In the midst of strategizing, we can win from a thousand miles away. Hello everyone, I am Lin Chao, a global financial market observer, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, bringing you the most in-depth trading information analysis and technical teaching.

I have paused my updates for a while to distance myself from the market. It is not because there are any special movements in this market that forced me to leave. As a mature trader, one must learn to detach from the market at the right time to avoid becoming numb during the long-term trading process. Trading itself is a very sensitive and strict matter; if you cannot make yourself comfortable, trading will not go smoothly. Especially in the cryptocurrency market, which operates 24/7, if you do not learn to appropriately let go and distance yourself from the market, you will ultimately be consumed by it. During my break, I received many private messages from fans hoping for a simple judgment on the recent market trends. Today, I will share my views on the current market with everyone.

First, the conclusion: now is a time to consider entering the spot market.

Firstly, this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. Most people believe that a 25% rate cut is inevitable. I think the current market uptick is more about speculation regarding rate cut expectations. Whether we can enter a real bull market cycle next year will depend on how much liquidity the Federal Reserve injects into the market. Currently, there are no urgent events (like the global pandemic previously), and even if liquidity increases, it will not be a flood-like injection but rather a slow and cautious approach. Considering that the Federal Reserve has stopped tapering since December 1, the China-U.S. relations have entered a new phase of easing, and the Fed Chairman Powell will be replaced next year (most likely by someone close to Trump), with a series of favorable policies such as entering a period of quantitative easing after stopping tapering, we can expect 2026 to be a real bull market. Therefore, at this stage, for those who still have capital, it may be a good time to buy the dip in the spot market.

From a technical perspective, since it is a bull market, we should use a broader timeframe for judgment. From the BTC monthly chart, although the decline over the past three months has caused anxiety, it has not changed the upward trend of the larger cycle. The MA moving averages are still in a healthy bullish arrangement. Additionally, strong support has formed below the long-term moving averages, stabilizing the BTC price around $90,000. From the daily chart, after three months of correction, there are now clear signs of a bottoming out in the BTC daily trajectory, with moving averages crossing and forming a distinct double bottom pattern, and ETF purchases continuing to increase. Based on this information, we can speculate that this moment may become the bottom of the phase bear market. But why do I not recommend using contract leverage to enter the market at this time? Although I am fully confident about next year, considering that we are at the end of the year and will soon enter the holiday season, there may be risks of institutional funds withdrawing. Therefore, entering the market with spot purchases for long-term positioning is currently the most prudent approach.

Lin Chao's Summary

Choosing to distance myself from the market in recent weeks is actually closely related to the market situation. Since late September, the cryptocurrency market has continued on a downward trajectory, falling for three months, with constant disputes within the market. Some shout that a bear market is coming, while others are always waiting to buy the dip, and many choose to average down during the decline, but more are stuck halfway up the mountain. In my view, everything is normal; the market is never wrong; the only mistake is ours. No matter how much one loses in this phase bear market, as long as one does not cut losses, it is just an unrealized loss. The same goes for a bull market; no matter how much the market cap increases, as long as one does not take profits, it is merely an unrealized gain. There is a saying in trading: those who can buy are apprentices, while those who can sell are masters. Remember, money only belongs to you when it is in your pocket.

Starting from March 2025, a small bull market has greatly boosted everyone's confidence, giving rise to hope, and many have entered the market with their capital and leverage. This small bull market has indeed allowed many to make money. BTC rose from $70,000 in March to a peak of $126,000. ETH led the altcoin system, rising from a low of $1,400 to nearly $5,000, an increase of nearly 300%. The spread of the profit-making effect is quite rapid, and many newcomers confidently entered the market, even leveraging to try to make a big profit at the peak of the bull market. But looking back now, it seems that not many have truly made money. Especially after three months of cleansing, seeing profits turn into losses, most people cannot help but cut losses and give up their positions, not to mention those who leveraged long. Trading has never been about buying and then ignoring it while waiting for assets to rise. The timing of entry, position management, experience, use of tools, and patience are the keys to surviving in the market.

If you are feeling confused—unable to understand the technology, not knowing how to read charts, unsure when to enter the market, not knowing how to set stop losses, not understanding take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to buy the dip, unable to hold onto profits, missing market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. Lin Chao can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words; repeatedly failing is not as good as finding the right direction. Instead of frequent operations, it is better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable.

The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving capital and making good asset allocations are essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never the gains and losses of a single pass or moment, but rather careful planning and knowing when to stop to gain.

The global market is ever-changing, and the world is a whole. Follow Lin Chao to gain a top-tier global financial perspective.

This article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The cryptocurrency market has risks; investment requires caution.

For real-time consultation, feel free to follow the public account: Lin Chao on Cryptocurrency.

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