Original / Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
As 2025 comes to a close, it also means that the time until the current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's "departure" is getting closer, and speculation about the candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman continues in the market.
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously reported, the list of candidates has now narrowed down to five, which includes both "Trump faction figure" Kevin Hassett and hawkish Kevin Warsh. The final winner among these five candidates will take charge of the Federal Reserve, the "heart of the U.S. economy and finance," for the next several years.
Although Hassett currently leads with a 74% probability in the Polymarket event "Trump's Nomination for Federal Reserve Chairman", considering Trump's past erratic behavior, the final result remains uncertain until it is announced. Odaily Planet Daily will briefly introduce the existing five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman in this article for readers' reference.
### Elimination Round for New Federal Reserve Chairman Candidates: From 11 to 5, and then 1
In August this year, when the Trump administration evaluated candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the list still contained 11 names.
At that time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the review would start in September, and the candidates were all "very strong contenders." Among them, Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, BlackRock Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder, and Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman all held an open attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
By the end of October, the candidate list had narrowed down to five, and among the four "crypto-friendly" candidates mentioned earlier, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman were all on the list. This shows that Trump administration officials still adhere to the standard of "crypto-friendly attitude" in selecting candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman. As for former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, he has attracted attention for his hawkish style, perhaps only serving as a "prince's companion" to show fairness.
On December 1, Trump stated emphatically: "I know who I want to choose as the Federal Reserve Chairman, and I will announce it soon." Combined with previous news from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trump's choice is expected to be revealed before Christmas. Below is a basic introduction to the existing five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily for readers' reference.
"Top Contender": Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, Trump Faction Figure, Crypto Friendliness: High
At the end of November, according to insiders revealing, as the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chairman entered its final weeks, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett had become the top contender to take over the Federal Reserve in the eyes of the White House advisory group and Trump's allies.
The reason is simple: based on current information, if Hassett is nominated, he will become Trump's "dovish nail" embedded in the independent central bank of the Federal Reserve, bringing Trump's rate-cutting philosophy into the Federal Reserve from a top-level planning perspective, which is precisely one of the criticisms Trump had against the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
As the most direct way for a U.S. president to influence central bank decisions, the selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman and board members has always been regarded as "one of the greatest powers in the president's hands." During Trump's first term, Powell was nominated by him, and when the latter failed to advance rate cuts as expected, Trump expressed deep regret over that decision.
In the field of economic policy, Hassett undoubtedly belongs to Trump's loyal supporters and is a vocal "rate cutter." He previously stated that if he were to lead the Federal Reserve, "he would immediately implement rate cuts" because "the data supports this decision." He also stated, "If I lead the Federal Reserve, hiring world-class forecasting experts who truly build nonlinear time series models would be a wise investment. I believe that leaders with this understanding will help the Federal Reserve achieve better development."
Moreover, his friendly attitude towards the crypto market, viewing Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against inflation, may promote a relaxation of regulations on the crypto market. According to Bloomberg's related report in June this year, due to his role as an advisor to the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Hassett holds Coinbase stock worth at least $1 million, potentially up to $5 million.
"Hawkish Candidate": Kevin Warsh, Former Federal Reserve Governor, Crypto Friendliness: Low
As a former government official who served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, Kevin Warsh has experience dealing with the 2008 financial crisis; in addition, he has served as a researcher at the Hoover Institution, with personal policy positions leaning hawkish, favoring interest rate tightening and prioritizing inflation prevention, and advocating for a reduction in the central bank's balance sheet. Undoubtedly, he does not belong to the "rate-cutting faction," so despite being one of the key figures in the Republican economic circle, his economic policy stance does not overlap much with Trump's.
As for his attitude towards cryptocurrencies, his public stance is somewhat contradictory.
In an interview with CNBC at the beginning of 2021, he stated, "In an economic situation where the dollar is weakening, Bitcoin makes sense as part of an investment portfolio." In 2022, he also invested in BTC and ETH ETF major asset management firm Bitwise. By rights, he could be considered a "crypto-friendly person," but unlike Trump, he does not openly oppose CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) and instead supports CBDC digital dollars.
It is worth mentioning that he also served as VP/ED in Morgan Stanley's M&A department and was a bridge between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis, mediating between government agencies and capital giants.
Last November, Trump once considered Kevin Warsh for the position of Treasury Secretary, with the intention of later taking over as Federal Reserve Chairman. However, Scott Bessent ultimately became the best candidate.
"Neutral Figure": Christopher Waller, Current Federal Reserve Governor, Crypto Friendliness: Medium
As the current Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller's policy stance leans towards a moderate dovish position, supporting gradual rate cuts. He has publicly stated that digital assets can serve as a complement to payment tools and opposes CBDC, believing that under proper regulation, stablecoins can enhance the dollar's status.
Waller's prudent style may limit the occurrence of significant monetary policy easing, and relatively speaking, there will not be the large rate cuts that Trump expects or the continued tightening policies maintained by hawkish figures.
However, compared to others, Waller does not have a background in large investment banks or major investment funds; his main active areas are concentrated in academia and the Federal Reserve. In the post-pandemic monetary policy stance, he is mainly recognized by Wall Street as a neutral hawkish Federal Reserve Governor, with little connection to Wall Street, possessing a certain degree of independence.
Additionally, it is worth mentioning that due to Hassett's high profile, there has been strong opposition from Wall Street and insiders in the U.S. business community, leading to a collective effort to try to prevent Trump from nominating Hassett as the new Federal Reserve Chairman in order to safeguard the independence of the Federal Reserve. Waller is therefore seen as a potentially suitable candidate, and his current position as a Federal Reserve Governor means that if he receives Trump's nomination, he would only need one round of nomination voting to be elected.
"Financial Giant": Rick Rieder, Current Executive at BlackRock, Crypto Friendliness: High
As the Chief of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, Rick Rieder directly controls the allocation of trillions of dollars in funds, with no background as a career politician, no experience as a Federal Reserve Governor, and no government department political experience. He has previously been viewed as one of the "king of bonds" due to his donation records to the Republican Party. His monetary policy stance is somewhat dovish. He emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should remain cautious and flexible after reaching a neutral interest rate.
Of course, as a current executive at BlackRock, his friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies is beyond doubt. He has previously stated that "Bitcoin is the gold of the 21st century," believing that in an environment where traditional asset correlations are converging, cryptocurrencies have unique hedging and risk-averse value.
However, given his Wall Street capital background, it is difficult to gain sufficient political support in the current political environment. After all, to some extent, the Federal Reserve needs to maintain its political and economic position as an independent central bank, which naturally conflicts with Wall Street capital. After all, it is unreasonable to expect the Federal Reserve to be at the mercy of Wall Street figures. Therefore, his chances of taking office are relatively low.
"Transparent Companion": Michelle Bowman, Current Federal Reserve Governor, Crypto Friendliness: Medium
As the current Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman was labeled as hawkish by Democrats in her early years for "speaking for big banks," but now her public statements tend to reflect a neutral to dovish monetary policy.
In August this year, she stated, "Considering concerns about the vitality of the labor market and the overall U.S. economy, there should be three rate cuts this year." She expressed concern that further delaying rate cuts could "lead to a deterioration in the labor market and further slow economic growth."
In October this year, she made a high-profile statement: "I continue to expect two more rate cuts before the end of this year."
Additionally, her family owns a small bank, and she has previously served as the bank's director. She has also criticized regulatory agencies for being overly cautious in their regulation of cryptocurrencies, advocating for a "relaxation" of the banking and regulatory system.
Despite this, considering her personal banking background and earlier statements, she is likely to be a runner-up in the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination.
As of the time of writing, the "Trump's Nomination for Federal Reserve Chairman" event on Polymarket** shows the following probabilities:**
- Hassett: 74%
- Kevin Warsh: 13%
- Christopher Waller: 5.3%
- Scott Bessent: 3.4%
- Rick Rieder: 2.9%
- Michelle Bowman: 1.6%.
Whether Polymarket can successfully reveal this year's new Federal Reserve Chairman nominee, just as it successfully predicted Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election last year, remains to be seen.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
