According to this week's market performance, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin in both price performance and trading-related open-ended index fund (ETF) capital flows, reinforcing the narrative of capital rotation. Over the past two weeks, the spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $360 million, while Bitcoin saw $120 million, indicating a shift in investor preference in the short term.
Key Points:
The capital inflow attracted by the spot Ethereum ETF is three times that of Bitcoin, reinforcing its relative momentum.
Ethereum's price performance on higher time frames has surpassed that of Bitcoin, suggesting that Ethereum has bottomed out.
According to CryptoQuant data, the average order size indicator for spot markets shows a clear behavioral shift in the Ethereum market. When Ethereum fell below $2,700 on November 21, retail buyers actively entered the market, triggering a rapid rebound driven by demand. This echoes the previous accumulation phase, particularly during the period from March to May, where early retail activity often precedes deeper pullbacks.
Historically, retail-driven local bottom rebounds typically lead to eventual liquidity revisits, shaking out late buyers before a stronger rebound occurs. This dynamic suggests that ETH may still allow for a controlled pullback to reset positions and prepare for a more sustained upward trend.
Meanwhile, Ethereum's net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) is currently close to 0.22, indicating market balance, which means investors are maintaining moderate profits without falling into euphoria.
Importantly, the NUPL has not yet dropped into negative territory, indicating that the holder structure remains strong, reducing the likelihood of further selling pressure. As long as the NUPL stays above 0.20, market sentiment will support a rebound when catalysts align.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum exhibits a clearer high time frame (HTF) pattern than Bitcoin. Recently, Ethereum confirmed a structural breakout (BOS) by breaking above $3,200, setting a new 20-day high, showing that buyers have converted previous resistance into support and initiated a trend reversal.
However, Bitcoin still needs to close decisively above $96,000 to confirm its own breakout, allowing Ethereum to maintain a structural advantage.
The ETH/BTC daily chart further strengthens this advantage. The pair recently broke out of a 30-day consolidation range, which had repeatedly limited upward attempts.
The breakout was supported by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which has remained solid since July. Historically, when ETH/BTC reclaims the 200-day SMA and breaks out of multi-week ranges, it coincides with periods of sustained outperformance for ETH.
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $94,000 and closes above $96,000, it will alleviate further upward pressure on altcoins. In this scenario, Ethereum is expected to continue its recently established upward trend by retesting the swing high of $3,650; if momentum accelerates, it could point to the next extension level of $3,900, representing an approximate 20% increase from the current price, where external liquidity clusters are currently gathering.
Related: Experts: Are non-custodial crypto wallets the key to achieving mass self-custody?
Original: “Ethereum Outpaces Bitcoin (BTC) Trend Turning Point: Will ETH See a 20% Surge?”
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