Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Bitcoin Breaks Downward Channel, Ethereum Bullish Trend Continues (December 4, 2025)
I. Market Review
(A) Bitcoin (BTC)
Yesterday, Bitcoin showed a fluctuating upward trend, reaching a key resistance level of $94,200 on the 1-hour chart (this resistance level has been tracked for six months). After facing resistance, it briefly retraced to a low of $92,600, then quickly rebounded and maintained high-level fluctuations. From the structural perspective, yesterday's market formed a pattern where bulls gradually engulfed bears, with bearish momentum continuing to weaken and bulls starting to take the initiative. The contest for the $94,200 round number has become the short-term focus. It is worth noting that Bitcoin successfully held the support level of $91,800 yesterday and did not break below the previously drawn downward channel extension, laying the foundation for subsequent upward movement.
(B) Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum's performance was relatively stable, continuously breaking through the $3,200 round number yesterday, which aligns closely with previous expectations (an opportunity to position at $3,100 was previously indicated on social platforms). From the 4-hour chart perspective, Ethereum has firmly held the support level of $3,100, and after the breakout, the bullish trend has further solidified, with market fluctuations completely in line with the anticipated rhythm.
II. Today's Market Outlook and Technical Analysis
(A) Bitcoin (BTC)
Trend Judgment: The 4-hour chart has firmly established the support level of $91,800 and successfully broken through the upper boundary of the downward channel, with a bullish trend gradually emerging and a clear upward logic in the short term.
Key Price Levels: The core resistance level above is focused on $95,700, while the strong support level below is $91,800; in the short cycle, the 30-minute chart is at a relatively high level, and the 15-minute chart is approaching the previous high, with $93,600 becoming a short-term secondary resistance level.
Technical Details: The momentum on the 1-hour chart has weakened, and the 15-minute chart is expected to pull back to the mid-line before rebounding, overall presenting a pattern of short-term fluctuations and long-term upward movement.
(B) Ethereum (ETH)
Trend Judgment: Although there was a short-term bearish test after breaking through $3,200, the 4-hour and 2-hour charts still maintain an upward trend, with bullish strength prevailing, and the logic of going long remains unchanged.
Key Price Levels: Subsequent target levels are $3,335, $3,400, and $3,500; the $3,100-$3,200 range forms a strong support zone, which is the core defense for bulls.
Long-term Perspective: The monthly level still tends to close with a bearish candle, and a phase of pullback may occur around Christmas, but the short-term upward trend has not been broken, and it is necessary to seize swing trading opportunities.
III. Trading Strategy and Risk Warning
(A) Trading Strategy
Bitcoin: Near $91,800, one can position long, targeting $95,700; after reaching the $95,700 resistance level, one can lightly position short, with $93,600 available for small-scale short operations.
Ethereum: Relying on the $3,200 support level, go long, targeting $3,335, $3,400, and $3,500, and do not easily change direction before breaking below $3,100.
Operating Principles: Use a trailing stop-loss strategy, gradually moving up the take-profit level as the market progresses; set a moving stop-loss to avoid excessive single losses; focus on short-term candlestick signals, flexibly adjust positions, refuse to blindly pursue "big trends," and adhere to a prudent operation.
December 4 Layout Sharing
Bitcoin short position entry at $93,500-$94,500: take profit at $93,000-$92,500-$92,000
Ethereum short position entry at $3,220-$3,250, take profit at $3,200-$3,150-$3,100
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