The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome all coin friends to follow and like, and I refuse any market smoke screens!
The expectation of interest rate cuts has finally ended, and we must face reality. The reality is that in the eyes of most investors, the current interest rate cut is almost similar to short-term benefits and is considered speculative behavior. Many friends may be puzzled, especially those who entered the market earlier. When Bitcoin was around ten thousand, similar benefits from interest rate cuts would at least push the market up by several thousand points and maintain stability. However, to this day, the market feels burdened, like an aging man. Why has this situation occurred? This goes back to the bubble itself. Last year's crazy issuance of USDT made Lao Cui feel that it would soon be delisted after issuance, with 5 billion USDT flooding into BN, and it is still unclear whether the subsequent procedures and processes will be completed. There are rumors that Tether has purchased gold worth hundreds of billions, but these events are unverifiable. The excessive issuance naturally pushed the market up, but it also left hidden dangers for this year. It can be said that last year's market rose too quickly, unable to digest the bubble, and this year has been spent fighting against the bubble.
Moreover, although the interest rate cut was achieved last night, it was within the expected range. The dot plot for 2026 shows that there may only be one interest rate cut next year. Don't think that the dot plot is not significant; so far, last year's dot plot indicated that there would only be three interest rate cuts this year, and the number of cuts has not exceeded the scope of the dot plot. Unless a major change occurs midway, such as a financial crisis or a pandemic, as long as there are no such factors, it is highly likely that one interest rate cut will become a certainty. Additionally, yesterday's data showed that we achieved a trade surplus with the United States for the first time, reaching a trillion milestone. This analysis was also discussed with everyone last year, benefiting from the tariffs and blockades imposed by the U.S., which caused foreign trade to be unequal. The things we want, the U.S. will not export, such as large aircraft, chips, and high-end materials. This has also created a strong asymmetry in trade demand between the two sides. This year, the U.S. has realized this, so they have relaxed restrictions on chips.
For predictions regarding trade, if we can correctly understand this, it will greatly help personal investments. Lao Cui predicted the growth of gold, energy, and chips at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the profits along the way did not yield huge returns in the coin circle, they still count as a nice unexpected income. The growth of Nvidia, the surge in gold, and the historic breakthroughs in the energy sector are all areas that can yield positive returns; it just depends on whether you have invested. Currently, the users in Lao Cui's hands are relatively stable. Including the trade aspect, Lao Cui's conclusion is the same: the most difficult times are basically over, and 2026 is likely to be a year of cooperation, so everyone can seize the opportunity. This year's dot plot is not necessarily correct; Hassett's appointment may change certain outcomes. Even if the interest rate cut cycle stagnates, it is still the main theme for expanding the balance sheet. It is difficult to cut interest rates while expanding the balance sheet; once liquidity is released, a certain period will be needed to eliminate inflation.
The U.S. is cautious about interest rate cuts, which is normal. The unstable factor is Trump, who may use tariff revenues to create another wave of inflation. The current president's term cannot always be in the phase of eliminating inflation; good data and inflation coexist. For everyone, patience is required. Hassett is an extremely hawkish representative; as long as he can take office, next year will definitely be a bull market year for the coin circle. Everything can be reset. Today, I won't elaborate too much; after the surge, we are currently in a correction phase. This surge can be seen as being under strong pressure. The main concern for bulls is Japan's interest rate hike, as the timelines for these two events are too close. Additionally, the news about the transition is too vague, at most giving Powell half a year, and it will return to the key decision of the transition. For everyone, it is just a matter of timeline, so there is no need to worry too much.
Lao Cui's summary: Based on the overall information, those holding core chips definitely cannot sell at this stage. If there is operational space, it should always maintain entry after the interest rate hike, and do not blindly enter the market. The principles for contract users are the same; always emphasize risk issues. If profits exceed 1000 points, one must consider whether to exit, rather than thinking about ambushing before the interest rate hike, which is a flawed logic. After the interest rate hike, observe the market trend, or wait for Hassett's appointment to make a decision; these are all good entry points. It is not suitable to decide on trends at this stage because the trend cannot be seen now. The performance of the coin circle cannot be interpreted from a data perspective, but rather the confidence in the future has been severely damaged. As long as confidence can recover, the market will naturally improve. The safety that this confidence can provide depends on Trump's next move. Remember one thing: the fastest payment system currently is the coin circle. If you don't understand, just ask. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL can all find positions. If you are stuck in contracts, resolve them as soon as possible; this month's volatility will not be small!
Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on one piece or one territory, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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