Polymarket traders are piling into the “Yes” side of a high-stakes wager: Will President Trump declassify UFO, or UAP, files before 2025 ends? The market’s implied probability shot from single-digits early Dec. 7 to the mid-70s within hours, briefly touching 81%, an eye-catching vertical leap for a contract that had drifted quietly for months.

The contract resolves only if the administration officially releases previously classified UFO-related documents, videos, or reports before Dec. 31. Hints or promises won’t cut it, and Polymarket requires direct government disclosure or broadly verified reporting to confirm a “Yes.” Traders appear unfazed by those strict criteria, with more than $233,000 flowing into the market as buyers scooped up shares around 76 to 77 cents.

The frenzy kicked off midday when large orders pushed the chart nearly straight up. Polymarket amplified the moment by posting a screenshot captioned “BREAKING: Trump projected to declassify the UFO Files this year.” Liquidity remained modest, but the speed and scale of the repricing suggested either strong conviction or fear of missing out (FOMO) — both common ingredients in prediction-market fireworks.

Why do so many believe Trump might actually go through with it? His past comments provide plenty of fodder. He has expressed curiosity about UFOs, reacted enthusiastically to Pentagon footage in 2020, and repeatedly pitched himself as a transparency-first president. Reports during the 2024 campaign claimed he intended to release unreleased footage if reelected, a talking point that resurfaces anytime UFO speculation gains momentum.

Bipartisan pressure offers another push. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer urged Trump earlier this year to declassify UAP materials as part of broader transparency legislation. Congressional hearings, Pentagon hiring for UAP-related roles, and public calls for clarity have created a political environment where such a move, at least theoretically, could happen.

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UFO activists add further fuel. Disclosure figure Dr. Steven Greer claimed in January he met with Trump officials and reviewed drafts of executive orders for UAP transparency. Others argue Trump’s reputation for releasing classified material — from Crossfire Hurricane files to assorted political documents — shows a willingness to push past bureaucratic reluctance. Enthusiasts fold these threads together and envision a dramatic reveal.

Moreover, five days ago, Newsnation reported that investigative journalist Michael Shellenberger contends the U.S. has handed recovered UFO and UAP technology to private contractors. “[Trump] needs to speak directly to the American people and explain what’s going on here. There [are] conflicting messages,” Shellenberger said on Tuesday during an episode of Elizabeth Vargas Reports.

For now, Polymarket traders are treating possibility as probability. Whether they’re early prophets or simply enjoying an expensive thrill ride will become clear before the calendar flips.

• What is Polymarket betting on?
  It is wagering on whether Trump will officially declassify previously classified UFO or UAP files before Dec. 31, 2025.
• How high did the odds climb?
  They jumped from around 6% to the mid-70s and briefly touched 81% on Dec. 7.
• Why do traders think Trump might do it?
  His past comments, congressional pressure, and claims from UFO advocates fuel expectations.
• Has anything been confirmed?
  No official announcement or government leak indicates the release is imminent.

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