Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Continuing from yesterday's analysis, Old Bao's hawkish rhetoric about interest rate cuts claims to be easing, but his actions are harsher than anyone else's. The market isn't playing along anymore and is showing its true colors. The only consolation is the expansion of the balance sheet starting on the 12th.

Buying 40 billion in short-term bonds is just for show, a little liquidity to placate the mood. But the dot plot is there, indicating only one opportunity for a rate cut next year. Just one. So, forget about January and March for now. Want to wait for a rate cut? You’ll have to see how the January meeting unfolds.

More realistically, Old Bao will be out of office by May next year. Everything he’s doing now is just a performance for his term; the real person who can turn on the taps will be the new head of the Federal Reserve.

So, the current market is all about creating false signals, oscillating, and tricking traders. The contract market is dominated heavily, and retail investors can't even see the direction clearly. Those looking to reduce positions at 98K can only wait. Meanwhile, those hoping to buy cheap at 80K are also daydreaming.

To make matters worse, the probability of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19 is still quite high. If that happens, U.S. stocks, the forex market, and the crypto market could all take another hit. As for the Christmas rally, by then, foreigners will be on vacation. Liquidity will decrease, and it would be strange for the market to remain active.

Back to the market, the previous 96.5K level didn’t even leave a shadow; it started to turn around at a maximum of 94.5K. This indicates that the bulls are quite weak, and the next likely scenario is a repeated grind between 84K and 94K.

If it touches above 94K each time, it might be pulled up to 96K to 98K to sweep some liquidity before being pushed back down. The short-term supports are at 89K and 87.7K. If these two levels hold, there is indeed a chance to bounce back near 94K.

However, this is still a rebound, not a reversal. Bulls should not get complacent; the market's big expectations have completely shifted from a potential rebound to a range-bound oscillation. The hourly chart of Bitcoin is also wobbly, and retail investors' willingness to go long seems very low.

But the strength of the two-day line's rebound is still increasing, and the three-day line is likely to start next week. If the range of the two Bollinger Bands is broken (93.5K to 94.2K), then wait for the three-day rebound, which could directly pull it to 97.4K to 98.8K.

This is definitely a position to explode the shorts, but the problem is that after it goes up, there might be significant negative news next week to hit it hard back down.

So, the two most critical defense lines now are: for the bulls, the defense at 89K; if it breaks here, it could plunge rapidly. For the bears, the defense at 94.6K; if it breaks here, the short-term bears should prepare to exit.

Ethereum has been much stronger than Bitcoin during this period, with the daily structure forming a standard W bottom. Not only has it returned above the MA30, but the MACD is also preparing to cross the zero line. Once it stabilizes, it could surge towards 3400 to 3500.

But here comes the problem: pulling from 2700 to 3400 is already a 30% rebound, and the structure is complex. All conditions are met, so it should be near a top. Ethereum is currently in the top range, with the extreme being 3660-3700.

Any further rise will leave little breathing room, and the subsequent trend won't look good, but it will eventually crash by more than 20% down to the 1xxx range; there's no escaping that.

Master Looks at Trends:

Currently, the most critical short-term support is at 91.4K. If the first support breaks, 90.4K will be the last line of defense for the bulls. Especially since the range from 90.4K to 91.4K is an important area of concentrated trading; if it breaks down again, the market will immediately switch to a downward structure.

The biggest problem now is the first resistance at 93K, which not only has the first resistance but also overlaps with the 200MA. This level cannot be easily breached; to break through, it must do so after a pullback; otherwise, it’s just giving it away.

The bottom 20, 60, and 120MAs are already positively aligned, indicating that the short-term trend is still upward. If the upper moving averages continue to push up while the 200MA continues to press down, a golden cross may occur, which would be a true signal to accelerate the market.

Short-term operations must focus on the direction of the 20MA and 60MA; the range from 91K to 91.4K is a reasonable pullback area. If it cannot hold here, then bulls should not fantasize about survival.

12.12 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in the 90800-91400 range, Target: 93000-94000

Short Entry Reference: Sell in the 93000-93500 range, Target: 92000-91400

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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