Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 14.50% from a recent low of $86,000, returning to around $93,000, while traders show a clear divide on whether this is a bullish "recovery" or the start of a bear market.
Key Points:
Analysts point out that BTC's rebound is actually a bull trap, with risks potentially expanding down to as low as $40,000.
Google Trends data indicates that the price may first rebound to $97,000 before continuing to adjust.
Among bearish analysts, CryptoBirb maintains a firm stance, believing that the current and future BTC price "rebound is only for selling," rather than a signal for the widely expected year-end target of $150,000 or higher.
The primary argument supporting the bull trap theory mentions a classic technical pattern known as the "bear flag," which typically evolves into further declines during a downtrend.
Mister Crypto, Celeb Franzen, and several other analysts have pointed out this bearish continuation pattern during BTC's rebound, with some analysts suggesting that BTC's price is likely to drop towards $80,000.
An in-depth analysis of the bear flag reveals a technical downside target of approximately $77,100 in December, calculated by overlaying the height of the previous downtrend to the potential breakout point near the $88,000 support level.
This would represent a decline of about 16% from the current price level.
Analyst Leshka notes that BTC's current structure is "almost identical" to the 2021 cycle.
He shared a comparison chart of BTC patterns, including the recurring double top formation, a sharp drop towards the cycle support level, and a deceptive rebound that ultimately forms a bull trap, followed by a more severe crash.
In a similar situation in 2021, this trap was followed by a prolonged decline that halved BTC's value. The 2025 pattern shows almost the same setup, with prices hovering in the same support range, expecting a subsequent downward breakout.
Leshka warns that if this pattern repeats, BTC could return to the $40,000 area in early 2026, dropping over 50% from current levels.
Analyst Alex Wacy also points to the same downside target, citing BTC's retreat from a multi-year uptrend line resistance, which typically leads to a 70% correction.
Analyst AndrewBTC noted in a post on the X platform on Monday that last week, Google searches for "Bitcoin bear market" hit a five-year high, stating that BTC "crowd is panicking again."
Historically, these panic sentiments often appear on the eve of large-scale sell-offs in the BTC market.
For example, in May 2021, when BTC's price hovered around $60,000, it experienced a correction of over 50%, and in June 2022, when the price was around $26,000, BTC subsequently slid to the cycle bottom of about $15,450.
The surge in Google search trends for "Bitcoin bear market" in August also followed a drop in BTC prices.
AndrewBTC warns that Bitcoin is likely to rebound to the $97,000 area in the next phase, but this is merely to trap bullish investors, adding:
Related: Analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) bulls must hold key levels to avoid dropping to $76,000
Original: “Bitcoin ‘Rebound Only for Selling’: Three Core Arguments from BTC Market Bears”
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