Digital asset manager Grayscale Investments’ research team published a report on Dec. 1 that evaluated bitcoin’s recent decline and focused on its market outlook. The group concluded that the downturn fits within typical bull-market behavior and indicated that bitcoin may potentially reach new highs in 2026 based on multiple technical, structural, and macro factors.

The report states:

Grayscale Research does not believe bitcoin is on the cusp of a deep and prolonged cyclical drawdown, and we expect prices to potentially make new highs next year.

“Tactically, some indicators point to a short-term bottom while others are still mixed. Into year-end, positive catalysts may include another rate cut from the Fed and bipartisan progress on crypto legislation,” Grayscale noted. The team argued that bitcoin’s pullbacks — historically frequent and often sharp — do not imply a multiyear bear market. They added: “Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year.”

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To support this view, the firm’s analysts pointed to the absence of a parabolic rally, which typically signals overheating, and the growing importance of exchange-traded product (ETP) flows and institutional treasuries as stabilizing sources of demand. The group also observed increased hedging and reduced speculation, noting:

There are already some signs that bitcoin and other crypto assets may have bottomed.

Still, they acknowledged that weaker futures activity, earlier ETP outflows, and selling from long-time holders mean that confirmation of a sustained recovery is not yet definitive.

Grayscale’s projections for bitcoin rely heavily on evolving macroeconomic and regulatory conditions. A December Federal Reserve rate cut would lower real interest rates, a dynamic historically associated with stronger performance in alternative assets that compete with the U.S. Dollar. The team outlined that bipartisan work on crypto legislation could further improve market structure, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and support institutional adoption. They argued that these developments would reinforce long-term demand even if near-term trading remains choppy.

• What key factor supports Grayscale’s view that bitcoin’s decline remains within bull-market norms?
  The report highlights that bitcoin’s historically sharp pullbacks do not indicate a multiyear bear trend.
• Why does Grayscale believe bitcoin could make new highs in 2026?
  The team cites macro shifts, institutional demand, and technical indicators as supportive forces.
• How might a Federal Reserve rate cut influence bitcoin?
  Lower real interest rates have historically benefited alternative assets such as bitcoin.
• What regulatory development does Grayscale view as a potential catalyst?
  Bipartisan progress on crypto legislation could strengthen market structure and adoption.

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