Polymarket's actions in 2025 are particularly noteworthy. By returning to the U.S. market in compliance, integrating wallets with mainstream platforms, and injecting institutional capital, Polymarket is steadily moving from the fringes of crypto to the mainstream. The logic and potential impact behind this deserve serious attention.
Polymarket has clearly advanced its relaunch in the U.S. market, having acquired a regulated derivatives trading and clearinghouse to pave the way for legal and compliant operations. At the same time, the entry of large institutional capital provides significant support for platform financing and valuation enhancement. Polymarket has also integrated with the mainstream Ethereum wallet MetaMask, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading without leaving their wallets. Mainstream financial information platforms have begun to display prediction market data, further increasing market visibility.
In the past, many viewed Polymarket as a gambling or crypto casino, but today it is closer to an information pricing mechanism within financial markets. The participation of a large number of users and institutions makes the probability pricing of future events in prediction markets more representative and liquid, lowering the barriers to entry and diversifying the types of participants. Prediction market data is beginning to be adopted by traditional financial media and data platforms, and its potential is gradually becoming apparent.
However, Polymarket's return to the mainstream also faces challenges. Prediction markets are not always accurate, and some studies show that their predictive accuracy is limited in certain cases. The platform's neutrality and business model have also come under scrutiny, such as when it starts hiring internal traders to market-make for itself, which could undermine its credibility as a neutral market. Event markets inherently have information asymmetry and insider risks; when participants gain information in advance, prediction markets may be abused, harming the interests of ordinary users. Compliant operations also face institutional uncertainties related to regulation, taxation, and disclosure.
Polymarket's revival and transformation hold significant implications for the crypto market and the broader financial system. By converting public expectations into tradable probabilities, prediction markets may complement traditional analysis and polling, providing real-time, decentralized sentiment and expectation signals in areas such as macroeconomics, policy, technology, and geopolitics. As traditional financial institutions invest resources to promote compliance and the implementation of structured products, DeFi is no longer just an alternative asset pool but is gradually acquiring infrastructure and legitimacy similar to traditional finance. The application of prediction markets is also expanding, covering not only crypto assets but potentially involving stocks, macroeconomics, sports events, and technology product launches, thereby tightening the connection between the crypto ecosystem and the real world.
If Polymarket and similar platforms continue to move towards compliance, stable operations, and are adopted by more mainstream financial services, they may become the next generation of market infrastructure, a type of event-driven financial instrument alongside stocks, bonds, and options. In the coming years, the neutrality of the platform, predictive accuracy, compliance environment, participant structure, and the maturity of related financial products will directly impact its development.
In summary, Polymarket's revival and transformation are not just a lively story within the crypto circle but may also signify the transition of prediction markets from fringe experiments to mainstream financial infrastructure. Behind this transformation is a deep reflection on the information pricing mechanism and the reshaping of financial infrastructure. What it brings is not just a new way of trading but may also reconstruct how investors view and participate in future events and asset pricing.
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Original: “Polymarket Revival: The Mainstreaming and Future Outlook of Crypto Prediction Markets”
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