Bitcoin has been in a downward trend since early October, with prices falling below its network value, suggesting a potential rebound in 2026.
Key Points:
The price of Bitcoin has fallen below its fair value, a situation that historically often indicates positive returns in the following year.
Increased network activity indicates strong adoption beyond speculation.
Bitcoin's spot CVD has turned positive, indicating a restart of buyer activity.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin's price is 31.4% lower than its all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6.
This pullback has caused Bitcoin's price to fall below its network value (Metcalfe) for the first time in two years. Economist Timothy Peterson states that this situation has historically shown a high predictive accuracy for Bitcoin's recovery.
Bitcoin's Metcalfe value is derived from the theoretical fair price based on Metcalfe's Law, which states that Bitcoin's price is related to the growth of active addresses and transactions (i.e., network value). This means that the more wallets and transactions there are, the higher Bitcoin's fair price.
This divergence indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued compared to the expanding network (such as active addresses) and often occurs after excessive speculation.
"While this doesn't necessarily mean a bottom has been reached, it does indicate that most leverage has been cleared and the 'bubble' has deflated," Peterson stated in a post on X platform on Tuesday, adding:
Notably, when Bitcoin/USD fell below its fair value in 2019 and 2020, prices saw significant rebounds in the following months. The most recent instance occurred in early 2023, when Bitcoin rose over 340% and reached a previous all-time high of $74,000 in March 2024.
With the network growth remaining intact and a significant increase in the number of investors holding Bitcoin for over six months, the probability of Bitcoin's recovery appears high.
Hope. The first uptick in 6M holders since the April lows. pic.twitter.com/vFijIByTZI
Additional data from Nansen shows that the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network increased by 15% over the past week, reaching 3.06 million, which is a positive signal for adoption and utility.
Looking ahead to 2026, continued institutional buying and macro tailwinds such as Federal Reserve easing may push Bitcoin back above the Metcalfe value trend line by mid-year and challenge new all-time highs.
Spot market data also supports the judgment of Bitcoin's rebound.
According to Glassnode, the spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta, an indicator measuring the difference in buy and sell volume over time) has shifted from -$106.6 million to $29 million in the past week.
This indicates "stronger inflows of buyer capital and a shift in sentiment," the on-chain data provider stated, adding in its latest Weekly Market Impulse report:
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin needs to regain momentum through higher trading volumes and a sustained recovery in spot CVD for BTC to return to six figures.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) surges to $93,000 after a pullback on Sunday, analysts eye the $100,000 mark
Original: “Bitcoin Valuation Metric Projects 96% Chance of BTC Price Recovery in 2026”
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