- What do you think about the recent collapse of Circle? Is there a possibility of USDC decoupling? Should I exchange my USDC for DAI?

Recently, Circle's stock price has plummeted, likely influenced by the broader environment and profit expectations. However, these factors theoretically should not affect USDC's decoupling. The key to USDC's decoupling is whether its dollar reserves genuinely match the issuance of USDC. As long as the reserves are sufficient, USDC is generally safe.

I mainly hold DAI as a stablecoin.

- China hasn't experienced a comprehensive asset price crash like Japan. … China is still different, …

China is certainly not exactly like Japan.

I have been repeatedly thinking and comparing this issue while reading Gu Zhaoming's "The Great Recession" and "Lessons from Japan," for example:

Back in Japan, there was not only a severe bubble in the housing market but also in the stock market. However, our country's stock market does not have a serious bubble;

In Japan, many industries were dragged down by the real estate and stock market bubbles, leading to widespread balance sheet recession. In our country (although there is no publicly available data on this), it seems that industries like the internet and high-tech have not fallen into a severe balance sheet recession like Japanese companies did;

Gu Zhaoming believes that the best way to address balance sheet issues is through fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. Japan made serious mistakes in this regard, especially in the early stages of the recession, which delayed their response. However, our country has always been relatively cautious with monetary policy and has placed great importance on fiscal policy;

The above three points summarize some important relative advantages of our country being "different."

However, our country also has another aspect that lacks relative advantages, and I will not publicly share those differences.

After comprehensively comparing these two types of "differences," my view remains that I cannot be too optimistic.

Some readers have mentioned that there are issues with the authenticity of the data involved. This is also a significant obstacle when judging the future.

Speaking of data, many people like to say that XXX's data has problems—this is indeed true.

In fact, regardless of the country, whether it's the U.S., Japan, or Europe, very few people truly believe that their data is 100% real and accurate. However, the difference between data of quality 50 and data of quality 80 is still very significant, enough to obscure the truth, distort facts, and lead to misjudgments in the overall direction.

I want to emphasize one point:

Investment involves using one's own hard-earned money to be tested in the market. Therefore, for investors, maintaining an objective and neutral attitude is more important than for people in any other field. If investors approach issues with colored glasses and cannot shake off the influence of market sentiment, they will ultimately face severe punishment from the market.

- Let's talk about projects in the Virtual ecosystem.

Currently, there aren't many projects in the Virtual ecosystem that can sustain their popularity, but occasionally, new hotspots can revive a batch of long-dormant projects. For example, recently, AI Agents related to robots in the ecosystem have become popular again. However, do these projects have sustained and stable profits and revenues? At least, it doesn't seem so right now.

So even when I see some suddenly emerging projects, I won't easily participate; I still feel more secure with Virtual itself.

- Recently, quantum algorithms have been hot, claiming they can crack Bitcoin.

It is a fact that quantum computers can break the encryption algorithms currently used by Bitcoin.

Such news tends to emerge every year and create a stir.

I remember a few years ago, the most sensational statement was made by the founder of Huawei during a television interview, saying, "Digital currency is worthless in the face of quantum computing."

However, after a few days of excitement, no one discusses it anymore.

First of all, quantum computers are still far from being commercially viable.

Secondly, there are already Bitcoin wallets that are resistant to quantum attacks.

Finally, researchers have been studying methods to resist quantum attacks in the crypto ecosystem for over a decade. Achieving quantum resistance for Bitcoin is not that difficult, and I believe it will eventually be realized.

In summary, these concerns seem unnecessary at this point.

- What do you think about the future market? Has the four-year cycle been completely overturned?

As this market cycle has developed, aside from my earlier belief that it is a very atypical bull market, there is another noteworthy characteristic:

The market's decline does not seem to have been too severe.

At least compared to the last bull market, the current decline is not significant. I remember in the last bull market, Ethereum dropped from over $4,000 to a low of around $800. But in this cycle, it seems the lowest it has dropped is just over $1,500.

More importantly, there haven't been any particularly severe sudden collapse events in the ecosystem so far, unlike the last cycle when LUNA and FTX experienced sudden collapses that dragged the entire ecosystem down.

In this cycle, the subsequent decline of various popular projects in the ecosystem seems more related to a lack of momentum or gradually dissipating popularity. In my view, this is a very normal phenomenon.

So my overall feeling about this market cycle is more one of boredom and lack of interest.

On the other hand, Ethereum's upgrades this year have clearly been much faster and more efficient than in the past, giving the impression that the team has "regained its youth" and "come back to life."

This rapid iteration not only benefits Ethereum itself but also lays a better and stronger platform foundation for the entire crypto ecosystem. It has made significant progress in both performance and usability compared to the past, and this progress is planting the seeds for new applications and disruptions in the future. These seeds are likely to sprout and emerge next year or the year after.

Therefore, from this perspective, I believe that at least for the crypto ecosystem based on Ethereum, the four-year cycle rate may not continue to hold. In the coming years, we may see more optimistic progress and scenarios.

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