Due to the significant deterioration in Bitcoin's performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the stagnation of its upward trend, Standard Chartered has drastically lowered its multi-year price forecast for Bitcoin. The bank has revised its price target for Bitcoin at the end of 2025 from the original $200,000 down to $100,000. At the same time, although Standard Chartered remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term potential to reach $500,000, the timeline has been pushed back from 2028 to 2030.
Meanwhile, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) officially released Interpretive Letter No. 1188 on the 9th, clearly confirming that national banks can legally engage in risk-free principal transactions involving crypto assets under certain conditions. Encouraged by this news, Bitcoin quickly surged past $94,000, and Ethereum also saw a significant rise, reaching $3,300. However, it is important to pay attention to the upcoming release of the U.S. third-quarter labor cost index at 21:30 Beijing time today, as well as the December interest rate decision to be announced at 3:00 AM. Current market data shows an 89.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% in December, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 3:30 AM, necessitating caution regarding potential volatility from major data releases.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
The current price is oscillating in the Fibonacci retracement range of 0.382-0.236, which is a typical strong retracement zone. After previously reaching $94,589, it retraced to around $90,495, found support, and has pulled back up, indicating strong buying pressure. As long as it does not fall below the 0.5 level, approximately $89,127, the upward structure remains intact.
The middle band of the Bollinger Bands continues to rise, with Bitcoin's price standing above the middle band, signaling a bullish trend. The price is currently being pressed by the upper band, indicating a phase of consolidation and accumulation. The key is to avoid falling below the middle band; otherwise, the trend may weaken.
Although the MACD has pulled back from a high position, it has not formed a death cross or fallen below the zero line, which is crucial. The shortening of the MACD histogram indicates that the bears are not maintaining their strength, and the DIF and DEA are entangled above the zero line, suggesting that the bullish structure is still in place. As long as the MACD does not form a death cross and break down, the trend remains bullish.
The KDJ is currently starting to turn at a low level, with the possibility of a golden cross. Both the K and D values are below 50, and if the J line can rise quickly, there is a good chance for a short-term rebound. This indicator mainly signals short-term movements.
The Federal Reserve's December rate cut meeting is the core driving force. The market generally expects this meeting to signal a rate cut, and as a liquidity asset, Bitcoin typically benefits from strengthened rate cut expectations. The main players are likely waiting for this trigger point, adjusting through early consolidation.
In summary, Bitcoin is currently in a strong Fibonacci range, the MACD maintains a bullish structure, the KDJ is brewing a rebound, and the Bollinger Bands still show a bullish trend. Coupled with rate cut expectations, there is considerable upward momentum. I believe it is very likely to challenge the $94,500-$96,000 range next. The key is not to fall below $89,100, which is the trend dividing point.
In terms of operations, the upper resistance levels are at $94,500 and $96,000, with strong support at $90,500 and trend support at $89,100. As long as it does not fall below $89,100, remain firmly bullish. The current market is prone to shakeouts, so do not be easily shaken out.
Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it is better to provide you with the correct mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; learning to earn for a lifetime is more valuable than making a quick profit!
Written on: (2025-12-10, 19:40)
(Text - Master Coin Talks) Disclaimer: Online publication may have delays; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment involves risks; proceed with caution!
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