Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been strongly driven by macro policy expectations, showing a significant rebound trend. Last night during the US trading session, signals of market easing were concentratedly released, directly igniting bullish sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum both surged significantly before slightly retreating, currently in a phase of pullback and consolidation. The subsequent market trend remains highly dependent on the landing of macro news and the intensity of technical corrections.
The expectation of macro easing has become the core driving force of this market trend. White House economic advisor Hassett released strong statements about interest rate cuts last night, clearly indicating that the cut could exceed 25 basis points, which far exceeds the market's previous expectation of a "regular 25 basis point cut." Meanwhile, former US President Trump also publicly pressured, defining "whether to cut interest rates" as a core standard for evaluating the performance of the Federal Reserve Chairman, further strengthening the market's confidence in rate cuts. More notably, there are rumors circulating in the market that US banks may start expanding their balance sheets. If this expectation materializes, it will inject a large amount of liquidity into the market, providing strong support for risk assets.
Data from the labor market unexpectedly became a "booster" for easing expectations. The US Department of Labor announced that the job vacancy data for October far exceeded market expectations. This data seemingly reflects strong labor demand, but combined with other recent employment indicators, the market is more inclined to interpret it as a "short-term anomaly under structural stagnation in the job market," leading to the belief that the Federal Reserve needs to stimulate the economy and stabilize employment through interest rate cuts. Under the accumulation of multiple favorable factors, bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market erupted, with Bitcoin briefly rising to around 94,500, while Ethereum broke through the key resistance level of 3,250 and surged strongly to the 3,400 mark, before both experienced slight pullbacks due to profit-taking, currently consolidating around 92,200 and 3,300, respectively.
The technical analysis shows that the current market is in a "high-pressure state awaiting correction." The daily K-line for Bitcoin indicates that the price rebound has reached the upper resistance level of the daily chart, and the high followed by a retreat verifies the effectiveness of this resistance zone; Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, although it briefly expanded the upper band of the daily chart, it quickly encountered resistance from the MA60 moving average and failed to form an effective breakthrough. From the perspective of short-term indicators, the RSI and KDJ indicators for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the 4-hour level are both in the overbought range, indicating a clear need for corrective adjustments, which also suggests that the daytime trading is likely to focus on pullback and repair. However, it is important to note that the macro easing benefits have not yet been fully digested. If key support levels can be maintained during the pullback, there is still a possibility of a rebound in the short term.
Key levels and subsequent risk events need to be closely monitored. In terms of levels, Bitcoin's short-term resistance is concentrated at the upper band of the daily chart around 94,000. If it can break through this range, the next target will point to 96,000; the support below is seen at the short-term moving average support of 91,800, with strong support at the psychological level of 90,000.
For Ethereum, the resistance above focuses on the previous high point of 3,400 and the psychological level of 3,500, while the support below has moved up to 3,220 and 3,150, with the 3,000 level serving as an important psychological support level, remaining a core defensive area during the pullback. On the macro front, initial jobless claims data will be released during tonight's US trading session. As a high-frequency indicator reflecting the short-term prosperity of the job market, its results will directly impact the market's expectations for interest rate cuts; moreover, the Federal Reserve meeting in the early morning is a "decisive event" for this market trend, and it is crucial to pay attention to whether there will be a rate cut, the extent of the cut, and the guidance on future easing paths in the policy statement.
Overall, the current cryptocurrency market is in a balanced state of "macro favorable support + technical correction pending." A short-term pullback does not change the long-term logic driven by easing. Everyone needs to respond rationally to the intraday correction while closely tracking key events such as tonight's Federal Reserve meeting, and be wary of the risk of "profit-taking after expectations are fulfilled."
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