- Plasma currently has stable income and is involved in the stablecoin payment sector. How is this project?
The stablecoin payment sector has been very hot this past year, with many competitors participating in both the US stock market and the crypto market. Moreover, more new competitors are expected to enter in the foreseeable future.
Although these companies have gained a certain first-mover advantage, so far, I don't see any project that has a monopoly or at least a unique advantage.
I even wonder if this sector could be one of those that appears to be "dominated by giants" but ultimately doesn't yield much profit for anyone, or if its business model is difficult to monopolize and hard to establish a good business model?
There are typical examples of this in traditional industries, the most obvious being the traditional automotive and aviation industries. These two sectors are basically monopolized by a few giants, but the profits of each giant are quite average. This is especially true for airlines, where few companies can sustain a comfortable existence and earn substantial profits over the long term.
In contrast, the smartphone industry, despite also being filled with giants, allows Apple to thrive. Its shipment volume and market share are not the highest, yet it comfortably earns substantial profits.
So regarding the stablecoin payment sector, I am currently just observing and cannot yet determine which project has particular potential. I will wait until I can identify a company with a unique advantage before making a move.
- I am not even buying Ethereum right now, so I definitely won't buy UNI. What should I buy now?
I am not buying anything right now.
This state has lasted for almost half a year (the last time I bought something was earlier this year when Ethereum dropped below $2500). The reason for not buying anything in the past six months is simple—there's nothing I see worth buying. I think everything is expensive right now: stocks, crypto, precious metals; I can't identify anything that is at a low price.
- The staking income for Ethereum is about 2.6% to 3.2%. Are you staking now?
Yes, I have a portion staked on Lido.
- If we could lead a second wave to $4750 on the 10th and then sell, that would be great.
I can't lead that. I mentioned in an article a long time ago that this bull market is quite atypical, and I don't see any particularly good selling points. So I simply plan to hold onto these assets and ride through to the next cycle.
- Is Alibaba's AI application currently the best? If we participate, should we buy Alibaba stock directly or buy Alibaba-related concept stocks?
I remember saying during an online discussion that among domestic AI companies, I (at that time) was most optimistic about Alibaba and Douyin. I did indeed buy Alibaba stock back then.
However, after observing for a while, I feel that Alibaba is not quite what I imagined, or that it seems a bit different from the Alibaba of Jack Ma's time.
Even though the current head of Alibaba AI is investing heavily in AI and has released several impressive open-source large models, I still feel that its current AI efforts seem more focused on hitting metrics, like completing tasks for the sake of AI, which doesn't feel quite right, so I sold my Alibaba shares.
Now, I neither own Alibaba stock nor its related concept stocks.
- What do you think of Circle?
My view on Circle, as a stablecoin issuer, is quite similar to my view on stablecoin payment companies.
Although it seems that this field is approaching a state of near monopoly, with Circle being the dominant player among compliant companies, I am uncertain about its future profit potential.
Circle's business model is relatively straightforward: after issuing stablecoins, it uses the dollars obtained to buy government bonds, and the yield from these bonds is its primary source of income.
This primary income depends on two factors: dollar reserves (principal) x government bond yield.
The yield on US government bonds has stabilized at around 2% to 3% in the long term, so this factor can be considered a constant.
That leaves only one variable: dollar reserves (principal), which is how many stablecoins it can issue. I currently cannot assess its future market potential in this regard. I am unclear if there are substantial barriers or moats in terms of market expansion.
Furthermore, a portion of Circle's profits also needs to be shared with Coinbase, meaning that its final net profit will be reduced by that amount.
Therefore, I am currently just observing this company and have never bought its stock, even though its price has dropped significantly from its highs.
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