Key Points:
Bitcoin and Ethereum have a low leverage preference, contrasting with a strong stock market, emphasizing that despite improved liquidity expectations, sentiment remains fragile.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, anticipated monetary easing has reduced the downside risk for cryptocurrencies, favoring potential bullish momentum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum strengthened on Wednesday, rising to a two-week high as investors awaited more expansionary monetary policy. Weak economic indicators boosted expectations for new stimulus measures, increasing demand for scarce assets.
The S&P 500 index and gold also reacted positively, as investors anticipated higher liquidity flowing into the market. Nevertheless, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remains 29% lower than its historical high of $4 trillion, and Bitcoin and Ethereum traders remain cautious about a potential pullback driven by broader economic uncertainty.
On Wednesday, demand for scarce assets strengthened, with U.S. 5-year Treasury prices jumping, and gold nearing $4,240, up 3% over two weeks. Bitcoin held around $93,000, unchanged from two weeks ago. Ethereum, however, remains 37% below its historical high of $4,956, prompting traders to reassess the outlook for the altcoin market.
The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing in November, with private companies cutting 32,000 jobs, and small businesses facing the toughest environment. The ADP payroll report indicated that worker wages fell 0.1% from October, easing inflation concerns. Traders are now awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 10 for clearer policy guidance.
Federal Reserve policymakers have signaled a divergence, partly due to a lack of official U.S. data during the government funding lapse that ended on November 12. Some believe a rate cut is necessary to prevent further weakening of the labor market, while others warn that additional cuts could exacerbate inflation, which remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
The increasing reliance of some of the world's largest companies on artificial intelligence investments adds another layer of uncertainty. Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Institute, reportedly stated, "There has been too much discussion about bubble potential… people are realizing the risks." According to Yahoo Finance, BlackRock also emphasized the physical limitations of large-scale AI data center expansion.
U.S. department store operator Macy's stated on Wednesday that its outlook reflects cautious consumer spending and ongoing pressure from higher tariffs, which it expects will weigh on performance in the last few months of 2025. In an interview with CNBC, CEO Tony Spring mentioned that Macy's has been forced to implement "selective" price increases across most categories.
The demand for bullish leveraged positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum remains unusually low. Under neutral conditions, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts should fall between 6% and 12% to cover funding costs. Given that the U.S. Russell 2000 small-cap index is only 2.3% below its historical high, this lack of confidence is particularly notable.
The stock market is expected to directly benefit from expansionary monetary policy through lower funding costs and government incentives related to AI and nuclear infrastructure. If sentiment does not shift, cryptocurrencies may continue to lag as employment market conditions weaken and uncertainty accumulates.
Despite weak employment and consumer data, there is no imminent risk of a collapse in cryptocurrencies. The anticipated liquidity boost should help alleviate economic pressures and maintain a preference for scarce assets. As long as monetary conditions continue to ease, Bitcoin and Ethereum are more likely to recover modestly rather than face a sharp reversal.
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Related: Further, 3iQ launches $100 million fund for compounded returns in Bitcoin (BTC)
Original article: “Crypto Market Bounces, But Weak U.S. Macro Data and AI Uncertainty Threaten Recovery”
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