In the past, sustained rallies on SHIB have only occurred after several days of negative exchange netflow. This is consistent with that early pattern.
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What matters is the context. The price was still low when this outflow took place. This implies that instead of chasing candles, buyers are quietly absorbing supply. Although it lessens the pressure to sell right away, there is no assurance of an increase.
The likelihood of a brief bounce or squeeze rises if this behavior persists into the weekend, particularly if overall market conditions do not worsen. The primary invalidation is clear. The bullish implications of the outflow would be negated by a clear breakdown below the present consolidation base.
On the plus side, SHIB must recover and maintain the 50 EMA. Any higher move would still be a countertrend rally without that.
In summary, SHIB is not yet bullish, but it is also no longer blaringly weak. Instead of capitulation, the exchange outflow points to astute money positioning. A relief rally is possible if volume increases and price does the same. If not, more sideways movement should be anticipated before the market makes a move.
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