Recently, a website about Ethereum valuation (https://ethval.com/) suddenly became popular.

What’s interesting about this website is that it provides 10 methods for valuing Ethereum and lists the valuation results for each method.

Among these 10 methods, the lowest valuation is less than $1,000, while the highest exceeds $9,000. The website then gives a comprehensive valuation for Ethereum based on these 10 methods: $4,800.

Of these 10 methods, the ones I somewhat agree with are DCF and Revenue Yield. The reason I say "somewhat" is that I have reservations about the data and calculation methods used in their formulas.

The idea of this website reminds me of an article I wrote on April 2 of this year titled "The Business Model and Valuation of Ethereum." Compared to the approach used in that article, my overall valuation of Ethereum hasn’t changed much, but I now think more carefully about the details.

Regarding the valuation of Ethereum, there is a viewpoint in the ecosystem:

Ethereum is a completely new thing, so traditional valuation methods cannot be applied to it.

If traditional valuation methods are not used, then what methods should be used?

Thus, various esoteric and abstract valuation methods have emerged. Many of the methods listed on ethval.com fall into this category, in my opinion.

I agree that Ethereum is a completely new thing, but I believe that regardless of how new it is, its valuation must return to common sense and the essence of business:

What is the core motivation for people to buy or hold it?

Clearly, it is not like Bitcoin, which is treated as "digital gold" or a collectible; rather, it is ultimately meant to be used.

Some people buy it not to use it but to hope it appreciates in value.

Others buy it expecting to earn a staking yield of 2% to 3% per year through collateralization.

However, whether it appreciates or provides staking yields, the ultimate driver will still hinge on it being a necessity—this necessity, in my view, ultimately means that someone has to "use it."

Without this necessity, there are plenty of POS tokens in the crypto ecosystem that offer seemingly good staking yields every year, but why are there so few buyers?

The reason lies here.

Since its core must ultimately focus on "using it," then based on this nature, its value source is the income generated by the entire system, specifically the ETH fees paid by users for using the Ethereum mainnet.

I previously calculated a valuation for Uniswap using future cash flows. We can still use this method to calculate a valuation for Ethereum.

Ethereum is also a perpetually used platform. Assuming its future annual free cash flow income is 'a', we still use 2.5% as the risk-free return. Then the present value of Ethereum's future perpetual cash flow is calculated as:

a * 41.67

The intrinsic reasonable price per Ethereum would be:

a * 41.67 / 120 million

The most challenging part to estimate is the future annual free cash flow.

According to an article from Block Rhythm (see reference link at the end), Ethereum's total fee income for the year 2024 is estimated to be $2.48 billion. If we calculate the intrinsic reasonable market value of Ethereum based on this, it would be $103.3 billion. The intrinsic reasonable price per Ethereum would then be $861.18.

Comparing this price to the current market price of $3,000, the $3,000 market price seems "high."

But what I believe is that in the future, when Ethereum truly becomes the on-chain settlement layer for the entire world and supports crypto payments and the AI economy, its annual income will be of a scale we cannot currently imagine.

Reference link:

https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/56660

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。