The U.S. central bank’s widely anticipated move drops the target range to 3.5%–3.75%, a shift officials tied to evolving risks across the economy and persistent uncertainty clouding the inflation picture. The Federal Reserve’s statement noted that economic activity remains on a moderate footing, job gains have slowed, and unemployment has inched upward through the fall — conditions mirrored in the Committee’s growing concern over downside risks to employment.

Inflation has climbed from earlier levels and remains “elevated” enough for policymakers to keep a cautious posture, even as they opted to ease borrowing costs. Traders hardly flinched at the announcement, largely because CME futures markets had already priced in the probability of a quarter-point trim, while Polymarket and Kalshi bettors echoed the same conviction. The market is likely waiting for Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference to infer whether or not he will be hawkish or dovish.

The decision arrives as bitcoin trades just a hair below the $93,000 range, with market watchers splitting their attention between monetary-policy calibration and crypto’s ongoing resilience at elevated levels. Bitcoin did start to rise following the announcement. Fed officials emphasized their commitment to restoring inflation to the 2% target, vowing to continuously assess incoming data and adjust policy if necessary.

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The vote reflected a divided Committee, with two dissenters preferring no cut and another pushing for a deeper half-point reduction. Notably, that person was Stephen Miran. The Fed also said it will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasuries to maintain ample reserves, underscoring its intent to keep financial conditions orderly while navigating an uncertain global backdrop.

• Why did the Fed cut rates today?
  The Fed cited rising downside risks to employment and lingering inflation pressures.
• How accurate were CME futures and prediction markets?
  CME traders and bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi overwhelmingly expected a quarter-point cut.
• Where does bitcoin stand after the decision?
  Bitcoin is holding just above $92,000 as traders absorb the policy move.
• What happens next with Fed policy?
  Officials say future adjustments hinge on incoming data, inflation trends, and employment conditions.

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