Despite bitcoin's recent sharp price declines, Wall Street Bank JPMorgan is sticking to its volatility-adjusted BTC-versus-gold model target which points to a theoretical price near $170,000 over the next six to 12 months.
The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading around $91,200 at publication time.
Strategy (MSTR) is a key driver for bitcoin , with markets watching its enterprise value-to-bitcoin holdings (mNAV) ratio, now about 1.13, as a key read on forced-selling risk if it slips below 1.0, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the Wednesday report.
It’s encouraging that the company’s mNAV is still holding above 1.0, the report said.
The analysts pointed to the company's $1.4 billion reserve fund as a buffer against needing to sell bitcoin, and flagged MSCI’s Jan. 15 index decision as an asymmetric catalyst: exclusion is largely priced in after the stock’s steep fall since Oct. 10, while a positive outcome could fuel a sharp rebound.
The company founded by Michael Saylor is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, with 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet. The firm has been under fire in recent weeks after the price of the leading cryptocurrency plummeted from an all-time high over $120,000 to as low as $82,000.
Among other reasons, the bank linked bitcoin's recent pullback to renewed pressure on mining in China and a retreat by higher-cost miners elsewhere, some of whom have reportedly sold bitcoin as energy costs stay high.
JPMorgan reduced its bitcoin production-cost estimate to $90,000 from $94,000 after recent drops in the hashrate and mining difficulty.
The hashrate is the network’s total computing power devoted to mining and validating transactions on a proof-of-work blockchain, and it’s often used as a proxy for mining competition and difficulty.
A prolonged stretch below production cost can become self-reinforcing as marginal miners exit, reducing difficulty and pushing the cost estimate lower, as seen in 2018, the analysts said.
The post-Oct. 10 deleveraging in perpetual futures appears mostly behind, the report added.
Read more: JPMorgan Warns MSCI Decision Could Force Strategy Out of Top Equity Indices
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