Key Points:
Economic uncertainty, delayed employment reports, and a weak real estate market have led traders to withdraw from Bitcoin.
Professional traders are incurring high costs to hedge against a decline in Bitcoin prices, while in China, stablecoins are being sold at a discount to exit the crypto market.
Bitcoin faced a $2,650 pullback after failing to break through $92,250 on Monday. This movement followed a reversal in the U.S. stock market amid uncertainty in the job market and growing concerns over inflated valuations in AI investments.
Traders are currently awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, but the likelihood of a swift return to $100,000 depends on risk perception.
The premium of Bitcoin monthly futures relative to spot prices (basis rate) has remained below the neutral 5% threshold for the past two weeks. Weak demand for bullish leverage reflects a 28% decline in Bitcoin since it reached an all-time high in October. However, concerns over global economic growth are also affecting market sentiment.
Due to a 43-day funding freeze that ended in November, the U.S. government's official data on employment and inflation has been delayed, leading to reduced visibility on economic conditions. Therefore, the consensus for a 0.25% rate cut in December has not been enough to spark optimism, especially after a private employment report showed 71,321 layoffs in November.
Additional pressure from the U.S. real estate market is also accumulating: Redfin data shows that 15% of home purchase agreements were canceled in October due to high housing costs and rising economic uncertainty. Furthermore, according to CNBC, the number of delisted properties increased by 38% compared to October 2024, while the median listing price in November fell by 0.4% year-on-year.
After a forced liquidation of $92 million in bullish leveraged Bitcoin futures, the speed of Bitcoin's drop to $90,000 has accelerated. A weak macroeconomic outlook may pressure the sentiment of Bitcoin traders, but the S&P 500 is only 1.2% below its historical high of 6,920 points.
Whales and market makers are demanding a 13% premium to sell Bitcoin put options on Deribit. The inflated cost of downside protection is a typical feature of a bearish market. However, the rejection at $92,000 on Monday did not affect traders' positions, reinforcing the support level at $90,000.
As trading of stablecoins against local currencies is below par, traders are also withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market in China. This risk-averse signal supports a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin, but it does not necessarily mean traders expect prices to fall to $85,000 or lower.
Under neutral conditions, Tether should have a premium of 0.2% to 1% over the official U.S. dollar exchange rate to offset cross-border friction, regulatory barriers, and associated costs. A discount below the official rate indicates strong demand for exiting the cryptocurrency market, a pattern commonly seen in bear market phases.
The lack of inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in recent weeks has also dampened demand for bullish exposure. Whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in the short term largely depends on improvements in visibility regarding the U.S. job market and real estate conditions, which may take longer to materialize than a single Federal Reserve decision.
This article is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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