Good morning, crypto friends ☀ I am Wang Yibo! Die-hard fans check in 👍 Like for big profits 🍗🍗🌹🌹

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Last night and this morning, the financial market welcomed a key milestone for the end of 2025 — the Federal Reserve's concluding battle came to a close as expected, while the crypto market wrote a suspenseful footnote for the year-end trend with a thrilling "roller coaster" market. The U.S. stock market showed a mixed trend, with all three major indices closing higher: the Dow Jones rose by 1.05%, the Nasdaq by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 by 0.68%. Most large tech stocks rose, but the cryptocurrency sector led the decline against the trend, releasing adjustment pressure in advance.

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, completing the fifth easing action of the year. Powell emphasized the risks in the labor market during his speech, mentioning the weak employment data and the intensifying wave of layoffs, while clearly downplaying inflation concerns. This statement directly pushed the dollar to record its worst performance in nearly three months. However, the market remains cautious about the subsequent easing pace; CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January next year is only 22.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 77.9%. By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 40.7%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 7.4%. The continuity of policy has become a core concern for the market.

In fact, even before the announcement of the decision, the expectation of a rate cut had been fully speculated by the market. From the dovish remarks of White House officials to the signals of bank balance sheet expansion, multiple policy resonances had already overdrawn the positive effects in advance. Now that the good news has landed, it is not surprising that the crypto market has shown a classic trend of "buying the expectation and selling the fact." Moving forward, initial jobless claims and other high-frequency data, along with institutional fund movements, will become key to the market's turning point. Follow Yibo for continuous tracking of the Federal Reserve's policy aftermath, on-chain data anomalies, ETF fund flows, and other core signals, with real-time updates on layout strategies and target dynamics!

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Bitcoin's performance yesterday can be described as a "game between expectation and reality." After surging to a high of $94,500 the previous day, bullish momentum was exhausted early, leading to a pullback. During the day, it entered a consolidation range around $92,000, with both bulls and bears in a brief balance. The announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision in the early morning became a clear turning point, with the policy boost driving the market to perform a "spike" upward, quickly rising from a low of $91,650 to $94,435, just a step away from the previous day's high, with an intraday volatility of over $2,500.

However, this surge ultimately failed to break the "good news turns into bad news" curse. A dense profit-taking and trapped position above $94,000 formed strong selling pressure, and the market quickly retreated after reaching the high point. As of the time of writing, it has fallen below the $90,000 mark, and the downward momentum is still being released. From a technical perspective, the daily K-line shows a clear "spike and retreat" pattern, with the upper Bollinger Band forming strong resistance. The hourly RSI and KDJ indicators have both entered the oversold zone, indicating significant short-term technical adjustment pressure.

Currently, Bitcoin's core focus is on the support level of $89,200. This position is not only the lower edge of the recent consolidation range but also a technical defense line formed by a previous area of high trading volume. If it can hold this level during the day, combined with the entry signal released by the decline in stablecoin balances, the market may welcome a corrective trend in the $90,000-$91,000 range. However, if the support fails, the $88,000-$87,000 range will become the next line of defense, and if it falls below $87,000, it may trigger a new round of stop-loss selling, reminiscent of the extreme market drop of 8% earlier this month. It is worth noting that despite the severe short-term pullback, Bitcoin ETFs still maintain net inflows, with a cumulative inflow of $257 million over the past seven days, indicating that institutional bottom-fishing may provide potential momentum for support defense.

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Ethereum showed even stronger resilience yesterday, leading the mainstream coins with an independent market performance, but ultimately still could not withstand the overall market pullback pressure. After testing a high of $3,396 the previous day, Ethereum oscillated around $3,200 during the day, quickly rebounding after dipping to a low of $3,305 in the afternoon, demonstrating confidence in its underlying ecosystem. Following the announcement of the rate cut decision in the early morning, Ethereum surged to break the previous day's high, reaching a recent high of $3,446, rebounding over 18% from the low at the beginning of the month, outperforming Bitcoin.

However, similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum's surge also could not be sustained. After digesting the good news, selling pressure concentrated and was released, and it has now fallen to around $3,160, with no clear signs of a bottom yet. From a technical perspective, although the upper Bollinger Band was briefly opened, it did not form an effective breakthrough, and the mid-term resistance formed by the MA60 moving average has not been resolved. The hourly volume has gradually shrunk with the pullback, and the rebound momentum continues to weaken.

For Ethereum, the $3,100-$3,120 range has become the current lifeline. This range is not only the starting point of the previous rebound but also a liquidity support level formed by ETF fund inflows — Ethereum ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of nearly $300 million over the past seven days, providing a buying foundation for this range. If this support can be maintained, it indicates that underlying buying is still present, and the price is expected to launch another attack towards the $3,250-$3,300 range. However, if it falls below, the $3,000 mark will become a mid-term trend dividing line, and losing it may trigger a chain liquidation risk similar to December 1, when Ethereum plummeted 6.36% in a single day, with over 270,000 people caught in liquidation.

Overall, the crypto market is in a game between "macro good news being fully priced in" and "institutional funds bottom-fishing," with short-term trends determined by the effectiveness of key support levels and market sentiment. The CoinMarketCap "Fear and Greed Index" remains in the "extreme fear" range, and such emotional extremes are often precursors to market turning points. Moving forward, it is crucial to focus on the effectiveness of support at $89,200 for BTC and $3,100 for ETH during the day, while closely monitoring ETF fund flows and on-chain liquidation data, as these signals will directly determine the final direction of the year-end market!

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If you are feeling lost — not understanding the technology, not knowing how to read the market, unsure when to enter, not knowing how to set stop losses, not understanding take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while bottom-fishing, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly failing. Instead of frequent operations, it is better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.

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