In the current context of the cryptocurrency market, the price trend of Bitcoin, on-chain transfers, and institutional holding dynamics reflect a complex market sentiment. Bitcoin's price has stabilized around $90,000, but it faces a tug-of-war between short-term downward pressure and long-term bullish signals.

FOMC Meeting and Bitcoin Price Reaction

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of the Federal Reserve have historically had a significant impact on the market, especially on Bitcoin price volatility. During this year's seven FOMC meetings, Bitcoin's price only increased by 15% after one meeting, while it declined after the other six. This phenomenon may be closely related to liquidity expectations and the "buy the rumor, sell the news" mechanism, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to adjustments in macroeconomic policy.

Institutional Holding Dynamics

Recently, a new wallet address received 900 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $81.59 million. This transfer is often seen as a signal of institutional investor activity, indicating strong market interest in Bitcoin. Additionally, the Japanese listed company ANAP Holding increased its holdings by 54.51 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 1,200.2 Bitcoins, demonstrating the company's continued optimism about Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Exchange Outflow Situation

In terms of liquidity, the net outflow of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges (CEX) over the past year reached 403,200 Bitcoins, accounting for 2.09% of the total Bitcoin supply. This significant net outflow indicates that holders are increasingly inclined to self-custody, amplifying buy signals in the market while potentially reducing short-term selling pressure. Changes in CEX outflow data reflect deep shifts in investor confidence, especially in the face of potential market volatility following FOMC meetings.

Market Predictions and Risk Factors

According to data from Polymarket, the market's probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year has dropped to 30%. This adjustment reflects a shift in market sentiment towards the pessimistic side, likely exacerbated by macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, recent cryptocurrency fraud cases remind us that there are still severe security risks within the market, with related groups stealing approximately 4,100 Bitcoins, valued at $263 million at the time of the incident, now worth nearly $371 million, highlighting the amplifying effect of Bitcoin's appreciation on historical losses.

Conclusion

Currently, the Bitcoin market is caught in a struggle between short-term downward pressure and long-term market confidence. Although recent exchange outflows and institutional increases indicate that investors still hold a positive attitude towards Bitcoin, the impact of FOMC meetings and the potential risks from fraud cases will continue to trouble the market. Investors should cautiously assess market dynamics and their potential impact on their strategies in this context.

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