Key Points:
BTC derivatives pricing shows a lack of confidence in breaking through $100,000, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty and Bitcoin's poor performance compared to gold.
Despite the Federal Reserve's actions improving liquidity, whales remain cautious, indicating skepticism about Bitcoin's sustained breakout.
Even as the U.S. Federal Reserve shifts to an expansionary monetary policy, the Bitcoin derivatives market increasingly doubts the cryptocurrency's continued upward momentum. In an uncertain economic environment, and with Bitcoin consistently underperforming against gold, traders remain wary of risks.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to set the upper limit for interest rates at 3.75%, a split decision that was anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a restrained tone at the post-meeting press conference, emphasizing ongoing risks related to a weak labor market and stubborn inflation. However, two Fed members voted to keep rates at 4%, marking a sharp divergence for a committee that typically exhibits strong internal consistency.
Notably, the Fed announced it would begin purchasing short-term government bonds to "help manage liquidity levels." The initial $40 billion plan authorized on Wednesday marks a significant reversal from the steady reduction of the Fed's balance sheet over the past few years, which peaked at $9 trillion in 2022 and is currently at $6.6 trillion.
This increased liquidity enhances banks' lendable funds, supports credit growth, promotes business investment, and encourages consumer borrowing during a slowdown in economic momentum.
According to the Black & Scholes model, a $100,000 BTC call option implies a 70% probability that Bitcoin will remain at or below $100,000 before January 30.
To obtain the right to buy Bitcoin at a fixed price of $100,000 on January 30, buyers must pay a premium of $3,440 upfront. In contrast, the same call option traded for $12,700 just a month ago. This instrument effectively acts as insurance; if Bitcoin's closing price is below the strike price, the option expires worthless. However, as long as the market decisively breaks through $100,000, the holder's upside potential remains unlimited.
Interestingly, the expiration date for Bitcoin's monthly options in January falls just two days after the next FOMC meeting on January 28. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a 24% probability of another rate cut in January. The visibility of U.S. employment and inflation data has been limited since the government funding shutdown in November, increasing uncertainty.
The stock market directly benefits from the Fed's expansionary stance, as companies expect lower capital costs and easier consumer financing. However, Bitcoin's response is often less predictable, as investors withdrawing from safe short-term government bonds are less likely to view cryptocurrencies as a reliable store of value.
The yield on U.S. five-year Treasury bonds was 3.72% on Wednesday, down from 4.1% six months ago, while the S&P 500 index rose 13% during the same period. Traders are concerned that the growth of U.S. government debt could weaken the dollar and exacerbate inflationary pressures, although concerns about overvaluation exist, the relative scarcity of stocks is more attractive.
The trigger factors for a Bitcoin rebound remain uncertain, but rising costs of default protection in the AI industry may prompt traders to reduce their exposure to stocks.
Currently, even as the Fed's policy shift creates more favorable conditions, Bitcoin whales and market makers remain highly skeptical about breaking through $100,000.
Related: The Satoshi Nakamoto statue settles at the New York Stock Exchange, marking a change of era.
Original: “The Fed rate cut could pump stocks, but Bitcoin (BTC) options are bearish below $100K in January”
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