On Tuesday, as the market became more volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, the price of Bitcoin once again failed to break through the $94,000 resistance level.
Key Points:
According to Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday is now 96%.
If key support levels are broken, the BTC price could drop to $84,000.
The last two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for this year began on Tuesday, with the interest rate policy decision expected to be announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM (Eastern Time).
Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25%, which would be the third rate cut this year.
Polymarket shows a 96.8% probability of rates falling to between 3.50% and 3.75%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 3%.
However, any bullish price movements resulting from a rate decrease may have already been priced in by the market.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin fell back to $92,000 as the market worried that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks after the meeting could cause further market turmoil.
"Yesterday's weak employment data slightly dampened hopes for a rate cut and shook traditional financial markets; now all eyes are on the Fed and wage data," Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC stated in a post on X on Wednesday, adding:
Therefore, the market will closely monitor Powell's wording at the FOMC press conference to see if there are any changes in tone.
Market commentator Wess stated on Tuesday: "Right now, the market has priced in a '25 basis point rate cut', but the real drama will unfold in Powell's speech."
Bitcoin must convert $93,300 into support to aim for new highs above $100,000.
To achieve this, Bitcoin/USD must first return above the 50-day simple moving average (yellow line) located at $98,000.
The psychological level of $100,000 is particularly important for Bitcoin's price, as repeated resistance at this level could trigger another round of selling, similar to what was seen in February.
Above this level, the major supply zone extends to $108,000, where the 200-day simple moving average is located. This trend line was first breached on November 3 since losing support on April 22.
Bulls need to overcome this barrier to increase the probability of Bitcoin hitting $110,000.
Conversely, bears will attempt to maintain the $94,000 annual opening resistance level, thereby increasing the likelihood of a drop below the new low of $90,000.
A key area of focus lies between $90,000 and the previous low of $87,500 reached last Sunday. Below this point, the next step would be to retest the $84,000 low from November 21, erasing all gains from the past three weeks.
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC is watching for a rebound to $98,000, warning that a drop below $91,000 would have catastrophic effects on the market.
The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows a significant liquidity cluster between $93,000 and $96,000. Below the spot price, the area to watch is $91,500.
This highlights the areas where prices may fluctuate, depending on the outcome of today's FOMC meeting.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) wallet linked to Silk Road transfers $3 million to a new address
Original: “Key Bitcoin (BTC) Price Levels to Watch Before the Last FOMC Meeting of 2025”
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